2013 Recruiting Analysis: Winning Recruiting Battles

[J.R. Ewing]

I posted an earlier version of this in August. We've all seen Rivals class breakdown based on class numbers and stars. Another way to look at is by the number of other BCS offers the class has and the number of commits with no other BCS offers. This isn't a perfect method because these are reported by the kids, but it's a start. All offer data from Rivals.

Here's how the 2013 PAC12 class shook out:

	Commits	BCS Offers	BCS/Commit	No BCS Offers
USC	12	206	17.2	0
UCLA	23	270	11.7	1
Oregon	19	155	8.2	3
Stanford	12	93	7.8	0
Washington	23	173	7.5	2
Arizona St	24	124	5.2	4
Oregon St	24	80	3.3	9
California	25	70	2.8	8
Utah	23	47	2.0	6
Arizona	24	48	2.0	10
Wasington St	22	31	1.4	12
Colorado	19	17	0.9	8

Here are the programs CU beat out: Arizona, Boston College, Duke, Iowa St (5), Minnesota (2), Utah (4), Washington St (3)

So clearly we finished dead last. Utah, Arizona, and Wazzu won more total battles, but their class were heavily influenced be a commit or two with a large number of offers. Outside those few guys, their classes look a lot like CU's class: a bunch of 2* and low 3* guys with 0-2 offers a piece.

For comparison's sake, here are the past 4 CU classes:

	Commits	BCS Offers	BCS/Commit	No BCS Offers
2012 BUFFS	27	109	4.0	6
2011 BUFFS	23	44	1.9	8
2010 BUFFS	24	23	1.0	14
2009 BUFFS	20	42	2.1	7

No surprise that the 2012 class was middle of the PAC(k) in terms of battles won. The unfortunate thing, is that the 2013 class looks at least as bad, if not worse, than the rough recruiting classes from 2009-2011.

 

[buff190]

Rep, Nice work.

I should neg rep you though for my now deep depression.

I do think that this coaching staff will get more out of what we have than the last two coaches did.

 

[boydbuff]

Yes excellent analysis even though it is not pretty-not just this year but prior years too. I do believe HCMM will get more out of his players than any of our past coaches since maybe Barnett?

However, for us to be regularly competitive we need to attract higher quality players. period.

 

[BuffClass90]

Here's hoping that Coach Mac, who took much worse recruiting classes at SJSU to an 11 win season, can work the same magic in Boulder. For me, that's about all the hope I can find right now.

 

[MtnBuff]

Interesting to look at the schools we beat out and that two of our recruits with BCS offers listed either a Minnesota or Iowa State offer.

All in all, not a pretty picture regarding the respect that our recruits got from other schools.

 

[buffs04]

Great work. I think this sums it up pretty nicely. We are in very bad shape, but we should still be beating the Sacramento States and CSUs of the world.

 

[BuffClass90]

Not to underestimate the importance of recruiting, but I'm guessing schools who recruit about as well as us, like Cincinnati, would beat Sac State, CSU and would even beat at least one of the mid-tier PAC12 teams. Difference? Cincinnati is well coached, unlike CU in the Hawk-bree eras. Coaching will have to get us out of this hole.

 

[o_robbie]

Not to underestimate the importance of recruiting, but I'm guessing schools who recruit about as well as us, like Cincinnati, would beat Sac State, CSU and would even beat at least one of the mid-tier PAC12 teams. Difference? Cincinnati is well coached, unlike CU in the Hawk-bree eras. Coaching will have to get us out of this hole.

We need some good coaching to get us to 4 or 5 wins each year by beating all the teams we should beat. Then we need a little luck developing all of these athletes we took this cycle. Mix in 1 breakthrough QB and we are on our way.

 

[MtnBuff]

We need some good coaching to get us to 4 or 5 wins each year by beating all the teams we should beat. Then we need a little luck developing all of these athletes we took this cycle. Mix in 1 breakthrough QB and we are on our way.

If we get the kind of coaching that you are talking about and beat the teams we should we will also have good enough coaching to beat a team or two we shouldn't. That gets you you 4-5 wins a year and maybe even to 6. Almost as important is to eliminate the embarassing losses. We don't have the talent to beat an Oregon or USC on their worst day or our best but we have to make sure we aren't letting them put 60 and 70 up on us and losing by 40 or 50. We also can't let mid-level teams beat us by 30. We have to look like a major college football team, not a worn out speed bump.

If we can get to the level where we are winning 5-6 games then as a PAC school with all the other things CU has going for it we should be able to get the attention of some better quality recruits. Talent goes up and you start to win some more which continues the cycle.

The Hawkins/Embree disasters took us clean of the radar of the kind of recruits we need to move up. The kids don't have long memories, our glory years might as well be the Knute Rockne era. The good thing is that because of these short memories if we start to win the games we should M2 will be able to sell them on the idea that CU is on the way up and they can be part of it.

 

[Quattro]

As long as Kiffin is at USC they will be beatable. I'm not saying we're going to beat them this year but there's a lot of wasted talent in LA right now and it's not coming from Westwood.