This Week In BasketBuffs - 1/16/12

[Goose]

LAST WEEK

MEN

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

57

50

Saturday, January 14th, 2012

84

64

WOMEN

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

68

55

Saturday, January 14th, 2012

80

54

That sucked.

I honestly thought both teams would be able to get a split this week. When the men played a tight game against Cal (a game I couldn't see thanks to Comcast), I figured we would take Stanford out. I figured with the laid back crowd (the 9ers game was at the same time) and the team pissed off after letting the Cal game slip away, they'd take control and find a way to finish the week 4-1 in conference. When the Buffs tied the game at 42, despite playing some pretty sub-par ball, I thought this is where we make our move, flip a few things and go on a big run to put the Cardinal away.

Only to watch Stanford do that exact thing. Next thing I knew, it was 74-47 for the Trees, and we were going to be heading back to Boulder 3-2. Much smarter people than I have written about this game, so I'm just going to say that I'm taking the good from the week, ignoring the bad, and hoping we move on here.

On the numbers side, the men's RPI actually stayed the same this week, but our SOS went from 65 to 20. So that was a nice bump. Our offensive efficiency took a huge hit, dropping from 105.0 to 103.5 and our eFG% slippd from 52.2% to 50.9%.

As for the ladies, the Stanford game went as some expected, but the Cal game is the one that will haunt the team. The Buffs were up 11 at the half, but went ice cold for the last 7 minutes of the game as Cal finished on a 29-4 run to finish the Buffs off. Brutal week for the women's team in RPI as they fall from 90th to 111th. At least the SOS went up from 324th to 264th.

Time to put this week behind us and move on to the Arizona schools.

THIS WEEK

Men: Thursday, January 19th 6:30 PM ROOT Sports RM Coors Event Center Boulder, CO

Women: Thursday, January 19th 11:00 AM No TV Wells Fargo Arena Tempe, AZ

Men: Saturday, January 21st 4:00 PM ROOT Sports RM Coors Event Center Boulder, CO

Women: Sunday, January 22nd 2:30 PM Fox Sports McKale Center Tucson, AZ

Time to see how the teams can rebound. The men have an easier task this week, if for no other reason that they get to try to rebound from the confines of the Keg. First up, they get the Sun Devils of Arizona State. All season people have been discussing ASU belonging in the bottom third of the conference and they've done nothing to make anyone think any differently so far this season with a 6-11 record overall. That said, they are 2-3 in the PAC-12 with wins at USC and at home against Oregon State so they're not completely incompetent (side question -- does someone win the PAC-12 with a 10-8 record this season?). That said, Arizona State turns the ball over a LOT -- on 26.2% of their possessions. Hopefully, the Buffs can take advantage of this. In a discussion with jgisland last week, I noticed that the Buffs are becoming more and more efficient on defense -- they're 95th in the nation today. However, they're only 293rd in forcing opponents turnovers. If you look through the "top" defensive teams, you'll notice that they force a lot of turnovers to keep their numbers down.

The other team I noticed in my quick scan of the "top" defensive teams in the nation that struggles at forcing turnovers? Saturday's opponent. Arizona's 36th in the nation in defensive efficiency, but 294th in forcing turnovers. This is a strong, fundamentally sound defensive team. However, like everyone else in the PAC-12, they're wildly inconsistent and already have "disappointing" losses to UCLA and Oregon this season. The team is talented, but it's insane and is ripe for CU to pick them off.

The women technically should have a decent chance to pick up two wins this week, but it depends on which Buffs team shows up. The Buffs are higher in RPI (65) than Arizona (66) and Arizona State (186) and we know that when the team is clicking they can look pretty damn good. If nothing else, the wins would probably help our recruiting efforts. We already have landed a commit from Tucson forward Jamee Swan and are currently going after Chandler forward/post Je Zhe Newton.

Also, the women's team finally has a presence on twitter. If it's anything like our men's team's feed, it's worth your time to follow them. Make sure you check them out at @CUBuffsWBB.

	Colorado Offense	Colorado Defense	Arizona St Offense	Arizona St Defense	D1 Average
eFG%	50.9%	46.6%	53.9%	47.6%	48.9%
Turnover %	21.5%	18.0%	26.2%	17.1%	20.8%
Off. Reb %	32.6%	30.5%	31.3%	30.5%	32.5%
FTA/FGA	45.9	32.9	42.6	37.7	36.6

	Colorado Offense	Colorado Defense	Arizona Offense	Arizona Defense	D1 Average
eFG%	50.9%	46.6%	51.6%	44.8%	48.9%
Turnover %	21.5%	18.0%	20.1%	18.0%	20.8%
Off. Reb %	32.6%	30.5%	30.7%	30.0%	32.5%
FTA/FGA	45.9	32.9	40.9	33.1	36.6

SEASON NUMBERS TO FOLLOW

	Offensive Efficiency	Defensive Efficiency	Pace
Colorado	103.5	96.1	66.5
D1 Average	100.4	100.4	67.0

RPI Rankings

	RPI	SOS
Men	65	20
Women	111	264

[Buffnik]

Would it really be an upset? I think that game's a coin flip at home.

[Darth Snow]

Would it really be an upset? I think that game's a coin flip at home.

If you are referring ot the Arizona game, I think every home game for us the rest of the year based on kenpom or whatever was at worst a 40% chance of victory, so not far off.

[Buffnik]

If you are referring ot the Arizona game, I think every home game for us the rest of the year based on kenpom or whatever was at worst a 40% chance of victory, so not far off.

Thanks for the info backing up my opinion. I was referencing the poll question.

[Goose]

Probably a poor choice of words on my part. Let me change that.

[Darth Snow]

Thanks for the info backing up my opinion. I was referencing the poll question.

Ah. Your intent was murky.

[RumblinBuff]

It's at home, with students; we win.

[Darth Snow]

who hath joined me in saying NO! to the victory?

[CVilleBuff]

ASU should obviously be a win, but in their last game the Sun Devils did produce arguably their best performance of the year with a 76-66 win over Oregon State in Tucson.

We should beat Arizona at home, as well. Seen the 'Cats a few times this year, and I'm just not impressed. That loss to Oregon in Tucson wasn't a fluke, the 'Cats just aren't very good...

[MrFrumpylane]

who hath joined me in saying NO! to the victory?

[ShockerHoops]

I'm a good luck charm for you gentlemen. I turned the Stanford game on when you all had your biggest deficit of 27. With the help of my good luck, I willed your team to come back just a bit. With me watching, you guys are +7 in the point category when I watch conference play.

I will take donations for a flight and tickets to all remaining games. Shelter/booze/food is always enjoyed, but not demanded upon.

[buffgal]

I am optomitically hopeful that the women can at least get a split. Playing at 11 AM on a Thursday is going to be so weird and different for them. On paper, CU is good enough to beat both of the Arizona schools. Time will tell if they can pull this off on the road.

[Buffnik]

I am optomitically hopeful that the women can at least get a split. Playing at 11 AM on a Thursday is going to be so weird and different for them. On paper, CU is good enough to beat both of the Arizona schools. Time will tell if they can pull this off on the road.

Getting both of these would go a long way toward a tourney bid. Huge week for WBB.

[Quattro]

2-0 this week.

[Goose]

I am optomitically hopeful that the women can at least get a split. Playing at 11 AM on a Thursday is going to be so weird and different for them. On paper, CU is good enough to beat both of the Arizona schools. Time will tell if they can pull this off on the road.

Why are they playing at 11 AM anyway?