Confused about the terminology? Check out the AllBuffs.com Intro to APBRmetrics (or "How to Become a Stat Nerd").
I have calculated Win Shares and Adjusted +/- for the last 5 seasons. I will update this info as the season goes on for the 2011/2012 season. **updated for the 11/12 season through the Oregon St. game**
Individual Efficiency Rating (IER) - is a stat used to evaluate individual game performances. This stat was created by Jerry Krause, current Director of Operations for Gonzaga. The formula and more info about it can be found here. Letter grades are associated with the number, so each player is graded on each game. This is the evaluation method that CU and Coach Boyle use to evaluate players.
Win Shares - this is a method made popular by Bill James initially for baseball, it has now been adopted for basketball as well. In this method 1 win share is equal to 1 team win, you will see that the team win shares do not exactly add up to the total number of team wins, but it does come very close. (You will see that for the 06/07 season the biggest dispersion, this is due to CU having one of the worst defenses in the country.) Win Shares formula and further explanation can be found here. In my opinion Win Shares does a pretty nice job of capturing who is to credit (or blame) for wins and losses, it takes into account defensive stats which many advanced stats don't do. You will see offensive, defensive and total win shares. This is probably the best stat at capturing what is actually happening.
Adjusted +/- is a very new stat, this was introduced by Nathan Walker last week in the 2011/2012 Basketball Prospectus. Nathan Walker has a blog Basketball Distribution that does a nice job of capturing and analyzing College Basketball using "advanced stats." It his article, "The Statistical Holy Grail:Combining Usage and Efficiency" he does a nice take on +/-, he actually accounts for offensive efficiency with % of possessions used and it is adjusted for strength of schedule. Running the number for the last 5 years this adjusted +/- actually passes the eye test, as discussed in this thread I talk a little more about my issues with +/-, but this seems to actually do a nice job capturing what is actually going on. **Note, this number does not take into account any defensive numbers, it only takes into account offensive numbers**
Numbers for this data was sourced from kenpom.com, statsheet.com and sports-reference.com
Current IER, Win Shares and Adjusted +/1.
IER
Player Ft.Lewis Wichita St. Maryland W. Michigan Air Force Georgia CSU Fresno St Wyoming Cal St - B Tex So NO Utah UW WSU CAL Stanford ASU Arizona USC UCLA OSU Oregon Arizona ASU Utah Stanford Cal Oregon Oregon St. Nate Tomlinson A- D C+ A+ A+ F B A+ D D A+ B+ D A+ A+ F C+ B+ C+ A+ D B- C B- B+ D D B+ F B- Andre Roberson A+ C A+ C A+ A+ D A+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C A- A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ A+ A- A+ Spencer DinWiddie C+ A+ F A+ D A+ B- B- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B F F B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B- B- A+ A+ F C+ C+ D Austin Dufault A+ A+ A+ A+ B- F B C F A+ A+ A+ B B+ B+ C+ A+ B C+ B+ F A+ C B- A- C+ F D B- C+ Carlon Brown D B+ C A B- B- D D C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A+ B- A- F C D D C+ F D F A+ B Askia Booker C+ A+ B- C+ C A+ D F D C+ A+ A+ B B+ B+ F F D C+ A- A+ A+ B F C D C+ D D A+ Jeremy Adams DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP F C+ B F F B D A+ B+ F F F A- F C F A+ F B- D D F A+ D F Shane Harris-Tunks F D B C+ D D C+ B+ C+ F B- B- D B- D C F D A+ F C+ D D F D F F A+ A+ F Sabatino Chen B A+ B+ D F B- F F B- A A+ A+ C A- A+ F D F A+ F F C F F A+ A+ D F F A+ Damiene Cain DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP C C+ DNP DNP DNP F B- F F D N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Shannon Sharpe D F F F F DNP DNP A+ DNP DNP A+ A+ A+ F DNP DNP DNP F DNP D DNP D DNP DNP DNP DNP C DNP DNP F Ben Mills D DNP DNP F DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP B- B- D DNP DNP DNP DNP F DNP DNP DNP B- DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP A+ Beau Webb DNP F DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP B B A+ DNP DNP DNP DNP F DNP DNP DNP F DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP Trey Eckloff A+ DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP A+ A+ D F DNP DNP DNP F DNP F DNP F F DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Win Shares
2011/2012 Carlon Brown Andre Roberson Austin Dufault Spencer Dinwiddie Askia Booker Nate Tomlinson Shane Harris-Tunks Jeremy Adams Sabatino Chen Shannon Sharpe Damiene Cain Trey Eckloff Totals Off Win Share 1.83 2.28 1.90 2.24 0.96 1.00 0.19 -0.20 0.34 0.08 0.08 0.01 10.70 Def Win Share 1.48 4.32 1.31 1.39 0.97 1.11 0.83 0.34 0.48 0.19 0.09 0.03 12.55 Total Win Share 3.31 6.60 3.21 3.63 1.93 2.11 1.02 0.14 0.82 0.27 0.17 0.05 23.25
Adjusted +/-
sos adj -0.46 Player YR Ortg % Poss Off PM Adj Off P/M per 100 poss Total Value per 40 min % Min Played Nate Tomlinson Sr 99.9 12.8 -1.80 -2.25 -1.67 73.9 Carlon Brown Sr 102.4 24.6 1.54 1.09 0.77 71.1 Austin Dufault Sr 107.7 21.2 1.85 1.39 0.94 67.5 Andre Roberson So 108.7 21.9 2.31 1.85 1.39 75.2 Spencer DinWiddie Fr 111 19.4 1.92 1.47 1.00 68.4 Jeremy Adams So 75.1 18.6 -5.20 -5.66 -1.20 21.2 Askia Booker Fr 96.5 25.1 0.07 -0.39 -0.20 52.2 Shane Harris-Tunks So 78.4 17.3 -4.52 -4.97 -1.59 31.9 Sabatino Chen So 99.2 12.8 -1.88 -2.34 -0.56 23.9 Shannon Sharpe So 58.9 18 -8.11 -8.57 -0.84 9.8 Ben Mills So 79.6 22.9 -4.47 -4.93 -0.08 1.7 Beau Webb Fr 187.2 7.5 1.41 0.95 0.02 1.8 Trey Eckloff Sr 84.2 20 -3.43 -3.89 -0.09 2.2 Damien Cain Fr 62.5 15.1 -6.75 -7.20 -0.54 7.5
Historical Win Shares
2010/2011 Burks Higgins Knutson Relphorde Roberson Default Tomlinson Sharpe Eckloff Mills Coney Beckley Totals Off Win Share 3.99 2.52 3.45 1.60 1.61 1.05 0.91 0.09 0.04 -0.09 0.05 -0.09 15.11 Def Win Share 1.57 1.18 0.64 1.08 2.31 1.18 0.64 0.52 0.10 0.13 0.10 0.00 9.45 Total Win Share 5.56 3.69 4.09 2.67 3.92 2.24 1.54 0.61 0.15 0.03 0.15 -0.09 24.56 2009/2010 Higgins Burks Relphorde Thorse Dufault Tomlinson Crawford Knutson Hornbuckle Harris-Tunks Eckloff Beckley Totals Off Win Share 3.87 3.50 0.79 1.62 0.58 1.35 0.68 0.34 0.20 0.26 -0.17 0.02 13.04 Def Win Share 0.23 0.22 0.17 0.10 0.15 0.13 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.12 0.02 0.00 1.35 Total Win Share 4.10 3.72 0.97 1.72 0.73 1.49 0.77 0.39 0.25 0.38 -0.15 0.02 14.38 2008/2009 Higgins Thorne Dufault Tomlinson Jackson-Wilson Crawford Knutson Eckloff Kelley Veal Coney