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Advanced Stats and CU - 2016 Edition

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Darth Snow, Sep 12, 2016.

  1. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I like checking in on these. Right now, CU has some truly eye popping efficiency numbers in certain categories, but they aren't showing up very well in the overall ranking, which is just 74. Why?


    http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile
    Basically, cause the model expects us to suck, and won't fully count in season performance until week five. Which makes sense. Bill also noted that the efficiency stats just aren't very reliable yet because of the low amount of data points.

    CU: 74
    CSU: 93
    Michigan: 4
    Oregon: 11
    OSU: 88 (only game we are favored in rest of the season at the moment)
    USC: 12
    Stanford: 13
    UCLA: 19
    Arizona: 61
    ASU: 48
    WSU: 65
    Utah: 38

    Now, caveats aside, I like most of the below numbers, so let's take a look:

    Early notes: Our offense is still not all that explosive (79), which is better than last year, but obviously not great. However, it is currently the most efficient offense in the nation, and is above average in finishing drives. However, we just don't get explosive running plays. All our scoring plays on the run, except for Sefo's one, have been like 2 yards, putting us last in the nation somehow.

    Defense: Extremely good at stopping explosive plays (#11), and is very good at making other teams inefficient (#4). However, it is average at stopping drives that get across our 40. (#66) But the defense has all sorts of good numbers.

    In any event, only thing I can say for sure is that the numbers are improved, albeit against crap competition. My concern is that the OL stats, such as they are, are mixed to average in most spots.

    And Beau Bisharat is struggling.
    Special teams look average. Woot!
     
    Uncle Ken, TDforTD, Fight CU and 4 others like this.
  2. buff4bcs1985

    buff4bcs1985 Hail to the King

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    to the bolded how many drives have gotten past cu's 40... 2? 0-2 aint ****ty hahah
     
  3. InTheBuff

    InTheBuff Club Member Club Member

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    for me it's because csu and ISU both truly suck ...
    like REALLY suck...
     
  4. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

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    Great thread.

    Our RBs just aren't very good.
     
  5. zbuff

    zbuff Club Member Club Member

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    Okay, I looked.
    CU Probability of finishing 6-6 or better: 34.4%
    Cal Probability of finishing 6-6 or better: 25.6%
     
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  6. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Allsome. I didn't mention that stat cause I didn't like it. Now you made me like it a little.
     
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  7. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Now my favorite stat. HUGE improvement over last year.

     
  8. StormTrooper

    StormTrooper Millennial Liason Club Member

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  9. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    That's some rarified air.
     
  10. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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  11. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    For a team which struggles in the red zone, explosive plays are vital.
     
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  12. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Do we struggle in the red zone this year? I know we did last year. I don't think 2014 was too bad
     
  13. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

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    Explosive running plays are obviously limited by our personnel. I don't know why Lindgren doesn't dial up more long passing plays. Does he not trust Sefo's long ball accuracy or the OL?
     
  14. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Wait, what? Sefo goes deep plenty.
     
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  15. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Not sure. My guess is we got a nice boost from Idaho State.
     
  16. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    We go deep enough. No reliable big receiving targets in the red zone is a problem.
     
  17. Mighty Buff

    Mighty Buff Asshat BANNED

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    Ento 6'3
    Bobo 6'2
    Rakestraw 6'2
    Huntley 6'3

    Gotta be bigger I gues.

    I like em all.
     
  18. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Not all about height, but carry on.
     
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  19. Bufffan68

    Bufffan68 Club Member Club Member

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    Yeah he does. He needs to improve his accuracy, but I think he went downtown a half dozen times each game.
     
  20. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Yup. Hope ento can do that
     
  21. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    You weren't saying that when we had one receiver over 6'1" a couple of years ago
     
  22. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Definitely have gotten taller, but it will take time for the newer group to get bigger. Also several guys who need to adjust to this level of play as well. Understand the difference or do I need to walk you through that step by step?
     
  23. BuffLuKe

    BuffLuKe Club Member Club Member

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    Ento or Huntley would be my guess. I'm hoping Huntley cause he's got good weight too.
     
  24. patebuff

    patebuff Downgraded to half a star Club Member

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    My hope is we have some red zone plays set up for Ento/Keeney in the Michigan game.
     
  25. BuffLuKe

    BuffLuKe Club Member Club Member

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    Ento has surprised me so far, bigger dude than I thought and he can run a bit too.
     
  26. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    Your points stand with validity. Though while our guys need to definitely bulk up, it's not like we are walking out sticks at wide out. And based on the first two games, downfield blocking has been exceptional, i'm personally not to worried about weight on our WR's this year, just catch the damn ball when it hits you in the hands.
     
  27. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    CU is now up to 43 overall. http://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2016-colorado-advanced-statistical-profile

    However, these projections are still based off the preseason to a surprising degree (to me), so you can reasonably argue CU is still undervalued and is somewhere near the top 20. It also makes for some interesting takes on teams falling down the rankings in a big way (cough USC)

    CU: 43
    CSU: 90 (staying the same)
    @Michigan: 2 (they are getting better as the season rolls on - look like the truth)
    @Oregon: 20 (falllllllllling)
    OSU: 84 (treading water)
    @USC: 34 (fallllllllllllllling)
    ASU: 57 (treadin)
    @Stanford: 9 (improving slightly)
    UCLA: 27
    @Arizona: 62
    WSU: 63 (how are these guys still this high?)
    Utah: 32

    Favored in all games but USC, Stanford, and UCLA. Projected chance of getting 5-7 or below: 8%. Most likely end result: 7-5 at 28%, followed by 8-4 at 26%.

    Other takes: Our running game is holding us back. While it is moderately efficient, it continues to be one of the worst in the country at explosiveness.

    passing game is good, really good. Sefo is better at it than montez by a clear step, but montez is a better runner. To be expected.

    We are the 8th fastest paced team in the nation.

    Defense is good, not great. #33 in the nation at causing havoc. Mostly from the DBs and LBs, as the DL is doing a good job at keeping blockers off them. Samson is doing work.
     
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  28. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

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    If 30% of our rank is weighed towards last year's S&P (98th) and 70% is rated towards this year, that means we're at ~19th or 20th for this year's S&P.
     
  29. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    That's exactly what my gut said, but I don't know how much last year's final ranking is used in this year's projected ranking.
     
  30. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

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    Ah, if he's using projections, he projected us at 76, not 98. We finished LY at 98.
     
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