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Thread: Are Our Expectations for Jelly Scott Too High?

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    Are Our Expectations for Jelly Scott Too High?

    When people discuss reasons for excitement for the Buffs this upcoming season, usually one of the first things that's mentioned is that the team will have improved post play. Austin Dufault had a proud career as a Buff, and his 11 points and 4 rebounds a game will be missed. But many are intrigued by the potential that the new Buffs might have up front. While Wesley Gordon and Shane Harris-Tunks will provide quality bench minutes, and Xavier Johnson and Andre Roberson will get a bit of time in the post, the Buff that most are talking about is Josh Scott. The Monument native is coming in with high expectations as all four of the scouting services we use on AllBuffs had him as a top 65 recruit (ESPN had him at 36, Scout at 46, Rivals at 61 and 247 at 63). The question is, what are realistic expectations for Scott in his first year with the Buffs?

    I have been wondering this for the last few days, and yesterday asked openly on twitter what people expected -- and I was surprised to see the results. Most people were thinking he would score between 10 and 14 ppg and grab somewhere between 5 and 7 rebounds a game (the average of the projections on twitter was 12 ppg and 6 rpg). So I decided that I needed to see if we were being a little overzealous, and channeled my inner statnerd.

    In a statistical analysis that is in no way complete, and will be mocked openly by JG, I went through the last three recruiting classes and look at "Top 50" big men and what they went on to produce in their first season in college. Now I will be the first to admit that this is not a complete list, and that I probably missed a player or two. Not only that, but I didn't use any advanced numbers -- I just went straight with points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game and blocks per game. Some guys who had low numbers their first season went on to be first round draft picks (Thomas Robinson, Fab Melo and Myers Leonard). Some guys who had great numbers their first season ended up being disappointments overall (Tiny Gallon & Josh Smith). But these numbers can tell you what are realistic expectations for Scott's first season and the numbers may surprise you guys.

    First up, the big picture. These are the numbers that were averaged by all of the players over the three seasons:

    Year PPG RPG APG BPG
    2009 6.6 4.8 0.6 1.2
    2010 9.0 5.5 0.8 1.1
    2011 8.8 5.8 0.6 1.4

    So basically, if you're expecting Scott to put up better numbers than that, you're saying that he's going to be one of the top freshmen big men in the nation. But what about the projections saying he would score 12 points a game and pull down 6 boards? Well, if you look at the chart below, you'd see that would place him right with Christian Watford of Indiana (note: Watford is more of an undersized PF than I would ultimately prefer to have included in this study, but with his size he does play in the post so I included him). Watford was named Big 10 Freshman of the Year with those stats. So honestly, in my opinion, 12 & 6 might be a touch unreasonable for Scott when compared to previous players.

