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Thread: Oklahoma St - Statistical Preview

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    Oklahoma St - Statistical Preview

    There have been some big games this year Ė Baylor, Harvard and Kansas but Oklahoma St may be the ultimate barometer on this season. Kansas was a statement game; some have called it a ďprogram winĒ. And it was, Iím not going to try to discount that win, but while CU is extremely young (337th in KenPomís ratings) there are only 14 teams that are less experienced than CU, one of those fourteen is Kansas (349th). So when we all turned the CEC into a true CU ďhome arenaĒ instead of Allen Fieldhouse West, KUís young guys may have been a little intimidated by the bright lights and the blackout. What does any of this have to do with Oklahoma State? Well, while Oklahoma St is not exactly a team of seasoned veterans (they have 1 Sr. on the roster who gets minutes) Marcus Smart isnít going to be afraid of the bright lights of Vegas, heís a guy who would start on more than a handful of NBA rosters. So this is why I consider this game the ďrealĒ barometer for CU, can they win against a talented top tier team on a neutral court when everybody is watching? Even if CU doesnít win, making this a competitive game will be a solid measuring stick as CU heads into conference play.

    Now into the numbers Ė

    Colorado gets to the line a lot (5th highest rate) in large part because they take the ball to the rack 6% more than average (44.1% of CU shots come at the rim). This may prove to be an interesting dynamic in the game. Oklahoma St. is not a team youíd consider tall, (241st in effective height) and they donít have a guy on their roster that plays thatís taller than 6-8, but somehow they block the 5th most amount of shots at the rim (22.4%). Whatís even more amazing is that there isnít one guy blocking all of these shots, Oklahoma St spreads the blocks at the rim over 6 people and they do so without sending their opponents to the line, theyíre below average in that department. They also boast the 29th best defensive FG% at the rim.


    What to watch? What Oklahoma St. may lack in size, it certainly does not seem to be affecting their interior defense, can CUís size advantage translate into a tangible advantage?

    This is a match-up of two of the top teams in terms of ďExtra Scoring Chances per GameĒ (calculated as Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Turnovers - Opponent Offensive Rebounds Ė Turnovers). CU is 17th at 5.9 per game while Oklahoma St is 19th at 5.8 per game. CUís number is probably artificially inflated a bit Ė CU is #1 in keeping opponents off of the offensive glass, but are they really? A handful of CU opponents didnít even attempt to grab offensive boards in an attempt to limit CUís transition opportunities. Oklahoma St. does a pretty good job of limiting transition opportunities while also doing a decent job on the offensive glass. Oklahoma St. doesnít appear to be a team thatís going to retreat back on defense in an attempt to limit CUís transition opportunities, theyíve got the athleticism to hit the boards while being able to get back on defense.

    What to watch? Can CU keep Oklahoma St. off the offensive boards and get out on the break?

    Half-court offense, will CU be able to score in the half-court? Oklahoma Stís defense isÖ..good. 15th overall Ė they force turnovers, they block shots, and teams shoot poorly from mid-range and at the rim against them. They are in the top 10% in nearly every defensive category. Yes their defense isÖ.. good.


    What to watch: Can CU score in the half court against an elite balanced defense?

    CUís is defense is as always the hallmark of a Tad Boyle team, 18th overall. But as I stated before, this is probably slightly inflated due to CUís opponents forgoing offensive rebounds, making CUís rebounding numbers skewed and making the defense on paper look a little better than it may actually be. So how does CU stop Oklahoma St and Marcus Smart? Iím guessing waves upon waves of players. Youíve most likely got to give Dinwiddie the first crack on Smart. But Smart is big and strong, XJ may get a crack, Hopkins could get a go on him and do we see the zone again?



    What to watch: Who guards Smart? What defensive schemes does Tad throw out there?

