MontanaBuff
Well-Known Member
For those of you who are regulars at CU at the Game, this will be redundant, but I received a couple of emails asking me to put this up on AllBuffs, so there could be wider discussion on the topic.
So, here goes ...
Okay, let's dare to dream ...
Flashback to two months ago - two weeks before the opener against Colorado State. The Buffs were getting ready for the "ten wins, no excuses" 2009 season. Cautious optimism reigned. Buff fans took a look at the conference schedule, and noted that the Big 12 North favorites all had to come to Boulder. All of the Big 12 North teams had flaws.
Maybe, just maybe, the losing would come to an end in 2009.
Then, the wheels fell off, and the Buffs found themselves in the "Bottom Ten" after losses to CSU and Toledo.
At the time, even the most gung-ho Buff fan would have probably conceded that the Buffs would not carry the day in Austin. If you had offered most Colorado fans the identical score of the 2008 Texas game, 38-14, they most likely would have taken it.
If you had offered those same fans a 38-14 loss to Texas, but a win over Kansas, they would have jumped at the chance.
Well, that's where we're at.
It's hard to erase the memories of the CSU disappointment and the Toledo debacle. However, since week two, the Buffs have actually held pretty true to predicted form. An easy win over Wyoming, followed by a "close, but no cigar" effort against West Virginia, a loss at Texas, and a home win against Kansas. In truth, the most surprising game of the last four is the win over Kansas. With Tyler Hansen now installed at quarterback, it is not an irrational idea that the Buffs can play out the remainder of the 2009 season the way Buff fans expected them to two months ago.
So, for the sake of argument, let's make the case for "Colorado Buffaloes: 2009 Big 12 North Champions":
If the Buffs to win the North, it is only because the other candidates are equally flawed, and/or have a tougher remaining schedule.
Let's start with Kansas. The Jayhawks, with a loss to Colorado already on the books, still has three games against the Big 12 South. This year's opponents? #25 Oklahoma at home; #21 Texas Tech and #3 Texas on the road. Yikes. Plus, there are also games against Nebraska and Missouri. The only "easy" game left on the schedule? On the road, against in-state rival - and current Big 12 North leader - Kansas State. A 5-3 conference record would be a significant achievement.
Okay, what about Nebraska, the other favorite to win the North? The Cornhuskers are, like Kansas and Colorado, 1-1 in Big 12 play. Nebraska will probably take over the Big 12 North lead over the next two weeks, with games against Iowa State and Baylor. Then, things get tougher, as the Cornhuskers face Oklahoma, Kansas on the road, Kansas State, and at Colorado. Not bad, but after the 31-10 home loss to Texas Tech, and the possible change at quarterback, questions are being raised ...
Then there is Missouri. The two time defending Big 12 North champions are in an 0-2 hole to start Big 12 play, losing to Nebraska and Oklahoma State. This weekend, Missouri takes on #2 Texas in a "make or break" game for the Tigers. Want to place $$ on Missouri taking out the Longhorns? If they do, they are back in the race, otherwise ...
For argument's sake, as the North is truly a free-for-all, we should also include Iowa State. The Cyclones are 1-2 in Big 12 play, and are on the road in Lincoln this weekend. There are also games against Oklahoma State and at Missouri. For Iowa State to contend, they would have to take two out of three of those games. Iowa State may get two more wins this season, and qualify for a bowl. That in and of itself would be a major accomplishment, but the North title is probably out of reach in 2009.
Finally, there is division-leading Kansas State. The Wildcats are 2-1 in Big 12 play, having knocked off Iowa State and Texas A&M; losing to Texas Tech. To say it's hard to get a read on KSU is an understatement. Kansas State followed up a 66-14 loss to Texas Tech with a 62-14 win over Texas A&M. Folks, that's a 52-point loss followed by a 48-point win - a 100-point turnaround in one week. The Wildcats do have road games against Oklahoma and Nebraska to prove the turnaround is legitimate, but they do get the other contenders at home ...
... including this weekend.
Let's take a walk through a hypothetical second half of the 2009 season for the Buffs.
It either starts, or comes to a quick end, this weekend. A win over the Wildcats gives the Buffs a Sunflower State sweep, and a leg up on the Big 12 North race. After Kansas State, Colorado returns home to face a Missouri team which, barring an upset win over Texas, will be on a three-game losing streak, and, more importantly, 0-3 in Big 12 play. The Buffs were routed in Columbia last season. If Kansas State can have a 100-point turnaround in one week, why can't the Buffs do the same in a year?
After Missouri, the Buffs face Texas A&M and Iowa State. If Colorado is the team that they were projected to be two months ago, these are the two most winnable games on the schedule. Wins over the Aggies and Cyclones would give the Buffs a 5-1 Big 12 record. A likely loss to Oklahoma State (on the road, five days after the Iowa State game) could very well set up a de facto Big 12 North championship game against Nebraska, in Boulder, Thanksgiving weekend.
Unlikely? Yes. Improbable? You bet.
For the record, I'm still stuck on the memory of my long drive from Toledo to Columbus the morning after the Rocket assault. I can't get the memory of that complete meltdown out of my head. Nor can I ignore the fact that it has now been almost exactly two ... full ... seasons since the Buffs won a game on the road.
A win on Saturday, and all of the above comes into play. Colorado will be a team to reckon with in the Big 12 North race.
