There are a few things that I think most on the board can agree on:
1) Had spencer not gotten injured and had the season he was on his way to having, he was gone. He said so during his summer games with adidas, and we all knew it after the end of last season
2) We all want spencer to do what is best for spencer
3) If he's still a first round pick at the end of the year, then he should go.
Now, as much as all those situations are true, they are no longer the facts at hand. Unfortunately for spencer and the rest of buff nation, he
did get hurt, and only got to play ball for about a half season. As it stands right now, he's considered the "next five in" (Position 31-35) on
Chad Fords (ESPN) big board, is not in the top 60 on
nbadraft.net (wtf), and is in position 34 (2nd round) on
Draft Express. Taking what spencer said last summer as total truth (
adidas interview) that he'd come back to school if not in the top 15, then he may be returning.
As we all know, they need to declare for the draft by april 27 (or so), which will be 3 months and 1 week after surgery for spencer. He has a personal goal to be running by then and probably doing some light workouts, so lets assume he does that. That will be a solid recovery up to that point, but teams are committing almost 3 million to the last pick in the first round (880, 920, 960), and while spencer is very talented, I'm not quite sure he's at a level where people will pick him up and pick up his rehab tab until the season starts (and potentially beyond).
One other major problem with all assumptions is that we are not operating in a draft vacuum. March is just 2 months away, and many players play their way into (or out of) the first round based on performances in the conference tournaments and the big dance. That was the case last year with mitch mcgrady (it's worth noting that right now he's slated early second round by draft express, and was thought to be a mid first rounder april 2013), and will certainly be the case with someone (or many someones) this year. Right now, kyle anderson (UCLA) could be that guy. They have him early second round right now, but if UCLA performs well down the stretch and he plays well, he could play himself into the first round (this is unlikely - steve alford doesnt remember what the second weekend feels like). The point here is that players will be moving up or down until the nets are cut down in dallas, and spencer does not even have the opportunity to move up or down - he situation is mostly stagnant (though he will get credit for how his rehab is progressing), and his situation depends on what the other players do or do not do down the stretch when it really matters.
Like many on the board have pointed out, there's a risk to returning to CU as well. The risk isnt that he'll get worse and his stock will go down (I personally think he's too consistent for that), but it's the same risk that he started this season with - an injury. Also, for what its worth, the 2015 draft does not look near as loaded as the 2014 one is shaping up to be.
A lot of people have been saying spencer is gone after this year, and until the washington game I was one of them. Right now though, I'm just not sure if I can see it happening. There are a lot of unknowns that will slowly become knowns as we get closer to april that will make the decision more cut and dry for spencer, but for now I'm happy waiting around for more information.
