Andre Roberson: The Reason We're Going To Have An Extra 2013 Scholarship

[Goose]

There's been a lot of discussion over Andre Roberson potentially going pro after next season, but ultimately no one except for him (and possibly Tad who apparently is all knowing) really knows what he's thinking. So after messing around on KenPom.com a bit and talking to both 'Nik and PacHoops about it, I came up with five potential comparisons for Dre from the last decade so we could compare their numbers and see what kind of a draft slot that Dre would be looking at if he went pro early. I wanted to include both the Grant brothers (Horace & Harvey) and Dennis Rodman, but the lack of "advanced" stats from that era are lacking, and I wanted to give something that JGIsland could use in the middle of a bar debate. So with that, I give you the numbers from Dre's sophomore season compared to the five players that I deemed legit comparisons.

	MPG	PPG	RPG	OR%	DR%	APG	TORate	SPG	BPG	FG%	3PT%	FT%	eFG%	Poss%	ORtg	Drafted
Andre Roberson (Soph)	30.2	11.6	11.1	12.7%	29.6%	1.2	16.5%	1.3	1.9	51.0%	38.0%	61.4%	54.3%	21.9%	108.7
Joey Dorsey (Sr)	25.2	6.9	9.5	15.2%	25.7%	0.5	16.5%	1.1	1.9	64.7%	0.0%	37.8%	64.7%	14.7%	113.4	33rd pick​
Kenneth Faried (Sr)	34.7	17.3	14.5	19.9%	31.6%	1.1	18.1%	1.9	2.3	62.3%	N/A	57.7%	62.3%	25.8%	116.2	22nd pick​
Kawhi Leonard (Jr)	32.6	15.5	10.6	11.2%	26.6%	2.5	14.6%	1.4	0.6	44.4%	29.1%	75.9%	47.1%	27.5%	109.3	15th pick​
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (Sr)	29.0	8.8	6.0	9.5%	15.7%	1.5	21.1%	1.0	0.5	47.8%	20.0%	68.9%	48.8%	18.8%	102.5	37th pick​
Tyrus Thomas (Frosh)	25.9	12.3	9.2	12.6%	26.1%	1.3	18.6%	1.0	3.1	60.8%	100.0%	65.7%	61.0%	22.0%	116.1	4th pick​

The first thing I want to point out is that this is a very small sample size, so it's hard to read too much into it. Now that that disclaimer is out of the way, I will say that heading in to this exercise, I was still on the fence on if Dre would be smart to go pro after next season. After looking over the numbers, I think it's a foregone conclusion at this point. Assuming Dre stays the same number wise, he's already putting up numbers similar to most of the guys on this list. His rebounding numbers are only worse than Faried's (and it's at this point that I think we all need to look and see just how damn good Faried was his senior year. Those numbers are insane), he only turns the ball over more than Leonard, and he's right in the discussion on steals & blocks per game (no, I didn't use S% & B%, and I realize that JG is silently sighing and shaking his head, but I'm lazy so deal with it). The one area that Dre lags behind is the area that all of us are expecting him to spend the most time improving -- his shooting %. If he can knock his 3 point shooting percentage up a notch or two, that would improve his eFG% and probably knock his Offensive Rating back in to the 110-114 range.

That said, yesterday on twitter, JG & Rumblin got into a bit of a discussion on what would be the best course for Dre -- if he should work on rounding out his game and improving his offensive touch or if he should just continue to develop his rebounding and defense so he can go extreme beast mode. Until Rumblin had mentioned it, I had never thought about that path, but he has a good point -- great rebounding and defense is finally starting to be appreciated by NBA GM's (although not as much as it should be yet), so that may be a better path to the NBA for him. It's definitely something to watch this upcoming season.

Looking over those numbers, and knowing his athleticism/"potential" (a word all NBA GM's love), I think it's a safe bet to say that Dre would be a first round pick next year. Right now NBADraft.net has him as the #15 pick in the 2013 Draft and DraftExpress has him as the #19 pick. The 2013 NBA Draft won't be nearly as deep as the 2012 draft is, so that is in Dre's favor as well. If he's a first round pick, as much as it would suck for the Buffs 2013-14 squad, you have to say "Go". I hate to say it, but we'd better appreciate Dre this upcoming year as it may be his last in the black & gold.

