We'll look at "Bubble Busters" in 2 ways.
First the classic way (as SI's Michael Beller well-described it): second-tier contenders in smaller conferences that fit the following three criteria: good enough to win their conference tournament, lacking the resume to secure an at-large bid, and playing in a conference with a favorite that is likely to make the field of 68 even if it falls in its league's postseason tournament.
The second way we'll consider it: 1-bid leagues with a leader that's got a great chance to make the Dance not matter what it does in the conference tourney -but- no one else in that conference has a chance to make the Dance without winning the conference tourney. So in this case, we're not talking about teams that we think could be a Bubble Buster so much as "the field" in a conference could be a Bubble Buster.
As of February 14th, here are some of the prime candidates:
1. Missouri Valley Conference. Wichita State is a stone cold lock to make the dance with an RPI of 6. Behind them is Indiana State (RPI 53), which is close but probably on the wrong side of the bubble - a classic Bubble Buster team to look out for in the MVC tourney. Then there's the MVC field - Missouri State is the only other team that even cracks the RPI 100 (at 99). Anyone from the field turning the MVC into a 2-bid league by winning the conference tourney would be a Bubble Buster.
2. West Coast Conference. Gonzaga is in the Dance with its #21 RPI rank. #47 BYU and #51 St. Mary's lurk as classic Bubble Busters. BYU played some tough non-conference teams like UT, giving them a SOS of 31. That makes them a much stronger bubble team than St. Mary's, which didn't schedule a difficult non-con. Neither likely has the resume to make the Dance as an at-large. In terms of the WCC field, there's San Francisco at RPI 93 and Pacific at RPI 100. There are some tricky outs and that tourney could really screw up the Bubble.
3. Mid-American Conference. Toledo leads the MAC with an RPI of 24. Safely in the Dance and were one of the last unbeatens until traveling to Kansas. They've dropped a couple MAC road games so not a complete lock to win the conference tourney. No one in the MAC has the resume to be a classic Bubble Buster, but the field has a number of teams that could **** things up: #70 Ohio, #79 E Michigan & #92 Akron lead the charge.
4. Conference USA. Southern Miss looked really good before losing at UAB this week, but they're still at RPI 40 and probably won't lose much the rest of the way in a weak C-USA. Some dangerous teams with good records against weak competition could steal the Dance ticket in the conference tourney while USM still sneaks in: #73 LA Tech, #81 Mid TN State, #104 UTEP, #114 Charlotte.
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5. Summit. Not currently above the Bubble Buster conference line, but they're close. North Dakota State is RPI 48 and the next best RPI in the Summit belongs to #132 IPFW. The risk here would be NDSU running the table and then losing in the conference championship game. Stranger things have happened.
6. Ivy. Harvard is 17-4 and sits at #52 RPI. Likely not good enough for an at-large bid. And the Ivy doesn't have a conference tourney. Right now they're tied in the Ivy standings with #141 Yale... and the Elis own the tiebreaker. Would a 24-5 Harvard that dropped a 2nd game to Yale gain an at-large bid? Possibly.
First the classic way (as SI's Michael Beller well-described it): second-tier contenders in smaller conferences that fit the following three criteria: good enough to win their conference tournament, lacking the resume to secure an at-large bid, and playing in a conference with a favorite that is likely to make the field of 68 even if it falls in its league's postseason tournament.
The second way we'll consider it: 1-bid leagues with a leader that's got a great chance to make the Dance not matter what it does in the conference tourney -but- no one else in that conference has a chance to make the Dance without winning the conference tourney. So in this case, we're not talking about teams that we think could be a Bubble Buster so much as "the field" in a conference could be a Bubble Buster.
As of February 14th, here are some of the prime candidates:
1. Missouri Valley Conference. Wichita State is a stone cold lock to make the dance with an RPI of 6. Behind them is Indiana State (RPI 53), which is close but probably on the wrong side of the bubble - a classic Bubble Buster team to look out for in the MVC tourney. Then there's the MVC field - Missouri State is the only other team that even cracks the RPI 100 (at 99). Anyone from the field turning the MVC into a 2-bid league by winning the conference tourney would be a Bubble Buster.
2. West Coast Conference. Gonzaga is in the Dance with its #21 RPI rank. #47 BYU and #51 St. Mary's lurk as classic Bubble Busters. BYU played some tough non-conference teams like UT, giving them a SOS of 31. That makes them a much stronger bubble team than St. Mary's, which didn't schedule a difficult non-con. Neither likely has the resume to make the Dance as an at-large. In terms of the WCC field, there's San Francisco at RPI 93 and Pacific at RPI 100. There are some tricky outs and that tourney could really screw up the Bubble.
3. Mid-American Conference. Toledo leads the MAC with an RPI of 24. Safely in the Dance and were one of the last unbeatens until traveling to Kansas. They've dropped a couple MAC road games so not a complete lock to win the conference tourney. No one in the MAC has the resume to be a classic Bubble Buster, but the field has a number of teams that could **** things up: #70 Ohio, #79 E Michigan & #92 Akron lead the charge.
4. Conference USA. Southern Miss looked really good before losing at UAB this week, but they're still at RPI 40 and probably won't lose much the rest of the way in a weak C-USA. Some dangerous teams with good records against weak competition could steal the Dance ticket in the conference tourney while USM still sneaks in: #73 LA Tech, #81 Mid TN State, #104 UTEP, #114 Charlotte.
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5. Summit. Not currently above the Bubble Buster conference line, but they're close. North Dakota State is RPI 48 and the next best RPI in the Summit belongs to #132 IPFW. The risk here would be NDSU running the table and then losing in the conference championship game. Stranger things have happened.
6. Ivy. Harvard is 17-4 and sits at #52 RPI. Likely not good enough for an at-large bid. And the Ivy doesn't have a conference tourney. Right now they're tied in the Ivy standings with #141 Yale... and the Elis own the tiebreaker. Would a 24-5 Harvard that dropped a 2nd game to Yale gain an at-large bid? Possibly.