Zehnder Totals Off Win Share 3.82 2.61 0.47 1.48 0.86 0.48 0.11 0.04 0.29 0.03 -0.36 0.02 9.85 Def Win Share 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 Total Win Share 3.82 2.61 0.47 1.48 0.87 0.49 0.11 0.04 0.29 0.03 -0.36 0.02 9.86 2007/2008 Roby Hall Higgins Silas Jackson-Wilson Knutson Thorne King-Stockton Patterson Coney Beckley Zehnder Totals Off Win Share 3.44 2.62 1.35 0.46 0.12 0.83 0.38 0.10 -0.33 0.13 0.07 0.07 9.22 Def Win Share 0.00 0.70 0.59 0.31 0.60 0.15 0.16 0.62 0.09 0.02 0.03 0.00 3.28 Total Win Share 3.44 3.32 1.94 0.77 0.71 0.97 0.54 0.72 -0.23 0.15 0.10 0.07 12.49 2006/2007 Roby Coleman Silas Jackson-Wilson Williams Bay King-Stockton Thorne Kowal Inge Perkowski Van Totals Off Win Share 0.46 1.72 0.88 1.01 0.69 0.39 -0.33 -0.52 -0.07 -0.01 -0.04 -0.14 4.05 Def Win Share 0.17 0.21 0.11 0.20 0.15 0.06 0.15 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.00 0.01 1.16 Total Win Share 0.63 1.94 0.99 1.21 0.85 0.45 -0.18 -0.47 -0.04 0.00 -0.03 -0.13 5.22
Historical Adjusted +/-
2010-2011
sos adj -0.27 0.27 Player YR Ortg % Poss Off PM Adj Off P/M per 100 poss Total Value per 40 min % Min Played Burks So 115.70 32.20 8.32 8.59 6.67 77.72 Higgins Sr 110.30 24.80 3.72 3.99 3.17 79.61 Relphorde Sr 103.00 22.00 1.01 1.28 0.89 69.58 Knutson Sr 131.20 16.20 3.98 4.25 2.82 66.38 Roberson Fr 118.30 16.30 1.96 2.23 1.23 55.18 Dufault Jr 115.90 15.00 1.02 1.29 0.71 55.05 Sharpe So 97.30 12.20 -2.22 -1.95 -0.63 32.44 Tomlinson Jr 108.30 10.10 -1.71 -1.44 -0.65 44.69
2009-2010
sos adj -1.06 1.06 Player YR Ortg % Poss Off PM Adj Off P/M per 100 poss Total Value per 40 min % Min Played Higgins 112.50 26.80 5.08 6.14 5.09 82.90 Burks 116.40 26.80 6.22 7.28 5.29 72.60 Relphorde 94.00 25.00 -0.63 0.43 0.28 64.90 Thorne 110.50 17.80 1.25 2.31 1.16 50.50 Crawford 106.20 16.80 0.17 1.22 0.35 28.70 Tomlinson 106.60 13.70 -0.73 0.33 0.22 67.60 Dufult 106.20 14.30 -0.60 0.46 0.24 53.30 Harris-Tunks 67.30 12.90 -5.64 -4.58 -1.20 26.20 Knutson 108.40 14.80 -0.13 0.93 0.22 23.40 Hornbuckle 101.60 12.90 -1.57 -0.52 -0.11 21.90
2008-2009
sos adj -0.50 0.50 Player YR Ortg % Poss Off PM Adj Off P/M per 100 poss Total Value per 40 min % Min Played Higgins 106.70 26.40 3.25 3.75 3.42 91.30 Crawford 103.40 22.30 1.19 1.68 0.48 28.30 Thorne 103.60 19.90 0.58 1.08 0.89 82.50 Dufault 89.00 18.30 -2.58 -2.09 -1.58 75.90 Tomlinson 92.80 16.10 -2.18 -1.68 -1.26 75.00 Jackson-Wilson 92.80 19.40 -1.72 -1.23 -0.62 50.80 Knutson 88.50 17.60 -2.74 -2.24 -0.85 37.90 Eckloff 75.20 18.90 -5.21 -4.71 -0.99 21.00 Coney 66.10 12.10 -5.62 -5.13 -0.83 16.10
2007-2008
sos adj -1.12 1.12 Player YR Ortg % Poss Off PM Adj Off P/M per 100 poss Total Value per 40 min % Min Played Roby 100.90 29.10 2.22 3.34 2.88 86.00 Hall 107.50 22.10 2.09 3.22 3.00 93.20 Silas 91.60 22.50 -1.59 -0.46 -0.24 52.50 Jackson-Wilson 89.30 20.00 -2.37 -1.25 -0.59 47.40 Higgins 96.40 16.60 -1.51 -0.39 -0.33 83.30 Knutson 103.70 14.70 -0.83 0.29 0.13 45.30 King-Stockton 87.20 12.30 -3.32 -2.20 -0.90 41.10 Thorne 96.90 14.80 -1.77 -0.65 -0.22 33.60
2006-2007
