So, when does basketball start?

[dio]

Football doesn't look so hot.

However, I had the joy of watching the CU game with Nik and Goose, both bball experts. They had some really positive things to say about the program, and there are some high expectations being set.

I heard talk of NIT next year, and possibly even NCAA - despite losing our 4 leading scorers. How can that be guys? Who is going to pickup the slack?

 

[Mick Ronson]

90% sure this team does not make the NCAA. NIT is a reasonable goal. we need people who can put the ball in the basket....lost a lot that. not sure we have it.

let's not replicate unreal expectations for Boyle the way we've done with Embree. losing sucks and we've done a lot of it. remember, we did get hosed, but we were an NIT team last year with a lottery pick and 3 time most underrated player in the conference.

 

[slider]

I was telling myself last night, "at least we have basketball to look forward to." Unusual as a CU fan to say that

 

[Buffnik]

Specifically, we were talking about the CU program being "NCAA Tournament Caliber" every season including the upcoming one. We're young. We're very unproven as a group. But we are talented and a lot of guys got a taste of it last year. Our expectation of this team must be post-season or we are selling them short. If things break right, that could mean the NCAAs even though that's the sunshine scenario. The Puerto Rico Tipoff should be interesting. We got a ****** draw by opening with Wichita State, who I consider the favorite to win the thing. If we show well there, we should be positioned to rack up a very good non-conference record and be gelling as we hit conference play.

The things I'm looking for with our 2011-12 squad are:

1. Being able to approach the offensive efficiency we had in 2010-11.
2. Major improvement in defensive efficiency (we let teams shoot too high a percentage last season).
3. Major improvement in rebounding efficiency (especially on the defensive glass).

A lot of other metrics are nice and they give you a good idea of the team's style of play or give further detail on why we're efficient or deficient in these areas. But these are the ones that tell you how many points you're getting per possession, how many points you give up per opposing possession, and how well you do with preventing extra possessions for the other team. Last year, we were only good at #1 while being poor to mediocre on #2 and #3. Importantly, as the season progressed we improved in these areas and that's why we became a good team. Also, the guys we have coming in and returning from injury are the ones that should impact #s 2 and 3 in positive ways.

We lost a lot from last year's team, but the losses were primarily to the offensive efficiency phase of the game. We were dominant there. We'll be worse. But if we can still be good (improved point guard play would mean a ton to this area), then we have a chance to be at least as successful as last year's squad as long as we make significant strides in defense and rebounding. The team may not be as pretty to watch, but there's an opportunity to win as much or more.

We'll certainly have a much more detailed preview ahead of the season, but I wanted to give a flavor of what we're thinking and hopefully get people excited for basketball. Last thing I'll say is that while I'm expecting to see good, winning basketball this year, the truth is that this team is probably 2 years away from being capable of making an appearance in the Top 25 and go on an NCAA tourney run. It will be fun to watch them develop.

 

[CarolinaBuff]

90% sure this team does not make the NCAA. NIT is a reasonable goal. we need people who can put the ball in the basket....lost a lot that. not sure we have it.

let's not replicate unreal expectations for Boyle the way we've done with Embree. losing sucks and we've done a lot of it. remember, we did get hosed, but we were an NIT team last year with a lottery pick and 3 time most underrated player in the conference.

I'll preface this by saying that I'm not up on the new starters for this year, but the bottom line is when a program of our stature loses its top 4 scorers it's pretty unrealistic to expect them to match last year's success even though we are going to an easier conference.

 

[dio]

I'll preface this by saying that I'm not up on the new starters for this year, but the bottom line is when a program of our stature loses its top 4 scorers it's pretty unrealistic to expect them to match last year's success even though we are going to an easier conference.

True - but if any sport is setup to make that happen, it is basketball

 

[Buffnik]

I'll preface this by saying that I'm not up on the new starters for this year, but the bottom line is when a program of our stature loses its top 4 scorers it's pretty unrealistic to expect them to match last year's success even though we are going to an easier conference.

Right now, it's hard to predict which 2 guys we can count on to be among our top 3 scorers every night. We need to find those 2 guys for a consistent offensive identity and so that we have options we know we can trust in late game situations.

But without getting into things, much like the Nugs after Melo was traded, sometimes you can lose talent but get better when what you have completely buys into the system and you don't have any factions on the team. There were reasons for some of the inconsistency, 1-on-1 offense, and lack of help defense last year that shouldn't be at issue this season.

 

[whatthebuff]

The PAC looks pretty open as far as I can tell. Lots of players were drafted...Zona lost Williams, Washington lost Thomas, WSU lost Klay Thompson, UCLA and USC lost a couple guys. I mean, we should have a decent chance at finishing in the top half.

Bees Knees
UCLA
Arizona
Washington

Dark Horse
Cal

Average Joes
CU
USC
Oregon
ASU
Stanford

Lowly Lows
WSU
OSU
Utah

 

[NashBuff]

I'm not going to shy away from high expectations and the day that they became more realistic was the day we dedicated the practice facility.

 

[Goose]

I have a hard time on this one. On one hand, I KNOW that The Sporting News is wrong about us (just picked up their preview mag this morning and they have us 11th in the Pac-12). On the other, I'm not sure I'm as optimistic as 'Nik on this one. I've been setting my expectations at an NIT bid this year. 'Nik makes a phenomenal point that our defense and rebounding will be tons better this season (as much as I love Burks, we will not miss his "defense"), and that alone will keep us in games this year. Our schedule is set up nicely, but there are going to be growing pains.

Right now, I'm in the NIT group, but it honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a run at the Tourney happen. There's talent here and as TSN put it "Boyle is worth a rung in the standings by himself".

 

[Buffnik]

So I'm clear, I'm not predicting the NCAA tourney. But do I think we could have a season similar to what USC turned in last year at 19-14 with a 10-8 conference record? Absolutely. It got them into the NCAAs and would certainly put us in the "bubble" conversation as an NCAA caliber program.

 

[SECOBuffsFan]

Getting the team to buy in defensively will be key...I don't think everyone did that last year...poor rotations, help late or not at all, rebounding was better but not what it should be.

Offensively, I think more balance is a good thing, but I look for Brown to take the big shots when we need them.