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2012-13 Bubble Watch

GT wins. UVA falls to 15-6 (5-3). Hoos couldn't afford anymore bad losses, this is about all she wrote for UVA's Dance hopes
 
Virginia falls at Georgia Tech.

That really hurts their Dance chances. Equivalent to our loss at Utah.
 
Buffnik said:
Virginia falls at Georgia Tech.

That really hurts their Dance chances. Equivalent to our loss at Utah.
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except they already had bad losses and a **** RPI. They'll have their chances for big wins, but like us they're young and inconsistent despite lots of talent
 
Wisconsin wins at Illinois.

I don't quite believe in Wisconsin yet, but I'm starting to come around. Love their frontcourt.
 
We've got some good games on Monday as basketball finally has the sports world to itself following the Superbowl.

Notre Dame @ Syracuse (5pm, ESPN)
Oklahoma @ Iowa State (5pm, ESPNU)
Seton Hall @ Pittsburgh (7pm, ESPN)
 
CVilleBuff said:
except they already had bad losses and a **** RPI. They'll have their chances for big wins, but like us they're young and inconsistent despite lots of talent
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Virginia's RPI will probably slip to the upper 90s. Ouch. They've been favored to win in each of their 6 losses, very strange year for the Hoos. Their most likely regular season finish is 20-11 (10-8). That's not going to do it for them. They'd need to do things like beat Duke in Charlottesville to have a chance.
 
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maybe firing doc sadler wasn't such a good idea....maybe firing bruce weber wasn't such a good idea....


on the one hand, NU has never won an NCAA game....bring back Danny Nee? on the other hand, Weber made the national title game....that's not bad. with the other IU back playing good...can Illinois really stand to gamble. i like Crean. would love to see a game at Assembly Hall.
 
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Mick Ronson said:
i keep forgetting Nebraska plays basketball these days.
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Miles has his work cut out for him. Team with 1 NCAA Tournament win in their entire history trying to compete in a brutal B1G. Nebraska's only way to ever be remotely effective is to take the "Wisconsin" route, IMO.
 
We are coming into the time of the season that starts clarifying the Tournament selection. CU needs to climb into the top half of the conference by the end of the regular season. We have 5 home games left and 4 road games and then the conference tourney. Go 5-0 at home and 2-2 on the road and I think we are in good shape but I kind of doubt that we go 5-0 at home and 2-2 on the road. Oregon, Arizona and Arizona St. at home are going to be tough to beat all 3.

I have a feeling we are going to be a bubble team and maybe not that if we don't close out strong. Losing to Utah hurt.
 
We are just a terrible road team, no doubt about it. I hope it is just youth and lack of leadership. Our only two road wins are against HORRIBLE offensively challenged teams. Fresno and Wash State are in the bottom 1/3 of scoring. Utah was missing Loveridge, and they looked dominant for 32 minutes of that game against all of our starters. Pathetic effort and coaching with our talent level. ALso, it wasn't like they were shooting lights out either. We went 20 minutes without scoring against UTAH.

Tad needs to change something about his offense on the road. Force Ski to take only 6-8 shots and distribute the ball more. Tell Dinwiddie/Scott/Johnson be more assertive on offense and get Ski's shots. Make sure Tunks NEVER touches the ball on offense. He just neds to use his big body to set picks and box out guys. That's it.

Our guys seem to stand around too much and turnover the ball a high clip. We need to change something up because I don't see us winning another road game this year if we can't break the 55 point barrier on the road no matter how good we play defensively.

Actually, our defense has been great on the road minus the Kansas game, but we aren't going to win many games when we go 10-20 minutes without scoring.

I could actually see us go 5-0 at home and 0-4 on the road. Our offense is fine at home because we got the calls, and other teams bigs get in foul trouble.

As for the road, I have zero confidence we can win ANY road game against a team that has a mediocre or above offense because we can't score at all, so our defensive effort doesn't make a difference.

Based on that, we need to win the conference tourney again because we will be a bubble team at best, and I don't trust the committee to let us in based on what happened in 2010. If we can magically win 2 road games and sweep at home, I think we are in the tourney for sure.
 
CU's biggest problem, IMO, is lack of depth. They cannot spell guys for very long and the season at this point in time is starting to grind on people. A player like Josh Scott has already played more minutes this season than he every did in a HS season...sometimes those freshmen start hitting a wall because they are not use to the length of the season. CU does not have the depth to overcome injury of foul trouble.
 
BlackNGold said:
CU's biggest problem, IMO, is lack of depth. They cannot spell guys for very long and the season at this point in time is starting to grind on people. A player like Josh Scott has already played more minutes this season than he every did in a HS season...sometimes those freshmen start hitting a wall because they are not use to the length of the season. CU does not have the depth to overcome injury of foul trouble.
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What pisses me off is they had a whole week to prepare for the game. It was not like were coming off a road OT game on Thursday.
 
tante said:
What pisses me off is they had a whole week to prepare for the game. It was not like were coming off a road OT game on Thursday.
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The lack of bench production is a major issue, but you're right that "fatigue" just doesn't work when we had the entire week off. All they had to do was focus, and go beat a pathetic team without their best player in the most non-hostile environment you'll ever find on the road.
 
