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2012-13 Pac-12 Standings

With the logjam in the standings, it's likely that multiple seeding spots may me determined by tiebreakers this season, so I revisited Buffnik's post from last season:

http://www.allbuffs.com/showthread.php/72920-Tiebreakers-for-1-Seed-in-Pac-12-Tournament

So, we look pretty good against everyone except our most likely competitors for the 3/4 seeds, UCLA and Cal. UCLA has the head-to-head against us and Cal is 2-0 against Arizona and Oregon (but still has OR on the road, while we get them in the keg). That game in Berkeley on March 2 is looking a whole lot bigger than it did a couple weeks ago...
 
scoob, I don't even want to try figuring out all the tiebreakers.

The only one we can be sure of right now is that we don't want to be tied with UCLA since they're 1-0 against us. If we tie with them, we're going to need a 3- or 4-way tie. Ideally, we beat Oregon at home and have the 2-0 there so that can play into the tiebreaker math in our favor.

Welcome.
 
Buffnik said:
scoob, I don't even want to try figuring out all the tiebreakers.

The only one we can be sure of right now is that we don't want to be tied with UCLA since they're 1-0 against us. If we tie with them, we're going to need a 3- or 4-way tie. Ideally, we beat Oregon at home and have the 2-0 there so that can play into the tiebreaker math in our favor.

Welcome.
Click to expand...

Ouch. How's about we just plan on winning the tournament again this year to avoid doing math?
 
Updated the women's standings.

Cal and Stanford continue to separate.

Utah making a move up the standings while USC keeps dropping.

Washington/Colorado for the 4-seed and the possibility of Utah running the table to get the 6-seed are the ones to watch. I'd love to see the Utes finish up at 19-10. Outside shot that could put another Pac-12 team in the Dance and it would definitely be a nice RPI boost for the Buffs.
 
Buffnik said:
Updated the women's standings.

Cal and Stanford continue to separate.

Utah making a move up the standings while USC keeps dropping.

Washington/Colorado for the 4-seed and the possibility of Utah running the table to get the 6-seed are the ones to watch. I'd love to see the Utes finish up at 19-10. Outside shot that could put another Pac-12 team in the Dance and it would definitely be a nice RPI boost for the Buffs.
Click to expand...

Utah could do us a MAJOR favor knocking off Washington in SLC. Without that, we'll be facing a 12-3 Washington team in Boulder while we sit 10-5. Granted, Washington's last two games are Stanford and Cal, so we should be passing them at the very end with CU finishing 13-5 and Washington 12-6, but Utah could make us breathe a lot easier if they pulled the upset. Regardless of how favorable schedules may be, it's a tall task to catch a team when you're 2 games behind with 3 games remaining.

We'll need to be very careful against Wazzu. There's going to be such a major focus on the Washington game, that we need to make sure we aren't caught napping against a Cougar squad that is competitive in the Pac, currently sitting 6-7 and just one spot below CU.
 
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These next two days will go a long ways toward separating the men's side too. With ASU vs CU, UCLA at Stanford and USC at Cal, 3 of the top 8 are guaranteed to lose this weekend. Let's hope Stanford can give us a little help.
 
Standings for the Men & Women updated.

Huge week for the Women. Got to get past the Wazzu trap game and then it's Washington to likely decide the 4-seed and 1st round bye.

Men need to take care of business against Utah and then see what happens to the rest of the league as they all play 2 games this week except for UCLA/USC.
 
Men's standings updated after Thursday, 2/21, games.

Buffs are 2 games out of 1st place. We own the tiebreakers against Oregon and Cal above us with a split against Zona. Immediately below us, we own the tiebreakers against USC and Stanford.

Above us, UCLA and Arizona State own the tiebreakers against us.

We're off this weekend, but here are the other conference games:

Saturday
Arizona hosts Washington State
Oregon hosts Stanford
Arizona State hosts Washington
Oregon State hosts Cal

Sunday
USC hosts UCLA
 
CVilleBuff said:
Bad matchup aside, crushing the Scum Devils' Big Dance hopes would be a fitting last laugh.
Click to expand...
Yep. It would be awesome to beat them, but to be honest to a lesser extent they remind me of last year's stanford. Just bad match ups but it would be great finish their hopes of a bid.
 
FightCu1414 said:
Yep. It would be awesome to beat them, but to be honest to a lesser extent they remind me of last year's stanford. Just bad match ups but it would be great finish their hopes of a bid.
Click to expand...

I would have to assume we won't get incompetent refs in the pac12 tourney.
 
