This Year in BasketBuffs -- What's Next?

[Goose]

In the past week, we've taken a look at the individual pieces of the team in our AllBuffs "This Year In BasketBuffs - Year End Review/Preview", but today is the day we see how it all fits together and what we could be looking at next season. If you've missed anything, here's what we've gone over so far:

Monday: The Graduating Seniors
Tuesday: The Frontcourt Players
Wednesday: The Backcourt Players
Thursday: The Newcomers

So with that, let's take a look at next season's roster. Before we get too far, I just want to point out that these are purely my educated guesses and therefore there is a 99% chance that I'm going to be wrong. If you want proof, just know that last summer I was convinced that Ski was going to redshirt his freshman year before 'Nik said "Actually, he may lead us in scoring". So just remember, you get what you pay for in this preview (there's a reason it's not posted in Barzil). First, let's take at the current projected depth chart for next season (note: I have removed walk-ons from the lineup).

2012 Roster
Position	Senior	Junior	Sophomore	Freshmen
PG		Shannon Sharpe*	Spencer Dinwiddie	Eli Stalzer Xavier Talton
SG	Sabatino Chen*		Askia Booker
SF		Jeremy Adams*		Xavier Johnson Chris Jenkins
PF		Andre Roberson		Wesley Gordon
C		Shane Harris-Tunks* Ben Mills		Josh Scott
* = Redshirted	Official CU Roster

As currently constructed, that team has all of its scholarships for 2012-13 filled (in this scenario, Chen would be taken off of scholarship per his agreement with the team). I honestly had hoped that we would have resolution on the Sharpe & Mills situations by now, but it sounds like we won't know until next week. My educated guess is that at least one of them will transfer and it wouldn't surprise me if both of them did when it's all said & done. This info is partially based off of the fact that in his chat this week, Ryan Thorburn mentioned that he thinks CU will have "at least one" player transfer in. There's been a lot of talk about Michigan transfer Evan Smotrycz but he's hardly a lock to come here. Honestly, I think we're going to see a guard transfer in to provide some depth in the backcourt who only has one year to play. That way, we would have that scholarship available again at the end of the season as well.

So what should we expect from the team next year? The trip to Europe this summer will definitely help. For a squad that is going to depend on at least 4 freshmen contributing, they're going to need the head start on figuring everything out. The strength of this team is going to be it's athleticism and rebounding. Any team with Roberson on it is going to have a bit of an advantage on the boards, but when you figure that Johnson and Scott are expected to get quality minutes as well, you have to realize that the Buffs are going to have a solid foundation for rebounding. If Gordon gets solid PT next year as well, you can expect to see the Buffs offensive rebounding numbers rise from the bottom third of college basketball to the top half at a minimum. This team should be relentless on the boards.

So where are we going to see the biggest drop off? I'm nervous about leadership. Carlon Brown was known for rallying the team in huddles, Austin Dufault led by example and Nate's speech before the PAC-12 tourney is referred to as one of the turning points of the season. Who's going to step up for the Buffs this year? The only senior on the roster is Chen who, due to a lack of minutes, probably won't be grabbing any leadership roles. Roberson would be the next most likely player, but he's always been the silent type and it doesn't seem to be his style to speak out. Will Ski or The Mayor grab the leadership role? Will anyone? This could go a long way to deciding how the team plays this year.

I'm also concerned about bench scoring. In Boyle's two years at CU, he's had a tendency to go more with "line changes" than minor substitutions which occasionally leads to the Buffs having four reserves on the floor with one starter at a time. If Booker joins Dinwiddie, Johnson, Scott and Roberson in the starting lineup, who is going to provide scoring off of the bench? Adams, Chen and Harris-Tunks are all pretty much guarantees to be in the rotation, but none are really known for their scoring. Will Jenkins be ready to play? Gordon? This is where the potential senior transfer might come in to play.

