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2015 Advanced Stats Thread - Week 9 (trending better)

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Darth Snow, Sep 21, 2015.

  1. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Granted, that may be a reflection of our competition so far, but right now we are....
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
    90th (up from 95 last week);

    (Hawaii = 110, Umass = 111, CSU = 61, Nicholls = N/A, Oregon = 9, ASU = 20, Zona 39, OSU 85, UCLA 12, Stanford 15, USC 14, WSU 88, Utah 36).

    Now, these don't tell the whole story, but still, wow, this is a drop from last year. The difference, I guess, is that we found a way to win a close game - which statistics will treat as nothing more than luck as we a return to the norm after last year's awful showing in close games. Either way, I think the take away so far is that this team really needs to improve its efficiency on offense in a big way, or we are in for a series of very rough outings. Because other than WSU and OSU, all the other teams (yes, even upset special pick Zona) are in a different class. We will be double digit dogs in every single game other than those two.
     
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2015
  2. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    losing to 110 doesnt help your numbers....
     
  3. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Don't care, just win.
     
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  4. Gary Indiana

    Gary Indiana Club Member Club Member

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    I may be off base, but I don't put much weight into these kind of stats when mutual opponents across CFB is almost non-existent, particularly this early in the year.
     
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  5. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I think asu is an anomoly. It doesn't seem like they have played very well this year.
     
  6. Burrito Palazzo

    Burrito Palazzo huff my smug Club Member

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    I tend to ignore them unless they say what I want them to say.
     
  7. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Absolutely an issue, but these stats generally do a better job compiling all the available info into a real ranking than anything else I know of.
     
  8. Buffenuf

    Buffenuf massive tool

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    DARN!!! I wanted us to win as many style points as possible.

    That's what really counts, amirite?
     
  9. boulder77

    boulder77 Certified Organic Club Member

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    .... but beating 61 should.

    Or maybe it just evens everything back out.
     
  10. Buffenuf

    Buffenuf massive tool

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    Yeah, that's why the SEC is always ranked so high: those style points earned against Middle Tennessee and SW LA TECH!
     
  11. SINKRATZ

    SINKRATZ Club Member Club Member

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    This post is Tini approved.
     
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  12. Denver_sc

    Denver_sc Club Member Club Member

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    Where did you pull the rankings from? If I saw the methodology, they might make a bit more sense.
     
  13. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Yes, absolutely. I'd love to see the advanced stats ranking of Ahhhbern and Mizzery after this weekends stellar outings by both teams.
     
  14. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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  15. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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  16. Buff_since76

    Buff_since76 Still a fan... Club Member

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    Arkansas #26... I think they have a monkey throwing darts to come up with this order
     
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  17. Uncle Ken

    Uncle Ken Orr no morr Club Member

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    I remember when losing to Toledo really helped us in the rankings.
     
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  18. Bufffan68

    Bufffan68 Club Member Club Member

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    Meh. Unless there is some evidence these stats have proven to be predictive in the past, I put little stock in them. College football teams are so different year-to-year rendering any attempt at longitudinal analysis pretty meaningless IMO.
     
  19. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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  20. Creebuzz

    Creebuzz Club Member Club Member

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    The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) considers each of the nearly 20,000 possessions every season in major college football. All drives are filtered to eliminate first-half clock-kills and end-of-game garbage drives and scores. A scoring rate analysis of the remaining possessions then determines the baseline possession efficiency expectations against which each team is measured. A team is rewarded for playing well against good teams, win or lose, and is punished more severely for playing poorly against bad teams than it is rewarded for playing well against bad teams.

    How do you determine what's a good team versus a bad team so early in the season? It would seem that the advanced stats would become useful 8 or 9 weeks into the schedule and virtually useless toward the beginning of the season.
     
  21. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I think your last sentence goes over the top, but yes, the stats get better as the year goes on.
     
  22. SBG

    SBG Formerly known as EFNMB Club Member Junta Member

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    Plenty of games to disprove their analysis. Stats don't always show the full picture, but let's not nitpick the outliers like arky and auburn. Trends are what matter.

    We are near the bottom no matter how you spin it.
     
  23. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    that hawaii loss hurts i am sure-- we looked totally inept in that game and we lost to a slightly less inept opponent. and, we looked utterly inept at times against csu.

    we've earned the computer's disrespect. atone by beating some teams we aren't supposed to beat.
     
  24. gone native

    gone native Club Member Club Member

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    I can't wait till our offense starts looking more ept again.
     
  25. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

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    I do think it is too early to do those rankings...The comments about Auburn are a little misguided. They were playing against a pretty good LSU team...

    Some teams have played weak competition whereas others have played a little tougher. Too early to tell.
     
  26. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    And what nobody did Ahhhbern just barely beat, at home, the week before?
     
  27. Burrito Palazzo

    Burrito Palazzo huff my smug Club Member

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    Hey, be nice, there's a poster on this board who loves his SEC team.
     
  28. Denver_sc

    Denver_sc Club Member Club Member

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    It did say that "during the first four weeks preseason projections play less and less of a role in the formula." so at this point, the preseason projections for Mizzery, Auburn, Arkansas, (even Bama) etc. are likely floating them a bit.
     
  29. Uncle Ken

    Uncle Ken Orr no morr Club Member

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    I've seen Mizzou, Auburn and Arkansas play. They don't really need the pre-season rankings to help them float.
     
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  30. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Week five is over. The S&P is now based entirely on this season. And it's not good.

    http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pa...profiles?_ga=1.245297286.209816443.1415363851

    http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2015-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile
    CU is 104. Rutgers and Kansas are the only P5 teams worse than us. Best chance for a win? Arizona at home.

    Our offense is terrible. Our defense is reverting to terrible as our schedule ramps up. Eek.
     

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