One random note I wanted to add that may only be of interest to me -- On every KenPom page, it will list the "best" statistical matches to other players throughout history. If you look at Kenneth Faried's sophomore year, his most similar comparison is Dre's sophomore year. Just for the hell of it, here are how their two careers have lined up so far:

	MPG	PPG	RPG	OR%	DR%	APG	TORate	SPG	BPG	FG%	3PT%	FT%	eFG%	Poss%	ORtg
Faried (Frosh)	20.2	10.5	8.0	20.2%	31.0%	0.3	16.6%	1.2	0.8	51.6%	0.0%	58.0%	51.6%	29.2%	100.8
Roberson (Frosh)	22.3	6.7	7.8	15.1%	25.5%	0.9	18.3%	1.3	1.1	58.0%	34.3%	55.3%	61.5%	16.3%	118.3
Faried (Soph)	30.1	13.9	13.0	16.4%	33.8%	1.4	17.8%	1.9	1.9	55.6%	40.0%	57.7%	55.9%	24.6%	110.1
Roberson (Soph)	30.2	11.6	11.1	12.7%	29.6%	1.2	16.5%	1.3	1.9	51.0%	38.0%	61.4%	54.3%	21.9%	108.7
Faried (Jr)	30.3	16.9	13.0	16.2%	36.7%	0.5	17.1%	1.9	2.3	56.4%	25.0%	59.5%	56.5%	27.8%	109.8

If Dre can duplicate the leap in PPG that Faried was able to accomplish in his junior year, we could be looking at a lottery pick.

 

[Darth Snow]

great. effing. post.

I don't think we see a 50% jump in ppg for Roberson this next year... but if he somehow gets close to that (AND increases his rebounds)... :wow:

However, with Dre's physical ability, even small improvements in offensive skill/confidence will pay big dividends.

Yup, I'm excited for next year, even witha ll the true frosh that will be playing. I hate you Goose.

 

[Goose]

One thing I forgot to mention is that we may see Dre's rebounding numbers drop just a bit this season. We're losing Dufault and Brown, who were both decent rebounders, and replacing them with Scott & XJ (and probably Wesley Gordon as well) who are all rebound machines. I don't think it will be too noticable, but it wouldn't surprise me to see his rebounding numbers drop a touch.

 

[Darth Snow]

One thing I forgot to mention is that we may see Dre's rebounding numbers drop just a bit this season. We're losing Dufault and Brown, who were both decent rebounders, and replacing them with Scott & XJ (and probably Wesley Gordon as well) who are all rebound machines. I don't think it will be too noticable, but it wouldn't surprise me to see his rebounding numbers drop a touch.

maybe he will use that help to save his energy for offensive rebounding and boxing out? Would be nice.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Am I way off base in saying that he needs to work on his ball-handling skills? Thought behind this is that based on his size and athleticism, he's most likely to be a SF in the league. I'm not sold that he'll ever have the bulk to play the 4.

 

[tante]

If all these buffs players keep going to the NBA, I might actually start watching.

 

[RumblinBuff]

I've been thinking a lot about the Faried numbers, how much of that is skewed by him playing in a small league (albeit solid league; Ohio Valley Conference)? What kind of numbers would 'Dre put up if he got to play against the Eastern Illinois and Austin Peay's of the world for half the year?

 

[Goose]

I've been thinking a lot about the Faried numbers, how much of that is skewed by him playing in a small league (albeit solid league; Ohio Valley Conference)? What kind of numbers would 'Dre put up if he got to play against the Eastern Illinois and Austin Peay's of the world for half the year?

No doubt. And that's why, despite his numbers being behind Faried's, I think Dre has a chance of being a lottery pick where Kenneth went #22 (and thank God he did).

