Obviously, Davis is a special talent. I'd actually say that he's in a class of his own. He should be the #1 pick in the draft if he comes out (if NBA GMs aren't more stupid than I thought).
But how does our Andre Roberson's impact on games compare to Davis's?
Davis is 6'10" to Dre's 6'7". That alone makes them different players and gives Davis an advantage. Also, Davis is playing on a better overall team with more guys on his own team who are "gonna get theirs".
Moving beyond that, let's see what the numbers say?
With a tip of the hat to Ken Pomeroy:
Defensive Stat Ranks
Offensive Stat Ranks
On defense, Davis and Roberson end about the same percentage of possessions. Davis is at 39.46% and Roberson is at 38.92% (the 3 stats added together). Roberson's Steal % was actually a 3.5% as a freshman, so if he'd matched that he would have ended up above Davis. Regardless, Roberson impacts CU's games from the defensive end similarly to how much Davis impacted Kentucky games this year.
Where we see the difference is on the offensive end. Davis was incredibly efficient. In fact, KenPom's stats put him #2 in the nation in Offensive Rating (135.6) while Roberson was unranked with an ORtg of 108.7 in 2011-12. Roberson is the better rebounder, even on the offensive end. He's also a 3 pt threat (.380 3pt%) while Davis is a liability when he steps out (.150 3pt%). But everything else is heavily weighted to Davis. In fact, Roberson actually regressed in some ways as a sophomore versus his freshman year. As a frosh, Roberson's eFG% was 61.5 (7.2% greater), his TS% was 60.9 (4.4% greater) and his rebounding OR% was 15.1 (2.4% greater and #16 in the nation). Progression was seen in 3pt% (up 0.37%) and FTRate (up 13.1%). So he did show significant improvement knocking down jumpers and of getting to the line.
In the final analysis, the offensive ratings are where Davis really outshined Roberson this season. Defensively, they are both game changers. For Andre to take the next step in his development, lead the Buffs deep into the tournament, and become a lottery pick, he's got to improve the following for next year:
- Shoot a much higher percentage from 2pt range
- Get to the foul line more often
- Force more steals (like he did as a freshman)
- Continue to improve his shot blocking
- Maintain or improve in other categories
If Roberson does all that, he'll truly be CU's Anthony Davis in 2012-13... just a few inches shorter. That's national awards & draft lottery territory.
But how does our Andre Roberson's impact on games compare to Davis's?
Davis is 6'10" to Dre's 6'7". That alone makes them different players and gives Davis an advantage. Also, Davis is playing on a better overall team with more guys on his own team who are "gonna get theirs".
Moving beyond that, let's see what the numbers say?
With a tip of the hat to Ken Pomeroy:
Defensive Stat Ranks
| Rebounding % | Block % | Steals % | |
| Anthony Davis | #49 (23.7%) | #3 (13.76%) | NR (2.5%) |
| Andre Roberson | #2 (29.6%) | #91 (6.72%) | #476 (2.6%) |
Offensive Stat Ranks
| eFG % | Total Shooting % | Rebounding % | FT Rate | |
| Anthony Davis | #10 (64.4%) | #8 (66.7%) | #184 (11.4%) | #81 (60.2%) |
| Andre Roberson | #313 (54.3%) | #389 (56.5%) | #89 (12.7%) | #117 (56.8%) |
On defense, Davis and Roberson end about the same percentage of possessions. Davis is at 39.46% and Roberson is at 38.92% (the 3 stats added together). Roberson's Steal % was actually a 3.5% as a freshman, so if he'd matched that he would have ended up above Davis. Regardless, Roberson impacts CU's games from the defensive end similarly to how much Davis impacted Kentucky games this year.
Where we see the difference is on the offensive end. Davis was incredibly efficient. In fact, KenPom's stats put him #2 in the nation in Offensive Rating (135.6) while Roberson was unranked with an ORtg of 108.7 in 2011-12. Roberson is the better rebounder, even on the offensive end. He's also a 3 pt threat (.380 3pt%) while Davis is a liability when he steps out (.150 3pt%). But everything else is heavily weighted to Davis. In fact, Roberson actually regressed in some ways as a sophomore versus his freshman year. As a frosh, Roberson's eFG% was 61.5 (7.2% greater), his TS% was 60.9 (4.4% greater) and his rebounding OR% was 15.1 (2.4% greater and #16 in the nation). Progression was seen in 3pt% (up 0.37%) and FTRate (up 13.1%). So he did show significant improvement knocking down jumpers and of getting to the line.
In the final analysis, the offensive ratings are where Davis really outshined Roberson this season. Defensively, they are both game changers. For Andre to take the next step in his development, lead the Buffs deep into the tournament, and become a lottery pick, he's got to improve the following for next year:
- Shoot a much higher percentage from 2pt range
- Get to the foul line more often
- Force more steals (like he did as a freshman)
- Continue to improve his shot blocking
- Maintain or improve in other categories
If Roberson does all that, he'll truly be CU's Anthony Davis in 2012-13... just a few inches shorter. That's national awards & draft lottery territory.
