You talk about immediate playing time, that if they commit their contribution can stem the tide of losse and or that they will see the field quickly. It's called spin, sales, whatever you want to call it.
Most of these kids want to get to the NFL and, in the case of the 4*+, they are going to go with the team that is mostly likely to get them there. They lesser players also reach for these dreams but I also believe they want the free education.
I would argue that the good players make it to the NFL via the draft regardless of where they play, so long as they get the opportunity to play.
So if a recruit's primary objective is to get to the NFL, I honestly believe he is better off going to a college where he will be guaranteed the opportunity to display his abilities. With that said, those are not the type of kids we want to recruit. We want kids that WANT to go to college, compete and win. It's fine and dandy to be able to sell playing time, but hopefully that will not be the case in a couple of years.
Here's a list of highly drafted RBs in recent years that attended "lesser" programs:
LaDanian Tomlinson - TCU
DeAngelo Williams - Memphis
Marshawn Lynch - Cal
Chris Henry - Arizona
Brian Leonard - Rutgers
Garrett Wolfe - Northern Illinois
Michael Bush - Louisville
Lawrence Maroney - Minnesota
Jerious Norwood - Mississippi State
J.J. Arrington - Cal
Micheal Shelton - Louisville
Vernand Morency - OSU
Ryan Moats - Louisiana Tech
Marion Barber - Minnesota
Brandon Jacobs - Southern Illinois
Stephen Jackson - Oregon St
Tatum Bell - OSU
Mewelde Moore - Tulane
Then you have players like Willie Parker and Selvin Young that can clearly play in the NFL but they didn't get drafted because they were buried on their college team's depth chart.
I don't have any data to support this, but I would be willing to bet that a greater ratio of 4-5 star recruits that attend top 10 programs do not do as well in the NFL draft or go undrafted.
Again, I wouldn't make this argument if I'm a recruiter for Colorado. I'm just saying that I think your premise that a top-tier program provides better professional opportunities for their athletes is flawed. The best of all worlds is an institution where you will have the opportunity to play, be able to compete with the best teams in the country, and be surrounded by a good coaching staff that will prepare you to play at the next level.