Welcome to the AllBuffs "Intro To APBRmetrics" area, or "How You Too Can Be A Stat Nerd". We're going to keep it simple, but this is going to discuss some stuff that we'll be discussing throughout the season when it comes to talking about the BasketBuffs. No more use of points per game for you. From now on, you're going to use words like "efficiency" and "tempo".
HISTORY
Everyone here has heard of "Moneyball", the book (now movie) of Billy Beane and how his use of Sabermetrics changed baseball. APBRmetrics is the basketball equivilent. Dean Oliver and John Hollinger both took Bill James' ideas for baseball and ushered them in to basketball using the internet. Basketball was more open to the idea of advanced stats than baseball was, with the Houston Rockets taking it to a new level in 2006 by hiring Daryl Morey as their GM.
TERMS WE WILL USE
The first four terms we will use are Dean Oliver's "Four Factors". These are considered the building blocks of APBRmetrics and efficiency. In other words, the better you are at these four things, the better your team is.
eFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage): eFG% = (.5*3FGM + FGM) / FGA
eFG% was developed to take into account the fact that the standard FG% doesn't account for the extra value per shot for a 3 pointer. For example, shooting 33.3% from three point range over six shots would equal 2 makes/6 attempts and yield 6 points for the team. To get the same 6 points shooting from two point range, a team needs to shoot 50% (3 makes /6 attempts). To account for this, "effective" Field Goal percentage was born. An easy example from last year is Shannon Sharpe. Here are his numbers from last season:
FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% TS% 29 69 .420 1 15 .067 .428
So, for Shannon, we have the following:
(.5 * 1 + 29)/69 = 29.5/69 = .4275
Another example is Levi Knutson:
FGM FGA FG% 3PM 3PA 3P% TS% 158 312 .506 81 171 .474 .636
(.5 * 81 +158)/312 = 198.5/312 = .636
TO% (Turnover Percentage): TO% = Turnovers/Possesions
This one is pretty self explanatory. Basically, if you have the ball 20 times and turn it over 3 times, your turnover percentage is 15%. A turnover is a wasted possesion. The less wasted possesions, the more likely you are to score. Just think of this as the basketball equivilent of dating.
OR% (Offensive Rebounding Percentage): OR% = OR / (Offensive Rebounds for You + Defensive Rebounds for the Opponent)
This is the percentage of shots that you miss that you're able to get the rebound on. It basically is saying "hey, it's ok if you miss the shot if you're going to get the rebound". Now KenPom makes a good point in that this stat does NOT include "team rebounds" (where two or more guys fight over the ball), so it doesn't always line up perfectly with box scores, but it's pretty consistent overall. Let's use last year's game at Kansas State for an example:
CU Off. Reb 10 KSU Def. Reb 14
Using the formula, we get:
10 / (10+14) = 10/24 = 41.7%
And that right there tells you why CU won that game.
FTRate (Free Throw Rate): FTRate = FTA/FGA
This metric tells you how often you're shooting free throws, which is more valuable in the college game than it is in the pros. The more you can get to the line, the more "free" points that you get. Let's use last year's Texas game for an example:
CU FTA 32 CU FGA 60
Using the formula, we get:
32/60 = 53.3%
And that's how we won the Texas game.
Now along with the four factors, there are three other terms you're going to see us use regularly. They are much easier.
Offensive/Defensive Efficiency = Points Scored * 100 / Possessions
This is just telling you how many points your team would score/give up if there were 100 possessions in a game. You will not see possessions listed in the box score, so I usually just rely to the people who are much smarter than I like Ken Pomeroy to inform me of these stats. For our example, we'll use a hypothetical game in which there are 67 posessions (which is right around the national average from last year):
Colorado 75 Arizona 72
For offensive efficiency, we would have:
75*100 / 67 = 111.9
For defensive efficiency, we would have:
72*100 / 67 = 107.5
The national average last year was 101.3, so this would be considered a great game for CU's offense, but a below average one for the D.
Pace
Pace is the last term we will use and it just basically tells you how many posessions a team has in a game. This is used for the efficiency stats mentioned above.
OTHER LINKS
There is a wealth of info out there, however it all starts with KenPom.com. Basically, if you can use KenPom for the basic info, you're set. Everyone should bookmark his site now.
Basketball Reference also has a college basketball section. I prefer the site for NBA info, but the college basketball stuff isn't bad either and is worth a bookmark.
Pac-12 - The Conference That Can Count
And that's why we're posting this. I promise it's not as tricky as it looks, so if there are any questions, please feel free to ask them. Buffnik and I are working on game previews for this season that will use some of these stats, so we wanted to get this up now so everyone could look over it in case they had questions.