CVilleBuff said:
The lack of bench production is a major issue, but you're right that "fatigue" just doesn't work when we had the entire week off. All they had to do was focus, and go beat a pathetic team without their best player in the most non-hostile environment you'll ever find on the road.
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Tad also gave the team a couple days off that week. Fatigue was not the issue. They just weren't mentally into it. They lost focus with the time off. It's a delicate balance for Tad this year with a young team and a short bench. Can't have them hit the wall but also can't trust them to take care of business on their own the way you can with a veteran squad.
 
tante said:
What pisses me off is they had a whole week to prepare for the game. It was not like were coming off a road OT game on Thursday.
Click to expand...

I am not talking about one game I am talking about this point in the season it is going to start coming into play and will probably impact on how the team finishes. At this time of year, teams start playing more physical...that works against the Buffs in a lot of ways, IMO.
 
Buffnik said:
Tad also gave the team a couple days off that week. Fatigue was not the issue. They just weren't mentally into it. They lost focus with the time off. It's a delicate balance for Tad this year with a young team and a short bench. Can't have them hit the wall but also can't trust them to take care of business on their own the way you can with a veteran squad.
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When Dre called them a "bottom feeder" in the article before the game I got a sick feeling in my stomach.
 
Based on Lunardi's updated S-Curve tourney projections after Saturday, Buffs are a 10-seed:

Teams with tourney odds of 75 percent or better through games of Feb. 2.

"Last Four In" (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio) [teams 1-37 on the S-Curve].
Lowest four automatic bids (would play March 19-20 in Dayton, Ohio) [teams 46-49 on the S-Curve].
"First Four Out" (teams 69-72 on the S-Curve).
"Next Four Out" (teams 73-76 on the S-Curve).

The Full S-Curve

ALL CAPS: conference leader (teams)

1-FLORIDA2-INDIANA3-Duke4-Michigan
8-MIAMI (FL)7-GONZAGA6-Arizona5-KANSAS
9-Syracuse10-Louisville11-Michigan St12-Ohio State
16-MARQUETTE15-Butler14-Cincinnati13-NEW MEXICO
17-OREGON18-Minnesota19-CREIGHTON20-Kansas State
24-Georgetown23-Pittsburgh22-Wichita State21-NC State
25-Ucla26-Unlv27-San Diego St.28-VCU
32-Missouri31-Ole Miss30-Oklahoma St.29-Notre Dame
33-Wisconsin34-Colorado St.35-Oklahoma36-Kentucky
40-Baylor39-Iowa State38-Colorado37-North Carolina
41-BELMONT42-Memphis43-MIDDLE TENN44-La Salle
48-Illinois47-Arizona St.46-St. Mary's45-Saint Louis
49-Temple50-SO. MISS51-BUCKNELL52-AKRON
56-VALPARAISO55-S.F. AUSTIN54-S. DAKOTA ST.53-LA. TECH
57-STONY BROOK58-HARVARD59-DAVIDSON60-NIAGARA
64-MONTANA63-LONG BEACH62-FGCU61-NORTHEASTERN
65-BRYANT66-CHAS. SOUTH.67-SOUTHERN U.68-NORFOLK ST.
72-Brigham Young71-Virginia70-Villanova69-Indiana St.
73-Maryland74-Alabama75-St. John's76-Washington

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...ogy-latest-bracket-updates-college-basketball
 
As a reminder on the above, this did not include Sunday's results.

Villanova's loss to Providence was a killer for a team on the "First 4 Out" line.

Illinois's loss to Wisconsin is a major blow for a team in the "First 4 In" group.

Virginia's loss to Georgia Tech was a killer for a team on the "First 4 Out" line.

In 10 minutes, we've got a couple huge tipoffs with Notre Dame @ Syracuse and Oklahoma @ Iowa State.
 
Iowa State taking a dump on Oklahoma in Ames. Sooners were in better shape than Iowa State heading into this despite the almost identical overall and conference records.

Syracuse pulling away from Notre Dame. Domers are still in great shape for the Dance though.
 
Iowa State defeats Oklahoma 83-64 in Ames. Cyclones improve to 16-6 (6-3), Sooners fall to 14-7 (5-4).

Oklahoma has a very healthy RPI (entered the game tonight 23rd) so they're still in decent shape.

Iowa State's RPI was 36th. They needed this win, crucial for them.


Syracuse defeated Notre Dame 63-47 in the Dome. Notre Dame falls to 18-5 (6-4). Their RPI entering tonight was 40th. They've still got to play Louisville twice, among others.
 
Tuesday doesn't look like much unless some major upsets happen.

Wake Forest is at North Carolina, which can't afford bad losses.
Villanova is at DePaul. Nova is barely in the bubble conversation and this would completely ruin any realistic chance for them.
Akron hosts Central Michigan. Akron should win the MAC, but they might be good enough to earn an at-large if they lose in the conf tourney.
Wichita State is at S Illinois. Shockers have been struggling lately and this would be a huge blow if they lost.
Florida State is at Georgia Tech. Seminoles have to start their run here or they can forget about the Dance.
Kentucky hosts South Carolina. If Kentucky drops this one, it would raise some serious questions.

Probably no upsets from the above, but you never know.

I'll just be watching #10 Ohio State at #3 Michigan. Great rivalry game between a couple excellent teams.
 
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