    Player PPG RPG APG BPG
    A. Davis (Kentucky) 14.2 10.4 1.3 4.7
    J. Sullinger (Ohio St) 17.2 10.2 1.2 0.5
    D. Cousins (Kentucky) 15.1 9.8 1.0 1.8
    T. Jones (Kentucky) 15.7 8.8 1.6 1.9
    C. Zeller (Indiana) 15.6 6.6 1.3 1.2
    T. Harris (Tennessee) 15.3 7.3 1.3 0.9
    T. Thompson (Texas) 13.1 7.8 1.3 2.4
    P. Jones (Baylor) 13.9 7.2 1.2 0.9
    D. Favors (Georgia Tech) 12.4 8.4 1.0 2.1
    K. Gallon (Oklahoma) 10.3 7.9 0.8 0.8
    A. Murray (La Salle) 12.2 6.6 1.1 2.3
    C. Watford (Indiana) 12.0 6.0 0.6 0.6
    J. Smith (UCLA) 10.9 6.3 0.6 1.0
    Z. Marshall (Akron) 10.4 5.4 0.8 2.8
    J. O'Bryant (LSU) 8.5 6.7 0.4 0.8
    A. Baru (Charleston) 7.8 6.3 0.6 0.7
    D. Powell (Stanford) 8.1 5.2 1.0 0.9
    D. Ferguson (Florida Intl) 7.1 4.8 0.6 1.5
    J. McAdoo (North Carolina) 6.1 3.9 0.3 0.3
    G. Dieng (Louisville) 5.7 4.4 0.7 1.9
    J. Henson (North Carolina) 5.7 4.4 0.9 1.6
    A. Oriakhi (UCONN) 5.0 6.6 0.4 1.6
    K. Wiltjer (Kentucky) 5.0 1.8 0.4 0.4
    K. Birch (Pitt) 4.4 5.0 0.0 1.9
    M. Yarou (Villanova) 4.5 3.7 0.6 1.0
    R. Buckner (Ole Miss) 4.1 4.5 0.2 2.0
    D. Taylor (Pitt) 4.1 3.7 0.1 0.6
    D. Orton (Kentucky) 3.4 3.3 0.4 1.4
    P. Young (Florida) 3.4 3.8 0.3 0.8
    W. Judge (Kansas St) 3.3 3.0 0.3 0.5
    M. Jennings (Clemson) 3.3 2.7 0.5 0.3
    T. Robinson (Kansas) 2.5 2.7 0.3 0.5
    A. Payne (Michigan St) 2.5 2.4 0.1 0.8
    F. Melo (Syracuse) 2.3 1.9 0.2 0.8
    B. Lane (UCLA) 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.4
    M. Leonard (Illinois) 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.4
    R. Kelly (Duke) 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.4


    Honestly, prior to looking over the numbers, Adam at Pachoops asked me what I thought was a solid expectation for Josh Scott. I told him 10 points, 8 boards, 1 assist and 2 blocked shots per game. I'm now thinking my projections are a bit high as well. I think that 8 points, 6 boards, 1 assist and 1 blocked shot might be more realistic for him. The thing he has going in his favor is that we aren't particularly deep up front. Unless Ben Mills emerges, our post rotation consists of Scott, Gordon and SHT with Dre and XJ filling in down there as well. He's going to get minutes. This is one thing that hurt some of the players at the bottom of the list (such as Robinson, Orton & Melo).

    Now, I do want to clarify one thing at this point -- I think Scott is going to be one of the best big men to ever play at CU when it's all said and done and there is a very legit chance he will leave early for the NBA. I just think that a lot of his development is going to come in between his freshman and sophomore years. Scott is by all accounts a gym rat who is constantly working, but it's a big jump going from Colorado 4A basketball to the Pac-12. His body is still growing.

    So what would be a fair expectation? Ultimately, I think it's somewhere around Dwight Powell of Stanford who averaged 8.1 points, 5.2 boards, 1 & 1 over 24 minutes a game his freshman year (which was good enough to make the Pac-12 All-Freshman Team) or Johnny O'Bryant of LSU who has 8.5 points, 6.7 boards and less than one assist and block a game in 21 minutes a game. If Scott can provide that, statistically, the Buffs should have a good chance to put their dancing shoes on. If he can meet the expectations I saw on twitter yesterday, we may need to start looking at hotel rooms for Sweet 16 locations.

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    Short answer to your question is yes they are likely too high, but we dont have a lot of experience with this basketball things so we've talked ourselves into him coming in and being a 12-8 or better guy for us.
    "Don't argue with an idiot, he'll drag you down to his level and beat you with experience."
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    What were his stats in Europe?
    "Right now Alec Burks is using and abusing this Texas defense"


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    Excellent analysis. Thank you. It seems our expectations may be a bit high. 8, 6, 1 and 1 would be fantastic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by dio View Post
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    What were his stats in Europe?
    17.4 ppg & 7.0 rpg.

    http://denver.sbnation.com/colorado-...012-josh-scott

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    Quote Originally Posted by Goose View Post
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    Shot 58.5 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line. 35 rebounds over the five games, 27 came on the offensive glass

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    no wonder our expectations are too high

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    If he could average 10 pts and 8 rebounds a game I would be ecstatic!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jgisland View Post
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    Shot 58.5 percent from the field and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line. 35 rebounds over the five games, 27 came on the offensive glass
    Probably best if we look at what he did in france vs the rest of the trip some of that competition was suspect.