Looking over next season, I don't think it's unrealistic to think that the Buffs will be a more talented team next year, and may even be a better team overall, but have worse results. A tourney run isn't out of the question, but it's not the no-brainer that many think. We're not the only ones in the conference getting a talent influx from the class of 2012 -- Arizona has the #1 recruiting class in the nation right now and UCLA has added Kyle Anderson and still has a shot at Shabazz Muhammad. The PAC-12 still won't be great, but they're going to be better next season.

Right now, I'm thinking that 20 wins is a realistic goal. Remember, teams still can't win at altitude, and we're going to be looking at another bubble weekend. I think the Buffs are a borderline NCAA team that could slip in to the NIT due to conference strength. The real excitement begins with 2013-14 though. With Ski & The Mayor finally being upperclassment, and the class of 2011 having a year's experience under their belts, the team should be ready to go. I honestly believe that Boyle will pull off a magic trick one way or another to land one or two members of the class of 2013 -- and there are some serious difference makers we're in on right now. At that point I think we're looking at a team that is considered one of the favorites to win the conference and is a pre-season lock for the tourney. While next season may not lead to the big dance, one thing I can say for certain is that it's going to be a hell of a ride and if you're in the area, you will not find a better value for your buck than season tickets.

[jgisland]

Another great wrap-up Goose.

I think CU is going to be a bubble team as well, but the homer in me says CU gets in.

A couple of comments:

Can CU continue to win without and elite scorer or "go to guy" on offense? Last year there were six games where a player had 20+ pts, (Carlon and Dre each had 3). The year before CU had 37, (Alec had 26 of them). Maybe they can continue to have 4 guys average around 10 pts and win, but I am just not so sure. I think Dinwiddie is the most likely to step up and put the offense on his back and take the shots in crunch time.

Goose mentioned it, but the lineups in shifts drives me freaking insane. Ski being as effective as he was playing with Simba, Chen and Adams for the majority of his minutes is really a testament to his game.

I can't wait to see CU's rebounding numbers next year, CU may very well win games they shouldn't next year purely based on limiting opponents second chance opportunities and extending offensive possessions with offensive rebounds. There could be games where they shoot terribly and they find a way to win by hitting the boards.

[Darth Snow]

Agreed, jg. This is the best buff basketball stuff on the web. Also, Goose, I completely agree with your leadership worries. And I'm pretty sure the leader is going to be Spencer. He's got the skill. He's got (enough) experience. He's got the championship ring. And he's not afraid to say something (that twitter convo with Alec still has me laughing).

However, I think Ski will also step up. I haven't forgotten early in the year in this last season when it was Ski telling Nate to shut the **** up and calm down. As the year went on, Nate and Carlon asserted themselves, but early on the frosh were the more obvious leaders.

That said... I still worry

[Goose]

Can CU continue to win without and elite scorer or "go to guy" on offense? Last year there were six games where a player had 20+ pts, (Carlon and Dre each had 3). The year before CU had 37, (Alec had 26 of them). Maybe they can continue to have 4 guys average around 10 pts and win, but I am just not so sure. I think Dinwiddie is the most likely to step up and put the offense on his back and take the shots in crunch time.

Honestly, I think we will see the Mayor step up in crunch time next year. Also, don't discount XJ being our "go to" guy. He's the type of player who seems to thrive when the pressure's on, so between those two, I think we're ok. That said, I think we're looking at another year where we have four guys averaging 10-15 points -- Mayor, Ski, XJ & Dre. I think Scott will be close too.

Goose mentioned it, but the lineups in shifts drives me freaking insane. Ski being as effective as he was playing with Simba, Chen and Adams for the majority of his minutes is really a testament to his game.

I'm seriously giddy about seeing Ski out there with players who can take some of the pressure off of him. There might be nights where teams are double teaming him just to get the ball out of his hands.

[Rugged]

I'd like to think we will, but I don't. For some reason I'm getting a feeling that we struggle and I don't like it. Stupid brain.

[MtnBuff]

Nice write-up.

I agree that at least one on Sharpe and Mills transfers, for their sake I hope they both do. I think they can both contribute to a program but it won't be this one. Neither is going to see much playing time if they do stay so the big significance would be freeing up a scholly for someone else, not something that will directly impact next season on the floor.

It is easy to get a negative feeling about the Buffs for next year since the league is going to be stronger and they are losing some key guys, especially Austin, Carlon and Nate. Then I think about how much they lost the year before and realize that as long as Tad is the coach it's a mistake to write this team off for anything.

Buffs basketball was a lot of fun when Chauncey was here but we all understood it was Chauncey and not the program. We had some brief glimmers of hope when David Harrison cam in and we thought the program was on the rise but soon discovered that it was a false hope.

Now Buffs basketball is as fun as I can remember (and I am way over 35.) Even if we take a step back this year in the win column we now have a program building on substance and the future looks bright.

Thanks Goose for your great work on these articles.

[tante]

do you honestly feel that Scott will be the 5 and Gordon the 4?

[jgisland]

do you honestly feel that Scott will be the 5 and Gordon the 4?

I do, when they played together in AAU ball scott played the 5 and gordon the 4. Not sure it really matters that much it Tad's system though.

[whatthebuff]

I'd like to think we will, but I don't. For some reason I'm getting a feeling that we struggle and I don't like it. Stupid brain.

It's been rough being a CU fan for several years now. Especially in football, I expect to be heart broken. Got to start winning and get out of this BS losing mindset.

I want to know more about Nate's speech, I never heard about that!

[mattrob]

I'd expect the regular season to go about like this year -right around 20 wins and firmly on the bubble. I think we'll be a little better team next year bit the conference as a whole should be improved and we won't sneak up on anyone next year.

[Buffnik]

We get a lot more talented next year.

Problem is that on paper we should have finished around 9th in the PAC-12 this year and teams we beat (I.e., UNLV in the Dance, Washington, Cal, Oregon, Arizona) should have whipped us.

Can Tad get a young team to max out its ability and gel the same way he's done with veteran teams the last 2 years? I wouldn't bet against him. 20+ wins and a better RPI that puts us on the bubble without the auto-bid.

[Quattro]

25 wins, top 3 regular season finish, dancing.

[mattrob]

25 wins, top 3 regular season finish, dancing.

I know you've said this before, but 25 wins is REALLY aggressive for a team this young. I get that we had 24 the last two years and you think we'll be better next year, but to get to 25 wins, one of three things HAS to happen:

1. Win 22 regular season games, go the Pac-12 championship, and win at least 1 tourney game
2. Win more than 20 regular season games, plus the Pac-12 championship
3. Win 20+ regular season games, make a run in the Pac-12 tourney and a Sweet 16 appearance

Those are big-time expectations for such a young team. I hope it happens, but I think that's more of a best-case scenario than anything next year. 2013 is the year we can really look to set the bar high.

EDIT: Or, I guess we could just win 25 regular season games, but that's no more likely than the others.

[FLounder]

40-0 guys book it.

[Quattro]

I know you've said this before, but 25 wins is REALLY aggressive for a team this young. I get that we had 24 the last two years and you think we'll be better next year, but to get to 25 wins, one of three things HAS to happen:

1. Win 22 regular season games, go the Pac-12 championship, and win at least 1 tourney game
2. Win more than 20 regular season games, plus the Pac-12 championship
3. Win 20+ regular season games, make a run in the Pac-12 tourney and a Sweet 16 appearance

Those are big-time expectations for such a young team. I hope it happens, but I think that's more of a best-case scenario than anything next year. 2013 is the year we can really look to set the bar high.

EDIT: Or, I guess we could just win 25 regular season games, but that's no more likely than the others.

20 regular season wins. Gonna win the Pac 12 tournament again to put us at 23 then win a few in the tournament for 25.