sos adj -0.60 0.60 Player YR Ortg % Poss Off PM Adj Off P/M per 100 poss Total Value per 40 min % Min Played Roby 93.20 29.80 -0.16 -0.10 -0.08 80.30 Coleman 101.50 22.20 0.71 0.43 0.31 72.40 Silas 95.50 21.80 -0.77 -0.46 -0.32 68.10 Jackson-Wilson 100.00 19.80 -0.19 -0.11 -0.07 58.00 Bay 89.00 17.60 -2.65 -1.59 -0.86 53.80 Williams 98.50 19.00 -0.67 -0.40 -0.21 53.50 King-Stockton 82.40 14.30 -3.84 -2.31 -1.08 46.80 Thorne 69.60 14.30 -5.58 -3.36 -1.15 34.10 Kowal 79.60 7.20 -4.02 -2.42 -0.51 21.20
Last edited by jgisland; 04-18-2012 at 02:42 PM.
This is unreal and deserves a sticky and lots of rep.
Great work.
so basically you are saying DOOOM....
Great stuff, jgisland.
What I'm getting from this is mostly a statistical representation of just what a special offensive player Alec Burks was for us.
Nate needs to make a jump as a senior after being on the same level for 3 years. Austin needs to make a big senior jump like Levi did. Roberson needs to make a year-to-year progression. Carlon Brown needs to replace Higgins' production. The rest of the new guys and returning players need to have a positive impact.
I think this is all realistic. Even likely.
Put it all together and we make up for everyone but Alec.
How large a dent we are able to make in Alec's production will decide whether this is a winning season or not.
I think you meant Roberson above rather than Relphorde. I agree with your assessment Buffnik, I hadn't really got a chance to analyze the data, spent so much time compiling it, but a couple of thing stood out to me. Dufault had a pretty nice season last year and I hope he does continues to progress. Tomlinson doesn't do much from a statistical perspective. Not enough can be said about Roberson last year, he was a freaking monster on D, so good that he surprisingly had more total Win Shares than Higgins did last year. Hopefully he keeps it up on the D side of the ball and develops and is efficient on O.Originally Posted by Buffnik
Random non-connected thoughts:
the 06/07 season was ugly, ugly, ugly.
Burks was so much more of an offensive talent than Roby was. Higgins and Roby are a better comparison of offensive talent, I hope Higgins gets a shot in the "league" if they ever play again.
Somebody is going to have to step up and replace Relphorde, he was a productive role player last year.
I <3 stats, but this is ridiculous.
my head hurts haha rep
Fixed it. I can't tell you how much I'm loving this, jgisland.
And, yeah, the numbers really tell the story of the difference between a Lottery pick and a 2nd round talent.
so the more I think about these stats the more I think it measures a player in a one on one or a man situation.
win shares has been updated for the 2011/12 season for the fort lewis game. adjusted +/- will be updated when the data become available in early December.
the offensive numbers for Dre don't seem accurate.
just doubled checked them, they are correct. he shot 44% from the field, 33% from 3 and only had 1 assist. Efficiency on offense has a big play in Win Shares, (hence why high offensive usage guys with low effiency look so poor in win shares, think melo/iverson). Dre wasn't terribly efficient on the offensive side of the Fort Lewis game.
defensive #s sure look good for Roberson tho.
which is strange because his defense was **** and his offense was pretty good. go figure.
I think you've got to give Dre credit for taking Ft Lewis' best offensive player, Matt Morris, out of the game. He didn't score a field goal.
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