A loss on Saturday, and we go back to the Dan Hawkins' countdown ...
So, here goes ...
Okay, let's dare to dream ...
Flashback to two months ago - two weeks before the opener against Colorado State. The Buffs were getting ready for the "ten wins, no excuses" 2009 season. Cautious optimism reigned. Buff fans took a look at the conference schedule, and noted that the Big 12 North favorites all had to come to Boulder. All of the Big 12 North teams had flaws.
Maybe, just maybe, the losing would come to an end in 2009.
Then, the wheels fell off, and the Buffs found themselves in the "Bottom Ten" after losses to CSU and Toledo.
At the time, even the most gung-ho Buff fan would have probably conceded that the Buffs would not carry the day in Austin. If you had offered most Colorado fans the identical score of the 2008 Texas game, 38-14, they most likely would have taken it.
If you had offered those same fans a 38-14 loss to Texas, but a win over Kansas, they would have jumped at the chance.
Well, that's where we're at.
It's hard to erase the memories of the CSU disappointment and the Toledo debacle. However, since week two, the Buffs have actually held pretty true to predicted form. An easy win over Wyoming, followed by a "close, but no cigar" effort against West Virginia, a loss at Texas, and a home win against Kansas. In truth, the most surprising game of the last four is the win over Kansas. With Tyler Hansen now installed at quarterback, it is not an irrational idea that the Buffs can play out the remainder of the 2009 season the way Buff fans expected them to two months ago.
So, for the sake of argument, let's make the case for "Colorado Buffaloes: 2009 Big 12 North Champions":
If the Buffs to win the North, it is only because the other candidates are equally flawed, and/or have a tougher remaining schedule.
Let's start with Kansas. The Jayhawks, with a loss to Colorado already on the books, still has three games against the Big 12 South. This year's opponents? #25 Oklahoma at home; #21 Texas Tech and #3 Texas on the road. Yikes. Plus, there are also games against Nebraska and Missouri. The only "easy" game left on the schedule? On the road, against in-state rival - and current Big 12 North leader - Kansas State. A 5-3 conference record would be a significant achievement.
Okay, what about Nebraska, the other favorite to win the North? The Cornhuskers are, like Kansas and Colorado, 1-1 in Big 12 play. Nebraska will probably take over the Big 12 North lead over the next two weeks, with games against Iowa State and Baylor. Then, things get tougher, as the Cornhuskers face Oklahoma, Kansas on the road, Kansas State, and at Colorado. Not bad, but after the 31-10 home loss to Texas Tech, and the possible change at quarterback, questions are being raised ...
Then there is Missouri. The two time defending Big 12 North champions are in an 0-2 hole to start Big 12 play, losing to Nebraska and Oklahoma State. This weekend, Missouri takes on #2 Texas in a "make or break" game for the Tigers. Want to place $$ on Missouri taking out the Longhorns? If they do, they are back in the race, otherwise ...
For argument's sake, as the North is truly a free-for-all, we should also include Iowa State. The Cyclones are 1-2 in Big 12 play, and are on the road in Lincoln this weekend. There are also games against Oklahoma State and at Missouri. For Iowa State to contend, they would have to take two out of three of those games. Iowa State may get two more wins this season, and qualify for a bowl. That in and of itself would be a major accomplishment, but the North title is probably out of reach in 2009.
Finally, there is division-leading Kansas State. The Wildcats are 2-1 in Big 12 play, having knocked off Iowa State and Texas A&M; losing to Texas Tech. To say it's hard to get a read on KSU is an understatement. Kansas State followed up a 66-14 loss to Texas Tech with a 62-14 win over Texas A&M. Folks, that's a 52-point loss followed by a 48-point win - a 100-point turnaround in one week. The Wildcats do have road games against Oklahoma and Nebraska to prove the turnaround is legitimate, but they do get the other contenders at home ...
... including this weekend.
Let's take a walk through a hypothetical second half of the 2009 season for the Buffs.
It either starts, or comes to a quick end, this weekend. A win over the Wildcats gives the Buffs a Sunflower State sweep, and a leg up on the Big 12 North race. After Kansas State, Colorado returns home to face a Missouri team which, barring an upset win over Texas, will be on a three-game losing streak, and, more importantly, 0-3 in Big 12 play. The Buffs were routed in Columbia last season. If Kansas State can have a 100-point turnaround in one week, why can't the Buffs do the same in a year?
After Missouri, the Buffs face Texas A&M and Iowa State. If Colorado is the team that they were projected to be two months ago, these are the two most winnable games on the schedule. Wins over the Aggies and Cyclones would give the Buffs a 5-1 Big 12 record. A likely loss to Oklahoma State (on the road, five days after the Iowa State game) could very well set up a de facto Big 12 North championship game against Nebraska, in Boulder, Thanksgiving weekend.
Unlikely? Yes. Improbable? You bet.
For the record, I'm still stuck on the memory of my long drive from Toledo to Columbus the morning after the Rocket assault. I can't get the memory of that complete meltdown out of my head. Nor can I ignore the fact that it has now been almost exactly two ... full ... seasons since the Buffs won a game on the road.
A win on Saturday, and all of the above comes into play. Colorado will be a team to reckon with in the Big 12 North race.
A loss on Saturday, and we go back to the Dan Hawkins' countdown ...