Someone call the cops, cuz Goose is killin it.
Dats only in da mo-nin
"Living the dream...."
ESFJ
Rep. Thank you. These are interesting stats. I look forward to seeing them as the season progresses. Initially I am excited to see the free throw and rebounding ones. Free throws and rebounding are so important to a successful college team, I am glad to have what looks like a good way to measure them.
This type of stuff reminds of what the guy at Purple Row does for the Rockies. I like that kind of analysis and definitely appreciate the effort.
Great stuff, Goose.
If you look at the 2010-11 season, the Buffs were exceptionally good with offensive efficiency. Where we struggled was with rebounding efficiency and defensive efficiency. If we can make major strides in those areas, we can absorb the offensive losses from last season.
Basically, you have to look at it like a coach would.
Do we have someone as efficient as Alec Burks (#6 in the nation in offensive efficiency among players who played top minutes)? No.
Do we have a 6th man as efficient as Levi Knutson (#6 in the nation among all players in offensive efficiency regardless of minutes)? No.
So how do we make up for that?
1. We rebound better to get more possessions than our opponent.
2. We limit the other team's offensive efficiency so that our own offense doesn't have to be as good.
3. We limit turnovers so that we don't waste possessions.
4. We cause more turnovers in order to force wasted possessions.
These things are all complementary. If you control the defensive glass, you don't give up easy points (better d efficiency) and you're more likely to get easy points yourself off fast break opportunities (better o efficiency). Forcing turnovers work the same way.
We have an opportunity to be just as good as last season, or even better, if the team completely buys into Boyle's system and finishes Top 3 in the conference in rebounding and defense.
Holy shite this is awesome
Sent from my ADR6350 using Tapatalk
"Right now Alec Burks is using and abusing this Texas defense"
Stat nerds strike, well done Goose.
"Don't argue with an idiot, he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
ENTJ
Jesus, Goose. What's apbr stand for?
Leach: Do you want to fight a buffalo? I don't know, those buffalo are big. You know, buffalo are significantly bigger than elk. I grew up near Yellowstone so I've been near buffalo. Buffalo are huge. And then the other thing I've always gotten a kick out of: When you play Colorado, there's those buffalo dragging those six handler around. Those handlers aren't dragging the buffalo. The buffalo's dragging him.
Association for Professional Basketball ResearchOriginally Posted by Burrito Palazzo
Here's the wiki: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/APBRmetrics
?
Ok, be forewarned, I like basketball and stats a little too much. I have been playing around with the kenpom.com stats for the last month or so (also beware, the site is going from free to $20 a year in the next week). But here is something I put together for last years Pac 10 stats + CU and Utah.
Team Conf AdjTempo AdjOE eFG% TO% OR% FTRate AdjDE eFG% DEF TO% Def OR% DEF FTRate DEF Arizona 5 P10 66.2 117.3 54.1 18.8 33.7 43.6 96.4 48.6 18.6 29.2 36.6 Washington 7 P10 71.1 117.8 53.7 16.7 37.6 31.5 94.7 46.4 20.6 31.9 44 Colorado B12 67.9 117.3 52.5 16.9 34.6 39.3 102.4 50.6 19.3 32.4 35.7 Washington St. P10 68.5 106.5 51.6 18.2 28.2 36 94 46.1 21 32.8 32.6 California P10 68.8 109.3 50.8 19.5 30.1 47.1 98.9 50.4 18.2 28.6 33.8 UCLA 7 P10 66.6 107.2 50.3 22 35.7 44.3 93.2 46.3 18 31.3 33 Arizona St. P10 63.9 102.8 50.1 19 27.8 29 99.7 49.1 20 33 39.3 Southern California 11 P10 63.1 106.1 49.9 18.2 30.4 35.4 92.1 46.2 18.5 28.4 36.1 Stanford P10 65.6 103.2 49 20.4 33 37.7 97.6 49.1 21.3 30.1 36.3 Oregon P10 67.5 105.6 48.2 17.8 30.4 30.8 98.1 51.7 22.4 32.7 35.8 Utah MWC 68.3 100.9 47.7 20.1 28.8 36.7 99.3 47.4 15.7 32.2 38.7 Oregon St. P10 70.2 100.7 47.3 21.8 33.6 43.6 100.9 53.8 23.4 32.4 37.3
Great work, jgisland.
Three things that jumped out at me:
1. Tempo is fast in the Pac-12.
2. Washington is extremely well-coached.
3. Our defense was awful last year.
if I am reading it correctly, Washington was really aggressive on defense (high defensive FT rate) so they must have a deep bench to keep the offensive numbers up even with the foul trouble some guys would be in.
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