    How did Memphis beat Oklahoma St? In the first game of the season Oklahoma St. got out in transition and subsequently took 42.6% of their shots at the rim, it also didnít hurt that Memphis couldnít hit an outside shot to save their lives (23.1% from three). In the second game Memphis was able to limit Oklahoma Stís transition opportunities and forced them into taking 42.3% of their shots from mid-range. CUís going to have to do something similar, Oklahoma St. is fast and athletic, so CUís going to have to limit Oklahoma Stís transition opportunities and shots at the rim, these are two things CU does pretty well. They are 52nd in opponentís % of shots at the rim and 37th in % of opponentís initial shots that come in transition.

    What to watch? Can CU force Oklahoma St into a half-court offense and prevent them from getting good looks at the rim?

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    First off, I gotta think Tad goes with the same defense he threw at Wiggins when it comes to Smart. I think we go J-Hop on him. When he gets his two fouls, we throw out Fletch. Then King. Just keep the waves going. In the crunch time, we'll see Spencer or XJ on him (probably Spencer, as we're going to need XJ down low). But just send lots of looks his way.

    I think we give up more offensive rebounds than we have previously, but we still put up solid numbers. They're going to crash the boards, but not as hard as they normally do. We won't see full-Wyoming where everyone runs back immediately, but they're going to back off a touch. They know they have the advantage in halfcourt D. So they'll try to slow us down there.

    Ultimately, I think it comes down to our O vs their D in the halfcourt. If we can be good, we win the game. If they shut us down, we lose.

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    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
    "Here's to the few who forgive what you do, and the fewer who don't even care." - Leonard Cohen

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
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    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
    That is pretty much the blue print for success

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    I am curious (and this may just be a qualitative stat) as to what the general breakdown of their at the rim defense is, when comparing transition versus half-court set shots.

    Basically, what's the probability of Jelly rollin? Would love a monster game from him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zachsquatch View Post
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    I am curious (and this may just be a qualitative stat) as to what the general breakdown of their at the rim defense is, when comparing transition versus half-court set shots.

    Basically, what's the probability of Jelly rollin? Would love a monster game from him.
    I'm worried about how the refs call things on the interior. If they let defenders get slap happy in the post like we've seen some nights, that's big advantage to OSU. But if they call it tight, I think that's big advantage CU.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
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    I'm worried about how the refs call things on the interior. If they let defenders get slap happy in the post like we've seen some nights, that's big advantage to OSU. But if they call it tight, I think that's big advantage CU.
    OSU has pretty good FT defense, but not nearly as good as Kansas', so that helps.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
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    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
    only if they are open right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Buffnik View Post
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    I think CU wins this game by attacking the mid-range and knocking down a bunch of 12-18 ft jumpers.
    True, and I also think we win this game by keeping them under 49.5% from the field.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tante View Post
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    only if they are open right?
    fadeaway

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zachsquatch View Post
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    I am curious (and this may just be a qualitative stat) as to what the general breakdown of their at the rim defense is, when comparing transition versus half-court set shots.

    Basically, what's the probability of Jelly rollin? Would love a monster game from him.

    Oklahoma St Defense
    Category FGA FG% at rim
    Transition 119 54.10%
    Non-Transition 462 49.40%
    30 Seconds into Possession 34 57.10%
    Putbacks 41 70.40%

    The 30 seconds into the possession % is surprising to me, you'd think taking a team that deep into the shot clock would mean they're going to put up something ugly.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jgisland View Post
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    Oklahoma St Defense
    Category FGA FG% at rim
    Transition 119 54.10%
    Non-Transition 462 49.40%
    30 Seconds into Possession 34 57.10%
    Putbacks 41 70.40%

    The 30 seconds into the possession % is surprising to me, you'd think taking a team that deep into the shot clock would mean they're going to put up something ugly.
    Thanks for the stats. As others have said, this is a great matchup. CU has weapons to match the boys, comes down to defense.

    Seems like Spencer either takes it to the rack right away or late in the clock, let's hope those FG% translate nicely. Way too excited for this, will be watching at Blake Street with a rowdy group of Buffs

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    Buffs open at 6pt underdogs. That line is probably gonna move.

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