 

[RumblinBuff]

I really wish we had comparison points with Rodman. He's the player I think about when I see 'Dre (although 'Dre has a much better jumper), but I have no idea how Dennis played in college (South East Oklahoma State). Dennis was the master of the boxout (he would spend practices watching teammates shoot to learn tendencies and how their shots deflect off the rim, enabling him to win the positioning battle before it even started), but by the time I got to watch him every night he was a 9 year NBA vet.

 

[Buffnik]

I really wish we had comparison points with Rodman. He's the player I think about when I see 'Dre (although 'Dre has a much better jumper), but I have no idea how Dennis played in college (South East Oklahoma State). Dennis was the master of the boxout (he would spend practices watching teammates shoot to learn tendencies and how their shots deflect off the rim, enabling him to win the positioning battle before it even started), but by the time I got to watch him every night he was a 9 year NBA vet.

I took a look at Rodman when Goose started pulling this together. It's a difficult comparison because Rodman played at an NAIA college. He averaged over 25 ppg, but what does that really mean?

 

[jgisland]

Great post Goose, I was waiting for something, anything to make me quit pretending I care about the 42 play spring game.

I have lots of thoughts on Dre, so I will break them up to not have one long rambling post.

This installment - REBOUNDING

We have all mentioned it over the season and Snow mentioned it today - boxing out. Dre doesn't do it, nobody on the team did it last year. Rumblin referenced a Tad comment yesterday on the twitters, How many times do you think: "I wish Dre boxed out?" This is true, probably not that often, but you have to figure this is something that is going to be preached all summer in France and next year to Dre and the team in general. But I offer you this thought: Dre is a purely instinctive rebounder, ball goes up, Dre uses his amazing ability to read the trajectory to go get it. If he starts worrying about boxing out does that mess him up? Instead of his first thought being "shot up, go get ball" he starts thinking "put a body on a guy". While boxing out is good for team rebounding as a whole, it may not help Dre's individual numbers.

All that being said, I don't know if Dre is going to be able to use purely athleticism & instinct to rebound at the next level, so while his individual numbers could be hurt next year by improving his actual rebounding fundamentals (and the incoming frosh) this could be a good thing for him to actually succeed in the NBA.

 

[Buffnik]

There are spots when Dre should be boxing out. But usually he needs to be roaming the court looking for steals and blocked shots while anticipating rebound angles.

 

[Goose]

There are spots when Dre should be boxing out. But usually he needs to be roaming the court looking for steals and blocked shots while anticipating rebound angles.

While I would love it if Dre boxed out, I'm with 'Nik on this one. Let him do what he does best.

Now if the rest of the team would start putting a body on someone, that would be fine with me.

 

[pachoops]

Excellent post.

I think the quickest win for Dre's improvement is to get to the FT line more often. He does a fine job, no doubt, but with his quickness and size, he should be able to beat slower bigs off the dribble and post up smaller wings.

 

[Darth Snow]

Excellent post.

I think the quickest win for Dre's improvement is to get to the FT line more often. He does a fine job, no doubt, but with his quickness and size, he should be able to beat slower bigs off the dribble and post up smaller wings.

a post up game would be wonderful for Dre to have... can he get one is the question.

 

[GoBuffs!!]

Will Andre be able to to to the NBA after next season, yes, I am sure he can.

Will he? I dont think it has as much to do with stats as it has to do with, does he feel like the final year will benifit him. It can benifit him by increasing his stock in the Draft, his value of a degree, or he feels that if he came back the next year he could be a part of something big. I think that has the biggest impact to if he goes to the NBA or not.

 

[jgisland]

Offensive Game:

This is his biggest room for improvement. I present you some stats from my new fav site hoop-math.com

Player	FGA	TS%	%Shots at Rim	FG% at Rim	%Assisted at Rim	%Shots 2pt Jumpers	FG% 2pt Jumpers	%Assisted 2pt Jumpers	%Shots 3pt	FG% 3pt	%assisted 3pt	FTA/FGA	FT%
Andre Roberson	259	0.568	55%	69%	50%	28%	22%	44%	17%	40%	67%	0.57	62%

Dre can't create his own shot, the majority of his scoring comes at the rim on tip-ins or in transition. His FG% on 2pt jumpers is a horrendous 22% and while his 3pt FG% is pretty good at 40%, he shoots the majority of those wide open b/c teams give him that shot and don't even try to put a hand in his face. In the NBA he is going to have to get "hustle points", running the floor and getting quick put backs b/c he doesn't have the offensive game to knock down jumpers or have much of a back to the basket post game.

 

[RumblinBuff]

There are spots when Dre should be boxing out. But usually he needs to be roaming the court looking for steals and blocked shots while anticipating rebound angles.

His off-ball defense is a focal point of his game. It might almost be more detrimental if he were constantly standing in the paint.

 

[RumblinBuff]

Offensive Game:
Dre can't create his own shot, the majority of his scoring comes at the rim on tip-ins or in transition. His FG% on 2pt jumpers is a horrendous 22% and while his 3pt FG% is pretty good at 40%, he shoots the majority of those wide open b/c teams give him that shot and don't even try to put a hand in his face. In the NBA he is going to have to get "hustle points", running the floor and getting quick put backs b/c he doesn't have the offensive game to knock down jumpers or have much of a back to the basket post game.

Down the stretch, I remember his jumper being much more consistent. Any way to adjust those numbers for the final 15 games? Early inefficiencies I think were skewed by him putting too much pressure on himself to produce.

Do we doubt that 'Dre can grab "hustle points" at any level?

 

[jgisland]

Do we doubt that 'Dre can grab "hustle points" at any level?

Actually to a degree yes I do think he may not be able to get hustle pts, here's why:


Kenpom compares Dre to Faried. And we all see parallels in Dre to Rodman.

Dre - 6'7" 210
Faried - 6'8" 228
Rodman - 6'7" 210

Dre and Rodman are essentially the same size while Faried has 20lbs on them. I actually would have guessed Faried was bigger than that. While the Rodman comparisons are valid, it is a lot different game today than it was 20 years ago. Guys are bigger and more physical today. Dre is a freakish athlete, he excels against athletic teams, while he does struggle against big physical teams. So I guess I would argue that Dre may struggle to get hustle points at the next level.

 

[btbuff]

We have seen Faried struggle against more physical teams as well. Going against teams like the Lakers who are big and physical he lacks the boxing out skills and brute strength to get those rebounds.

 

[BuffsNYC]

I really wish we had comparison points with Rodman. He's the player I think about when I see 'Dre (although 'Dre has a much better jumper), but I have no idea how Dennis played in college (South East Oklahoma State). Dennis was the master of the boxout (he would spend practices watching teammates shoot to learn tendencies and how their shots deflect off the rim, enabling him to win the positioning battle before it even started), but by the time I got to watch him every night he was a 9 year NBA vet.

Most of my time watching Rodman happened when he was with Detroit. He didn't block out then, he was like a human pogo stick, though. It was like his feet barely touched the floor and he was headed up to the rim again. Roberson reminds me of that Rodman, but with much better offensive skills. In Detroit, Rodman couldn't make a basket outside of 5 ft.

 

[Scotch]

We have seen Faried struggle against more physical teams as well. Going against teams like the Lakers who are big and physical he lacks the boxing out skills and brute strength to get those rebounds.

^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^ Can't be understated, and Dre will struggle more than Faried because he's smaller. Needs to start boxing out and learn to get position down low.

Been wrong more times than I can remember, but imo I don't think Dre goes pro next season.

 

[Ruckus]

^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^ Can't be understated, and Dre will struggle more than Faried because he's smaller. Needs to start boxing out and learn to get position down low.

Been wrong more times than I can remember, but imo I don't think Dre goes pro next season.

This is how I feel. I don't think he will go pro, but I'm mentally preparing for it and planning on having enough confidence in the rest of our team so I won't feel we need him his senior season.

 

[MtnBuff]

^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^ Can't be understated, and Dre will struggle more than Faried because he's smaller. Needs to start boxing out and learn to get position down low.

Been wrong more times than I can remember, but imo I don't think Dre goes pro next season.

Big difference is that Faried is spending a lot of time at the 4 banging with big body guys. Dre' has played a lot of that style of ball for CU but primarily out of our lack of alternatives. In the NBA at his height and bulk he will not likely spend much time against 4s, instead he will be looked at as a defensive stopper at the 3 who can also rebound (again very similar to what Rodman did although Rodman was a bigger man.)

He is still very limited offensively, especially away from the basket but looked to my eye to be making strides there this past year. If he can get reasonably comfortable facing the basket from the wing this year offensively the NBA decision may be right in front of him. He has shown he can rebound and defend against larger players, if he can show this year that he can consistenty cover the wing and not be a liability on offense from the 3 the edge of the lottery may be in sight.

 

[btbuff]

Big difference is that Faried is spending a lot of time at the 4 banging with big body guys. Dre' has played a lot of that style of ball for CU but primarily out of our lack of alternatives. In the NBA at his height and bulk he will not likely spend much time against 4s, instead he will be looked at as a defensive stopper at the 3 who can also rebound (again very similar to what Rodman did although Rodman was a bigger man.)

He may have to guard 3's in the NBA, but rebounding happens at the same place. If he wants to get a rebound he is going to have to go against the 4 and 5's in the NBA.

 

[jgisland]

I know I have pointed out a lot of his flaws today, (you are harshest to those you are closest too:nod, but I really don't think that Dre has to progress much/if at all this coming year to see him turn pro.

Here is a list of questions about his game at the next level:

Will his game translate?
Will be able to rebound given his lack of bulk?
Can he find a way to score?
What position does he play?
Can he guard guys like Faried or will he get dominated under the hoop on D and pushed off the block on offense?
Does he handle the ball well enough to play a wing position?
Can he develop a decent jumper?
Will he be able to post up smaller players?
Can he take bigger guys to the hoop?

But you know what, none of these questions matter. As Goose mentioned he is projected as a #15 pick right now, GM's love potential, athleticism, wing-span, vertical and all of those buzz words Bilas loves to use on draft night. Dre is full of them. He HAS to go pro if he is projected at 15, staying the extra year for the value of a college degree or staying to develop his game IMO mean nothing when you get the guaranteed $ he is looking at if he is drafted 15. And does his draft stock really rise that much higher than 15 if he were to stay?

 

[RumblinBuff]

And does his draft stock really rise that much higher than 15 if he were to stay?

In fact it probably goes down dramatically. Staying all 4 years has developed into a stigma.

 

[torero]

I know I have pointed out a lot of his flaws today, (you are harshest to those you are closest too:nod, but I really don't think that Dre has to progress much/if at all this coming year to see him turn pro.

Here is a list of questions about his game at the next level:

Will his game translate?
Will be able to rebound given his lack of bulk?
Can he find a way to score?
What position does he play?
Can he guard guys like Faried or will he get dominated under the hoop on D and pushed off the block on offense?
Does he handle the ball well enough to play a wing position?
Can he develop a decent jumper?
Will he be able to post up smaller players?
Can he take bigger guys to the hoop?

But you know what, none of these questions matter. As Goose mentioned he is projected as a #15 pick right now, GM's love potential, athleticism, wing-span, vertical and all of those buzz words Bilas loves to use on draft night. Dre is full of them. He HAS to go pro if he is projected at 15, staying the extra year for the value of a college degree or staying to develop his game IMO mean nothing when you get the guaranteed $ he is looking at if he is drafted 15. And does his draft stock really rise that much higher than 15 if he were to stay?

Bolded are this biggest questions to me. I think he has to play the 4 at the next level, I just don't think his skill set really transitions to playing the 3. Just to use the Nuggets as an example, he is a hell of a lot closer to Farried than Gallo.

 

[Ruckus]

I don't see him having huge enough improvements next year for his draft stock to rise higher than 15. It is likely other lottery players will emerge throughout the season and he will drop to 20-25 range. Even there, it would be very smart to leave early.