Reply With QuoteWe're going to have some epic battles with Washington in upcoming years - some 105-103 type games.
I have put together a bunch of stats and will post ones I find interesting as the season goes on. Here are a couple on Home vs Away Point Per game scoring as well as one on Home Court Advantage for last year. Home court advantage is calculated on Home Win % - Away Win %.
Team Home PPG Away PPG Diff HCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent) ARIZONA 79.9 73.7 6.2 31.304 ARIZONA ST 64.7 63.3 1.4 34.5029 CALIFORNIA 76 68.2 7.8 32.706 COLORADO 84.7 74 10.7 55.1136 OREGON 72.8 65.4 7.4 22.5274 OREGON ST 72.6 65.7 6.9 13.3928 STANFORD 68.9 63.7 5.2 28.5425 UCLA 70.7 69.3 1.4 40.1515 USC 66.3 66.2 0.1 34.2857 UTAH 71.3 63.1 8.2 22.6006 WASHINGTON 90.5 76.8 13.7 50 WASHINGTON ST 75.8 69.8 6 26.5734
A couple of noteworthy things.
1) CU played very well at home last year, scoring 10.7 PPG more at home than on the road and winning 55% more games at home than on the road.
2) UCLA didn't score many more pts at home than away (1.4), but won 40% more games at home than on the road. This year UCLA will be playing their "Home" games at the Los Angeles Sports Arena which is right next to USC as Pauley Pavilion is being renovated.
Good article on their attempted adjustment to their new home here.
3) Washington was a monster at home
We're going to have some epic battles with Washington in upcoming years - some 105-103 type games.
It would be awesome if we did this exact thing for the last couple years. Find out who has had the best average home field advantage. I'm guessing Washington.
Another great post, jgisland.
YMSSRA
Someone please hit him with their rep stick for me.
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Where we need to get is to be almost impossible to beat at home for anyone except the true elites while winning 50% on the road. When we get there, we'll be a consistent tournament team.
Only Irish coffee provides in a single glass all four essential food groups: alcohol, caffeine, sugar and fat. - Alex Levine
I hit him hard with my rep stick.Originally Posted by Buffnik
btbuff you are quite correct, Washington has had the best home court advantage over the last 5 years. However the Buffs are # 2 in HCA and PPG differential.
Below is the info for HCA (Home court advantage, which is calculated by Home Court Win % - Road Win %) as well as PPG differential (calculated by avg home points per game scored - avg away points per game scored).
2010/2011 2009/2010 2008/2009 2007/2008 2006/2007 5 YR AVG Team HCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent) ARIZONA 31.304 32.38636364 66.818 12.5 9.049773756 30.41166384 ARIZONA ST 34.5029 38.75598086 21.25 32.02614379 30.55555556 31.41811604 CALIFORNIA 32.706 38.23529412 38.889 1.212121212 15.55555556 25.31957195 COLORADO 55.1136 64.583 47.059 16.923 31.6667 43.06902 OREGON 22.5274 21.53110048 15.294 33.33333333 32.14285714 24.96576172 OREGON ST 13.3928 29.23076923 25.481 6.043956044 19.02834008 18.63532692 STANFORD 28.5425 45.83333333 45.701 34.52380952 30.55555556 37.03131118 UCLA 40.1515 32.5 24.211 3.333333333 25.21367521 25.08180697 USC 34.2857 50.56818182 63.889 3.03030303 32.80632411 36.91587957 UTAH 22.6006 19.6078 41.346 38.6363 55.3571 35.50958 WASHINGTON 50 49.47368421 30 22.5 81.66666667 46.72807018 WASHINGTON ST 26.5734 43.75 10.795 -5.76923077 14.97975709 18.06587617 PPG H/A DIFF TEAM 2010/2011 2009/2010 2008/2009 2007/2008 2006/2007 5 YR AVG ARIZONA 6.2 5.3 5.3 8.5 2.9 5.64 ARIZONA ST 1.4 3.1 6.7 10.4 12.5 6.82 CALIFORNIA 7.8 3.7 5 -3.6 8 4.18 COLORADO 10.7 2.6 2.2 7.5 13.3 7.26 OREGON 7.4 3.5 8.9 9.6 0.6 6 OREGON ST 6.9 1.4 -2.8 6.2 3.1 2.96 STANFORD 5.2 3.2 3.4 4.8 5.8 4.48 UCLA 1.4 6.4 6.9 7.5 2.7 4.98 USC 0.1 0.6 4.4 3.1 10.9 3.82 UTAH 8.2 6.7 4.3 4.3 4.8 5.66 WASHINGTON 13.7 2.6 1.4 15.2 9 8.38 WASHINGTON ST 6 -0.9 1.8 2.8 -0.2 1.9
I'm not sure how I feel about the HCA stat. I think it's suggestive more than definitive. For example, let's say a team wins 90% of its games at home but 80% on the road. That team would be a +10. If another team wins 50% of its home games and 20% of its road games, it would be a +30. There's value here, but I think that it may point more to being a bad road team (or just plain bad or good) in a lot of cases versus being especially good at home.
Completely agree, the HCA stat in itself only tells part of the story, you need to look at the overall team records in conjunction, but as the sample size gets bigger (5 years is still a relatively small sample size) it does start to actually tell a story. You also need to look at the bigger picture, PPG Home vs Road helps tell that as well as H vs R tempo.
There is an interesting read here on a study about college basketball HCA. It also may put you to sleep.......
Or is it all about the ball?
Jgisland if I could rep you I would. Excellent work.
gotcha covered
We should have listened to Colorado fans.
Ken Pomeroy has an article on HCA today featured in ESPN (insider access required). He used a similar methodology as I did, taking home margin of victory vs. away margin of victory. He did this for the all of DI but didn't publish the whole list. He basically found that HCA has more to do with altitude and travel than a hostile crowd, high altitude schools Utah Valley and DU were in the top 10. No mention of CU but worth the read.
A lot of research suggests that HCA doesn't have a ton to do with a hostile crowd but rather is mostly from familiarity with surroundings. Of course altitude is another factor that definitely has an impact. It's more geared towards football, but advancednflstats.com has some good posts on the topic of HCA/HFA.
Would not be surprised at all if CU has the biggest HCA in the upcoming years.
Boyle has made Boulder a nearly impossible place to win - we should have beaten Kansas in here last year but that was the best team we have faced in Boulder during Boyle's short but fabulous tenure here....it still baffles me how Wyoming beat us.
Maybe the band could signal it by blasting a funeral dirge -- dum, dum, da-dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum.
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