Results 1 to 14 of 14

Thread: Oklahoma St - Statistical Preview

  1. #1
    Numbers never lie jgisland's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Interwebs
    Posts
    2,152
    Blog Entries
    3

    Oklahoma St - Statistical Preview

    There have been some big games this year – Baylor, Harvard and Kansas but Oklahoma St may be the ultimate barometer on this season. Kansas was a statement game; some have called it a “program win”. And it was, I’m not going to try to discount that win, but while CU is extremely young (337th in KenPom’s ratings) there are only 14 teams that are less experienced than CU, one of those fourteen is Kansas (349th). So when we all turned the CEC into a true CU “home arena” instead of Allen Fieldhouse West, KU’s young guys may have been a little intimidated by the bright lights and the blackout. What does any of this have to do with Oklahoma State? Well, while Oklahoma St is not exactly a team of seasoned veterans (they have 1 Sr. on the roster who gets minutes) Marcus Smart isn’t going to be afraid of the bright lights of Vegas, he’s a guy who would start on more than a handful of NBA rosters. So this is why I consider this game the “real” barometer for CU, can they win against a talented top tier team on a neutral court when everybody is watching? Even if CU doesn’t win, making this a competitive game will be a solid measuring stick as CU heads into conference play.

    Now into the numbers –

    Colorado gets to the line a lot (5th highest rate) in large part because they take the ball to the rack 6% more than average (44.1% of CU shots come at the rim). This may prove to be an interesting dynamic in the game. Oklahoma St. is not a team you’d consider tall, (241st in effective height) and they don’t have a guy on their roster that plays that’s taller than 6-8, but somehow they block the 5th most amount of shots at the rim (22.4%). What’s even more amazing is that there isn’t one guy blocking all of these shots, Oklahoma St spreads the blocks at the rim over 6 people and they do so without sending their opponents to the line, they’re below average in that department. They also boast the 29th best defensive FG% at the rim.


    What to watch? What Oklahoma St. may lack in size, it certainly does not seem to be affecting their interior defense, can CU’s size advantage translate into a tangible advantage?

    This is a match-up of two of the top teams in terms of “Extra Scoring Chances per Game” (calculated as Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Turnovers - Opponent Offensive Rebounds – Turnovers). CU is 17th at 5.9 per game while Oklahoma St is 19th at 5.8 per game. CU’s number is probably artificially inflated a bit – CU is #1 in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass, but are they really? A handful of CU opponents didn’t even attempt to grab offensive boards in an attempt to limit CU’s transition opportunities. Oklahoma St. does a pretty good job of limiting transition opportunities while also doing a decent job on the offensive glass. Oklahoma St. doesn’t appear to be a team that’s going to retreat back on defense in an attempt to limit CU’s transition opportunities, they’ve got the athleticism to hit the boards while being able to get back on defense.

    What to watch? Can CU keep Oklahoma St. off the offensive boards and get out on the break?

    Half-court offense, will CU be able to score in the half-court? Oklahoma St’s defense is…..good. 15th overall – they force turnovers, they block shots, and teams shoot poorly from mid-range and at the rim against them. They are in the top 10% in nearly every defensive category. Yes their defense is….. good.


    What to watch: Can CU score in the half court against an elite balanced defense?

    CU’s is defense is as always the hallmark of a Tad Boyle team, 18th overall. But as I stated before, this is probably slightly inflated due to CU’s opponents forgoing offensive rebounds, making CU’s rebounding numbers skewed and making the defense on paper look a little better than it may actually be. So how does CU stop Oklahoma St and Marcus Smart? I’m guessing waves upon waves of players. You’ve most likely got to give Dinwiddie the first crack on Smart. But Smart is big and strong, XJ may get a crack, Hopkins could get a go on him and do we see the zone again?



    What to watch: Who guards Smart? What defensive schemes does Tad throw out there?

    How did Memphis beat Oklahoma St? In the first game of the season Oklahoma St. got out in transition and subsequently took 42.6% of their shots at the rim, it also didn’t hurt that Memphis couldn’t hit an outside shot to save their lives (23.1% from three). In the second game Memphis was able to limit Oklahoma St’s transition opportunities and forced them into taking 42.3% of their shots from mid-range. CU’s going to have to do something similar, Oklahoma St. is fast and athletic, so CU’s going to have to limit Oklahoma St’s transition opportunities and shots at the rim, these are two things CU does pretty well. They are 52nd in opponent’s % of shots at the rim and 37th in % of opponent’s initial shots that come in transition.

    What to watch? Can CU force Oklahoma St into a half-court offense and prevent them from getting good looks at the rim?

