What's new
AllBuffs | Unofficial fan site for the University of Colorado at Boulder Athletics programs

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • Prime Time. Prime Time. Its a new era for Colorado football. Consider signing up for a club membership! For $20/year, you can get access to all the special features at Allbuffs, including club member only forums, dark mode, avatars and best of all no ads ! But seriously, please sign up so that we can pay the bills. No one earns money here, and we can use your $20 to keep this hellhole running. You can sign up for a club membership by navigating to your account in the upper right and clicking on "Account Upgrades". Make it happen!

Poor coaching?

I think this line says it all:

College football is a dreadfully complicated endeavor to model statistically

basically his formula is talent + coaching + a bunch of other factors = team quality.

I guess I don't see factors like kids leaving a program or injuries that would cause the average talent to drop. Plus that bunch of other factors is huge, like how easy is the team's schedule? Are all their tough games played at home?
 
One thing he did not elaborate on was the definition of team quality - here it is. One observation is the Team quality number is greatly impacted by the quality of QB play - Auburn was highly efficient with Cam Newton and highly inefficient without him.

F-Plus (F/+) Football Outsiders official college football ratings, combining play-by-play and drive-based efficiency systems developed independently by Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau. F/+ ratings represent the best measure of overall college team performance we've measured in terms of predictive quality and retrodictive analysis. ( From Football Outsiders).


 
I couldn't really read this whole thing, but I did peruse the chart--where you will find Hawkins and Embree well near the bottom.

http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2013/8/19/4635732/college-football-apparent-talent-coaching-effects
Sounds like a similar debate we had the past few months about the relative importance of aggregate team recruiting rankings and coaching quality in predicting winning %.

Some of you who are familiar with regression analysis will recognize that despite his model not having every possible variable, coaching quality and average recruiting quality are strong predictors of success.
 
Sounds like a similar debate we had the past few months about the relative importance of aggregate team recruiting rankings and coaching quality in predicting winning %.

Some of you who are familiar with regression analysis will recognize that despite his model not having every possible variable, coaching quality and average recruiting quality are strong predictors of success.

Like the comments for the teams at the bottom...intramurals? Haha...

And what is the r-squared on this analysis, bitch?
 
One thing he did not elaborate on was the definition of team quality - here it is. One observation is the Team quality number is greatly impacted by the quality of QB play - Auburn was highly efficient with Cam Newton and highly inefficient without him.

F-Plus (F/+) Football Outsiders official college football ratings, combining play-by-play and drive-based efficiency systems developed independently by Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau. F/+ ratings represent the best measure of overall college team performance we've measured in terms of predictive quality and retrodictive analysis. ( From Football Outsiders).



Makes sense. Great QB play impacts a team like no other position or position group.
 
Sounds like a similar debate we had the past few months about the relative importance of aggregate team recruiting rankings and coaching quality in predicting winning %.

Some of you who are familiar with regression analysis will recognize that despite his model not having every possible variable, coaching quality and average recruiting quality are strong predictors of success.

Predictors perhaps. Certainly follows success. Hard to differentiate that one.
 
Back
Top