So what are our hopes for Little Hawk? Well, statistically, he has a great chance of being.... AVERAGE.
http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/2008/6/17/553536/freshman-quarterback-revie
Quick results: QB's revert to the mean in their second seasons. Only a very few QB's showed continued improvement season to season, and those are usually ballyhooed recruits that go into the NFL.
Caveat: SMQ made NO attempt to bring the offensive line play, Wide receiver play, etc. into the equation. His theory was that a large enough sample size would make all things equal. I don't know if he reached a large enough sample, but it sure seemed to be enough to get a rough conclusion.
His predictions based on the results:
I looked up Cody's passer rating for last season. The "average" passer rating was about 131. Cody's is 119. I happen to think it should have been a lot higher due to an abnormally high number of dropped TD's and that Cody showed improvement through most of the season. However, the statistics show that the MOST we can hope out of Cody is something in the 135 range on a consistent basis. It is more likely it will be lower. However, Joel Klatt's best season was his first, and during that season he had a 140 rating (for comparison, his 2nd season Klatt had a 115 rating!)...
I think we can all agree it would be great if Cody could hold onto something like the form Klatt showed in his first season. So it's not all doom and gloom, but the Ballenger lovers could have a point of contention if Cody does not improve.
RankPlayerPosClGmPattPcompComppctIntIntpctPydsYdspattTDsTDpctRating
80Cody Hawkins, ColoradoQBFR13463263 56.8017 3.673015 6.5122 4.75 119.8
29Joel Klatt, ColoradoQBSO11358233 65.0810 2.792614 7.3021 5.87 140.2
http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/2008/6/17/553536/freshman-quarterback-revie
Quick results: QB's revert to the mean in their second seasons. Only a very few QB's showed continued improvement season to season, and those are usually ballyhooed recruits that go into the NFL.
Caveat: SMQ made NO attempt to bring the offensive line play, Wide receiver play, etc. into the equation. His theory was that a large enough sample size would make all things equal. I don't know if he reached a large enough sample, but it sure seemed to be enough to get a rough conclusion.
His predictions based on the results:
What that means for current sophomores going forward: I'd expect Sam Bradford's sky-high freshman numbers to come plummeting to earth, with an efficiency in the 135-145 range; ditto Case Keenum at Houston, who opened up with a rating last year over 145. Cody Hawkins, T.J. Yates and Adam Weber are all still at least nominally competing for their positions, which says something in and of itself. They might improve slightly, but by and large will probably look the same inconsistent/consistently mediocre quarterbacks they were as freshman.
I looked up Cody's passer rating for last season. The "average" passer rating was about 131. Cody's is 119. I happen to think it should have been a lot higher due to an abnormally high number of dropped TD's and that Cody showed improvement through most of the season. However, the statistics show that the MOST we can hope out of Cody is something in the 135 range on a consistent basis. It is more likely it will be lower. However, Joel Klatt's best season was his first, and during that season he had a 140 rating (for comparison, his 2nd season Klatt had a 115 rating!)...
I think we can all agree it would be great if Cody could hold onto something like the form Klatt showed in his first season. So it's not all doom and gloom, but the Ballenger lovers could have a point of contention if Cody does not improve.
RankPlayerPosClGmPattPcompComppctIntIntpctPydsYdspattTDsTDpctRating
80Cody Hawkins, ColoradoQBFR13463263 56.8017 3.673015 6.5122 4.75 119.8
29Joel Klatt, ColoradoQBSO11358233 65.0810 2.792614 7.3021 5.87 140.2