  2. #2
    Hoops Moderator Goose's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    7,502
    Blog Entries
    23
    First off, I gotta think Tad goes with the same defense he threw at Wiggins when it comes to Smart. I think we go J-Hop on him. When he gets his two fouls, we throw out Fletch. Then King. Just keep the waves going. In the crunch time, we'll see Spencer or XJ on him (probably Spencer, as we're going to need XJ down low). But just send lots of looks his way.

    I think we give up more offensive rebounds than we have previously, but we still put up solid numbers. They're going to crash the boards, but not as hard as they normally do. We won't see full-Wyoming where everyone runs back immediately, but they're going to back off a touch. They know they have the advantage in halfcourt D. So they'll try to slow us down there.

    Ultimately, I think it comes down to our O vs their D in the halfcourt. If we can be good, we win the game. If they shut us down, we lose.

  3. #3
    Moderator Buffnik's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    A van down by the river
    Posts
    53,293
    Blog Entries
    40
    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.


    Only Irish coffee provides in a single glass all four essential food groups: alcohol, caffeine, sugar and fat. - Alex Levine

  4. #4
    Numbers never lie jgisland's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Interwebs
    Posts
    2,152
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
    That is pretty much the blue print for success

  5. #5
    Colorado Buffaloes Fan Zachsquatch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Boulder
    Posts
    60
    I am curious (and this may just be a qualitative stat) as to what the general breakdown of their at the rim defense is, when comparing transition versus half-court set shots.

    Basically, what's the probability of Jelly rollin? Would love a monster game from him.

  6. #6
    Moderator Buffnik's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    A van down by the river
    Posts
    53,293
    Blog Entries
    40
    Quote Originally Posted by Zachsquatch View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I am curious (and this may just be a qualitative stat) as to what the general breakdown of their at the rim defense is, when comparing transition versus half-court set shots.

    Basically, what's the probability of Jelly rollin? Would love a monster game from him.
    I'm worried about how the refs call things on the interior. If they let defenders get slap happy in the post like we've seen some nights, that's big advantage to OSU. But if they call it tight, I think that's big advantage CU.

  7. #7
    Hoops Moderator Goose's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    7,502
    Blog Entries
    23
    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I'm worried about how the refs call things on the interior. If they let defenders get slap happy in the post like we've seen some nights, that's big advantage to OSU. But if they call it tight, I think that's big advantage CU.
    OSU has pretty good FT defense, but not nearly as good as Kansas', so that helps.

  8. #8
    Club Member tante's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    brewing
    Posts
    22,276
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
    only if they are open right?

  9. #9
    Club Member F.I.M.'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Location
    State of Lament
    Posts
    3,174
    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
    True, and I also think we win this game by keeping them under 49.5% from the field.

  10. #10
    Numbers never lie jgisland's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Interwebs
    Posts
    2,152
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by tante View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    only if they are open right?
    fadeaway

  11. #11
    Numbers never lie jgisland's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Interwebs
    Posts
    2,152
    Blog Entries
    3
    Quote Originally Posted by Zachsquatch View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I am curious (and this may just be a qualitative stat) as to what the general breakdown of their at the rim defense is, when comparing transition versus half-court set shots.

    Basically, what's the probability of Jelly rollin? Would love a monster game from him.

    Oklahoma St Defense
    Category FGA FG% at rim
    Transition 119 54.10%
    Non-Transition 462 49.40%
    30 Seconds into Possession 34 57.10%
    Putbacks 41 70.40%

    The 30 seconds into the possession % is surprising to me, you'd think taking a team that deep into the shot clock would mean they're going to put up something ugly.

  12. #12
    Colorado Buffaloes Fan Zachsquatch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    Boulder
    Posts
    60
    Quote Originally Posted by jgisland View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Oklahoma St Defense
    Category FGA FG% at rim
    Transition 119 54.10%
    Non-Transition 462 49.40%
    30 Seconds into Possession 34 57.10%
    Putbacks 41 70.40%

    The 30 seconds into the possession % is surprising to me, you'd think taking a team that deep into the shot clock would mean they're going to put up something ugly.
    Thanks for the stats. As others have said, this is a great matchup. CU has weapons to match the boys, comes down to defense.

    Seems like Spencer either takes it to the rack right away or late in the clock, let's hope those FG% translate nicely. Way too excited for this, will be watching at Blake Street with a rowdy group of Buffs

  13. #13
    Buffs open at 6pt underdogs. That line is probably gonna move.

  14. #14

Visitors found this page by searching for:

Nobody landed on this page from a search engine, yet!
SEO Blog

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •