First off, I gotta think Tad goes with the same defense he threw at Wiggins when it comes to Smart. I think we go J-Hop on him. When he gets his two fouls, we throw out Fletch. Then King. Just keep the waves going. In the crunch time, we'll see Spencer or XJ on him (probably Spencer, as we're going to need XJ down low). But just send lots of looks his way.
I think we give up more offensive rebounds than we have previously, but we still put up solid numbers. They're going to crash the boards, but not as hard as they normally do. We won't see full-Wyoming where everyone runs back immediately, but they're going to back off a touch. They know they have the advantage in halfcourt D. So they'll try to slow us down there.
Ultimately, I think it comes down to our O vs their D in the halfcourt. If we can be good, we win the game. If they shut us down, we lose.