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    After looking over Goose's extensive research are our expectations too high? Probably. But as Goose pointed out Dufault averaged 11 and 4 last year, Scott is essentially replacing Dufault and on day 1 (in 30 days, Wofford you are on notice) should be a better player than Dufault. Dufault was a solid player but was undersized and played out of position during his time at CU, Scott will have a learning curve and bumps in the road, but he is loaded with talent. Scott has shown that he can compete against top talent, I have heard that he isn't a great rebounder, but his numbers in Europe seem to prove otherwise.

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    Quote Originally Posted by absinthe View Post
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    Probably best if we look at what he did in france vs the rest of the trip some of that competition was suspect.
    First france game - 12 points on 6-of-9 shooting
    Second france game - 13 points and 10 rebounds

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    Quote Originally Posted by jgisland View Post
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    After looking over Goose's extensive research are our expectations too high? Probably. But as Goose pointed out Dufault averaged 11 and 4 last year, Scott is essentially replacing Dufault and on day 1 (in 30 days, Wofford you are on notice) should be a better player than Dufault. Dufault was a solid player but was undersized and played out of position during his time at CU, Scott will have a learning curve and bumps in the road, but he is loaded with talent. Scott has shown that he can compete against top talent, I have heard that he isn't a great rebounder, but his numbers in Europe seem to prove otherwise.
    The beauty is that with Dre still here this year, we don't need Scott to be a great or elite rebounder, we just need him to be good while learning to be better for next year when we are without the services of Mr. Roberson.
    "What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jgisland View Post
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    First france game - 12 points on 6-of-9 shooting
    Second france game - 13 points and 10 rebounds
    Ok that is more reassuring about his ability to produce. One area i do expect Scott to be better that Dufault right out of the gate is at the free-throw line. He shot a better percentage than Dufault last year in France and with an expanded post game vs that of Dufault he should be able to get to the line more often. HE wont have Dufault's range from three - but he should make that up at the line.

    For those interested in digging here is Dufault's CU bio:
    http://www.cubuffs.com/ViewArticle.d...ATCLID=1573140

    Notice how close the two are in weight - looking at them that surprised me.
    http://www.cubuffs.com/ViewArticle.d...&Q_SEASON=2012

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    I honestly think he will be above 10 pts per game. Yesterday on Twitter I believe I posted the high end of the projections (14 and 6). Ironic considering I was one of his biggest doubters when we signed him. Europe was a bit of a revelation for me. I think Scott will score points for these reasons:

    1. Offensive skill set. He's got a complete set, which is extremely rare in big men coming OUT of college, much less coming in. This will allow him to make up for his strength deficiency. Even if you muscle him out of position, he can still score despite his limited athleticism because he can flow around the resisitance. He got named Jelly for a reason!

    2. Offensive rebounding. Although he's not a great rebounder due to a lack of strength and overall athleticism, the dude just has a nose for finding the ball on the offensive end. He's gonna get a lot of ORB's to make up for his lack on the defensive end.

    3. Guard/Wing play. He's gonna benefit from defenses really having to key on the Mayor, Ski, and XY/Jenkins. At least, early on (until they key on him )

    However, he's gonna get killed by stronger posts defensively. Think Ben Mills style. That is where he's gonna hurt us this year.
    Goose - "Snow's right. Listen to him."


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    Freshman bigs are spooky. They're often projected or rated highly because they're physical specimens with the age old meaningless line of "up side."

    Ultimately, these guys are so hard to project because college is the first time they're playing against other true bigs. How many 6'10" guys were on your HS basketball team?

    What Goose is showing us is that these guys need time to learn. Scroll over that list and you see a lot of guys who in year 2 or 3 are projected or selected draft picks (McAdoo, Henson, Young, Robinson, Zeller). They learn to foul less and stay on the floor. They learn to play the game as genetics intended them to.

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