Buffnik said:
Men
#12 Arizona11-4*--23-4*
#23 Oregon11-4--22-6
UCLA10-4.520-7
California10-5118-9
Arizona State9-6220-8
Colorado8-6*2.518-8*
USC7-73.512-15
Stanford7-8416-12
Washington7-8415-13
Utah3-117.511-15
Oregon State3-12813-15
Washington State2-13911-17

Women
#4 Stanford15-1--26-2
#6 California15-1--25-2
#17 UCLA12-4321-6
#20 Colorado11-5422-5
Washington11-5419-8
Utah7-9816-11
Washington State6-10910-17
Arizona State5-111013-15
USC5-11108-19
Arizona4-121112-15
Oregon State3-13129-19
Oregon2-14134-24
Click to expand...

It's pretty clear heading into the final week of the regular season for the women, at least for the top 6 seeds and the 11/12 seeds. I'm going to just go ahead and make some guesses on 6-10 based on remaining games and head-to-head results.

Regarding the top seed, and assuming Stanford and Cal both win their final 2 games, Stanford gets the tiebreaker based on better winning % against D1 opponents. (Very close, but Stanford played 1 more game than Cal did and they both had 2 losses.)

1. Stanford
2. Cal
3. UCLA
4. Colorado
5. Washington
6. Utah
7. Arizona State
8. Washington State
9. USC
10. Arizona
11. Oregon State
12. Oregon

Round 1:
5 Washington vs 12 Oregon
6 Utah vs 11 Oregon State
7 Arizona State vs 10 Arizona
8 Washington State vs 9 USC

Round 2:
1 Stanford vs 8/9
2 Cal vs 7/10
3 UCLA vs 6/11
4 Colorado vs 5/12

Tiebreaker rules for Women's tournament seeding: http://championships.pac-12.com/womens-basketball/files/2013/01/WBB-Tiebreaker.pdf

For the Men, it's a lot cloudier.

I'm not even going to try. The only thing I'm sure of is that if the Buffs win their last 4 games then they'll end up with the 4-seed at worst and 2-seed at best. 2-seed would happen if we ended up tied with Oregon and UCLA. In that case, our 2-1 against them would get us to #2. Basically, we just need to win.

If someone wants to try to start figuring out all those variables, I'll tip my hat and question your sanity. :smile2:

Tiebreaker rules for Men's tournament seeding: http://championships.pac-12.com/mens-basketball/files/2013/01/Tiebreaker.pdf
 
Its crazy that we are still in the hunt for the #1. Just need a couple teams to lose, and UCLA to lose the rest of theirs lol. 2 Games back with 3 games left.

Oregon Schedule

vs OSU
@CU
@Utah

Arizona Schedule

@UCLA
ASU

UCLA Schedule

UofA
@WSU
@UW

California Schedule

UTAH
CU
@Furd
 
Okay I think I have this straight, if you see an error let me know and I will correct:

Oregon:
Oregon State: 82%
@Colorado 38%
@Utah 69%
Predicted W-L: 3-1
Predicted Finish: 13-5


UCLA:
Arizona: 50%
@Washington St: 65%
@Washington 53%
Predicted W-L: 3-1
Predicted Finish: 13-5


Arizona:
@UCLA: 50%
Arizona State: 87%
Predicted W-L: 2-0
Predicted Finish: 13-5


California:
Utah: 85%
Colorado: 59%
Stanford: 62%
Predicted W-L: 3-0
Predicted Finish: 13-5


Colorado:
@California: 41%
Oregon: 62%
Oregon State: 82%
Predicted W-L: 2-1
Predicted Finish: 11-7


Arizona State:
@USC: 39%
@Arizona: 13%
Predicted W-L: 0-2
Predicted Finish: 9-9


If things finish as predicted. The tiebreaker starts at head to head, Arizona would be in bad shape since they lost to Oregon, Cal and UCLA twice. Surprisingly Cal would most likely come out on top.
1- California 13-5(H2H: 4-1)
2- Oregon 13-5(H2H: 2-2)
3- UCLA 13-5(H2H: 2-3)
4- Arizona 13-5(H2H: 1-3)
5- Colorado 11-7


If UCLA beats Arizona we would see this:


1 - UCLA 14-4
2 - California 13-5(H2H: 2-2)
3 - Oregon 13-5(H2H: 2-3)
4 - Arizona 13-5(H2H: 0-4)
5 - Colorado 11-7


If Colorado beats California and Arizona wins verus UCLA


1- Oregon 13-5(H2H: 2-2)
2- UCLA 13-5(H2H: 2-3)
3- Arizona 13-5(H2H: 1-3)
4- Colorado 12-6
5- California 12-6


If Colorado beats Califronia and UCLA beat Arizona


1 - UCLA 14-4
2 - Oregon 13-5(H2H: 2-3)
3 - Arizona 13-5(H2H: 0-4)
4 - Colorado 12-6
5 - California 12-6




I am not going to go in the past and talk about the losses versus Arizona, Arizona State and Utah, since all teams have a loss or two they wish they didn't.
 
Someone rep that man.

And put me down for "Colorado beats California and Arizona wins versus UCLA". First round bye, Cal, then Oregon, then hopefully Arizona. That's the best case scenario.
 
We need to have CU/UA in the finals of the conference championship every year.
 
Right now, it looks to me like Zona is pretty much locked into the 4 spot. If they lose at home to ASU, and CU sweeps this week, we tie them record wise, but I don't know how the tie-breaker plays out. That said, they won't lose at home to ASU. We're looking good for the five spot.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say it finishes:

1.) UCLA (sweep over Washingtons this week)
2.) Cal (beat Stanford at home)
3.) Oregon (split RM road trip)
4.) Zona (beat ASU)
5.) Colorado (sweep Oregons)
6.) USC (split Washingtons)
7.) dontgivea****

It'd really be nice if UCLA could find a way to screw up one game this week. Otherwise, we're looking at Wazzu, Arizona, UCLA, Cal/Oregon.
 
Goose said:
Right now, it looks to me like Zona is pretty much locked into the 4 spot. If they lose at home to ASU, and CU sweeps this week, we tie them record wise, but I don't know how the tie-breaker plays out. That said, they won't lose at home to ASU. We're looking good for the five spot.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say it finishes:

1.) UCLA (sweep over Washingtons this week)
2.) Cal (beat Stanford at home)
3.) Oregon (split RM road trip)
4.) Zona (beat ASU)
5.) Colorado (sweep Oregons)
6.) USC (split Washingtons)
7.) dontgivea****

It'd really be nice if UCLA could find a way to screw up one game this week. Otherwise, we're looking at Wazzu, Arizona, UCLA, Cal/Oregon.
Click to expand...

In your scenario, we have the tie-breaker over 'Zona, since we beat Cal, and they're 0-1 against them. (CU and 'Zona a combined 0-3 against UCLA). Similarly, since the Buffs have beaten Oregon twice in your scenario, we'd still have the tie-breaker over 'Zona if Oregon finished second.

Tying with 'Zona is our only available path to 4th.
 
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Goose said:
If I had to guess right now, I'd say it finishes:

1.) UCLA (sweep over Washingtons this week)
2.) Cal (beat Stanford at home)
3.) Oregon (split RM road trip)
4.) Zona (beat ASU)
5.) Colorado (sweep Oregons)
6.) USC (split Washingtons)
7.) dontgivea****
Click to expand...

If we split, seems like we drop to 6 or 7 only if either/both USC or ASU goes undefeated. does that sound right?
 
Wednesday:

USC (9-7) at Washington (8-8) - Middle of the Pac logjam battle. USC defeated UW in their first meeting

UCLA (12-4) at Washington State (2-14) - UCLA fighting for 1st (Oregon owns tiebreaker over UCLA), Wazzu currently 12th.

Stanford (8-9) at Cal (12-5) - Cal currently 3rd, needs win and help to move up. Stanford currently 9th, only way to avoid 8/9 game is to tie with ASU (Stanford has tiebreaker) and Washington lose final two games (have to finish a game ahead of Washington, as Huskies have tiebreaker)
 
Goose said:
Right now, it looks to me like Zona is pretty much locked into the 4 spot. If they lose at home to ASU, and CU sweeps this week, we tie them record wise, but I don't know how the tie-breaker plays out. That said, they won't lose at home to ASU. We're looking good for the five spot.

If I had to guess right now, I'd say it finishes:

1.) UCLA (sweep over Washingtons this week)
2.) Cal (beat Stanford at home)
3.) Oregon (split RM road trip)
4.) Zona (beat ASU)
5.) Colorado (sweep Oregons)
6.) USC (split Washingtons)
7.) dontgivea****

It'd really be nice if UCLA could find a way to screw up one game this week. Otherwise, we're looking at Wazzu, Arizona, UCLA, Cal/Oregon.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I give up.
 
sliderNcider said:
So who do we want to win here (Stanford/Cal)
Click to expand...

I don't really know. There's no way Furd can get ahead of us since we own the tiebreaker. I wouldn't mind Cal falling to the 4 spot and getting a rematch with them in the 4/5 game, but Arizona doesn't scare me either as an opponent in that 4/5 game.
 
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