What really matters in recruiting?

[Buffnik]

The Stetson School of Business at Mercer University hosts a web site for a "college football recruiting model" developed by 3 of their economists. Last year, it predicted with 71% accuracy the school at which each of the Top 250 Rivals prospects. http://ssbea.mercer.edu/recruiting.htm

What does the data show?

We were a bit surprised by the results. There were a number of factors that we thought would significantly impact the decision of the high school athlete that didn’t. For example, factors like the school’s graduation rate, the number of Bowl Championship Series (BCS) bowl appearances, the current roster depth at the recruited player’s position, the number of players from a specific college drafted by the NFL, and even the number of national championships won by a particular program don’t systematically influence the decisions of high school athletes. Surprised? So were we. What, then, does matter? As it turns out the following factors DO significantly impact the decision of high school athletes:

* Whether the athlete made an “official visit” to a specific college
* Whether the school is in a BCS conference
* The distance from the high school athlete’s hometown to a specific school
* Whether the recruit is in the same state as a specific school
* The final AP Ranking of a specific school in the previous year of competition
* The number of conference titles a school has recorded in recent years
* Whether the school is currently under a “bowl ban” for violating NCAA rules
* The current number of scholarship reductions a school faces for violating NCAA rules
* The size of the team’s stadium (measured in terms of seating capacity)
* Whether the school has an on-campus stadium
* The current age of the team’s stadium

So, in a nutshell, high school athletes prefer winning programs that are
close to home, are in possession of good physical facilities, and are in good
graces with the NCAA.

 

[AlferdJasper]

But then you get quotes like top LB Nigel Terrell who says none of the above.

So what will ultimately help Terrell choose a program for good? He says he's looking for the that familiar feeling he felt when he first committed to Florida State.
\"How they connect and the type of friendships that they have,\" he said. \"I want to feel comfortable. I want to feel like I belong there, you know?\"

 

[Buffnik]

Yep. The model fits for like 7/10 guys. And it did accurately predict that we'd get Kasa and Harris last year.

Really, CU just needs to start winning again. We run a clean program, play in a BCS conference, have a great on-campus stadium with views of the front range, and we've won a Big 12 Championship this decade. We're always going to have to rely on outliers, though, because we don't usually have the in-state/close-to-home thing working for us and our facilities will never be a selling point (just have to not be a negative).

 

[buffwings]

whew, so we can look forward to getting those 3 other kids out of 10.

wait, we're a BCS school and what Buffnik said.

 

[somebody]

... the following factors DO significantly impact the decision of high school athletes:

* Whether the athlete made an “official visit” to a specific college
* Whether the school is in a BCS conference
* The distance from the high school athlete’s hometown to a specific school
* Whether the recruit is in the same state as a specific school
* The final AP Ranking of a specific school in the previous year of competition
* The number of conference titles a school has recorded in recent years
* Whether the school is currently under a “bowl ban” for violating NCAA rules
* The current number of scholarship reductions a school faces for violating NCAA rules
* The size of the team’s stadium (measured in terms of seating capacity)
* Whether the school has an on-campus stadium
* The current age of the team’s stadium

So, in a nutshell, high school athletes prefer winning programs that are
close to home, are in possession of good physical facilities, and are in good
graces with the NCAA.

We really need to get those official visits, because we are hurting in several areas, at least for the well above average players.