An early look at the Pac-12 in 2012

[Goose]

JG,

What will Oregon State's numbers look like if Cunningham declares for the draft?

 

[mattrob]

I agree. But it can be argued that Dinwiddie & Booker, although very good, were not the equivalents of Burks, Higgins & Knutson, yet we had a better season, no? It can also be argued, I believe, that the incoming freshmen are all as good or better than what is leaving the program. We'll get leadership from Dre and Dinwiddie, of that I have very little doubt.

We're going to be better next year than we were this year.

I think we'll probably be a better team next year, but I'm not sure it's realistic to expect a better season. The talent coming into Arizona and UCLA next year is very good and the conference as a whole should be much improved. I don't think an at-large bid is out of the question though.

 

[jgisland]

JG,

What will Oregon State's numbers look like if Cunningham declares for the draft?

Oregon St if Cunningham Leaves

Oregon St
Off Win Share % Lost	26.54
Def Win Share % Lost	1.62
Total Win Share % Lost	17.81

If he stays

Oregon St
Off Win Share % Lost	1.98
Def Win Share % Lost	0.26
Total Win Share % Lost	2.85

 

[NashBuff]

Don't you guys think we might be underrating Oregon State? They return a lot of scoring next season and while their defense was the worst in the Pac-12, I'd say they have nowhere to go but go up. If they play some defense, they could be good.

I did expect CU to contend for the Pac-12 championship this year and they pulled it off in the tourney. If our incoming class can live up to its billing, we could contend for the Pac-12 title again. At this point, we should finish in the top half of the conference at least and that should be the minimum expecations for Boyle at CU.

 

[jgisland]

It made sense in the Pac 12 for sure, because aside from Sim there aren't many knockdown 3 pt shooters but we should be able to adapt that game plan for teams like Baylor.

Going to defend Tad and the staff here a little:

I was looking at Heslip's KenPom numbers last night and realized he is virtually the same player as Levi was for CU last year. Only Levi actually used more offensive possessions, took a higher % of shots and shot a higher 3pt% vs Heslip #'s this year. If I was game-planning against CU last year, as good as a shooter as Levi was, I wouldn't set my entire game plan up to stop him. Be aware of him, sure, but CU had lots of other more deadly weapons to worry about. A shooter got hot, had the game of his life and beat CU, it happens.

	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FTM-FTA	Pct	2PM-2PA	Pct	3PM-3PA	Pct
Levi Knutson	66.4	131.2	16.2	21	63.6	65.9	2.7	9.6	7	10.8	0.2	1.2	2.8	2.4	16.7	47-52	0.904	77-141	0.546	81-171	0.474
Brady Heslip	67.1	138.5	13.4	19.7	63.8	65.7	1.2	4.5	6.8	7.8	0	1.4	2	1.9	11.9	30-32	0.938	24-53	0.453	98-215	0.456

 

[Bone Buff]

Going to defend Tad and the staff here a little:

I was looking at Heslip's KenPom numbers last night and realized he is virtually the same player as Levi was for CU last year. Only Levi actually used more offensive possessions, took a higher % of shots and shot a higher 3pt% vs Heslip #'s this year. If I was game-planning against CU last year, as good as a shooter as Levi was, I wouldn't set my entire game plan up to stop him. Be aware of him, sure, but CU had lots of other more deadly weapons to worry about. A shooter got hot, had the game of his life and beat CU, it happens.

	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FTM-FTA	Pct	2PM-2PA	Pct	3PM-3PA	Pct
Levi Knutson	66.4	131.2	16.2	21	63.6	65.9	2.7	9.6	7	10.8	0.2	1.2	2.8	2.4	16.7	47-52	0.904	77-141	0.546	81-171	0.474
Brady Heslip	67.1	138.5	13.4	19.7	63.8	65.7	1.2	4.5	6.8	7.8	0	1.4	2	1.9	11.9	30-32	0.938	24-53	0.453	98-215	0.456

Wow, this is a good post.

Variance is a bitch.

 

[sackman]

Saying Heslip had the game of his life is an understatement. He was a machine.

 

[Buffnik]

Bumping as a reminder to myself that I need to devote some time to reading this. Lot of good work by you guys, it would seem.

 

[shang]

Going to defend Tad and the staff here a little:

I was looking at Heslip's KenPom numbers last night and realized he is virtually the same player as Levi was for CU last year. Only Levi actually used more offensive possessions, took a higher % of shots and shot a higher 3pt% vs Heslip #'s this year. If I was game-planning against CU last year, as good as a shooter as Levi was, I wouldn't set my entire game plan up to stop him. Be aware of him, sure, but CU had lots of other more deadly weapons to worry about. A shooter got hot, had the game of his life and beat CU, it happens.

	%Min	ORtg	%Poss	%Shots	eFG%	TS%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FC/40	FD/40	FTRate	FTM-FTA	Pct	2PM-2PA	Pct	3PM-3PA	Pct
Levi Knutson	66.4	131.2	16.2	21	63.6	65.9	2.7	9.6	7	10.8	0.2	1.2	2.8	2.4	16.7	47-52	0.904	77-141	0.546	81-171	0.474
Brady Heslip	67.1	138.5	13.4	19.7	63.8	65.7	1.2	4.5	6.8	7.8	0	1.4	2	1.9	11.9	30-32	0.938	24-53	0.453	98-215	0.456

thanks for the info on this jgisland... based on all the info out there, Coaches had waaaay more pressing issues, like the Baylor front line and all those offensive rebounds, along w/ the point guard play... nice job......

 

[HotRack]

Needed to get someone off the bench to foul Heslip HARD to make him think twice about taking that three again. Little **** pissed me off to no end despite the fact he was having the game of life. Props there, but he needed to be FOULED and fouled HARD.

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

Needed to get someone off the bench to foul Heslip HARD to make him think twice about taking that three again. Little **** pissed me off to no end despite the fact he was having the game of life. Props there, but he needed to be FOULED and fouled HARD.

I was hoping for the same exact thing.

 

[jgisland]

I was hoping for the same exact thing.

So were abs and I.

 

[mattrob]

So were abs and I.

Looks like everyone was on the same page. Someone needed to closeout and run right through him.

 

[btbuff]

The hardest thing to evaluate is probably one of our biggest losses, leadership. Dufault, Carlon, and Nate were our team leaders. All three players would approach the other players and work to correct mistakes, especially midgame. I know Shane and Ski have a decent in game relationship, but who else. Tad mentioned multiple times how often Carlon would contribute in time outs to ensure we didn't lose. Is Dinwiddie or Andre actually going to step up. I find Andre an unlikely/maybe unwilling candidate to be a leader. Maybe leadership by committee?

 

[CVilleBuff]

Great thread.

Here's my early prediction: Buffs will be a higher seed in the Pac-12 tournament than we were this year.

 

[Deleted member 807]

Does anybody know how CU's OOC schedule is shaping up?

 

[HotRack]

The hardest thing to evaluate is probably one of our biggest losses, leadership. Dufault, Carlon, and Nate were our team leaders. All three players would approach the other players and work to correct mistakes, especially midgame. I know Shane and Ski have a decent in game relationship, but who else. Tad mentioned multiple times how often Carlon would contribute in time outs to ensure we didn't lose. Is Dinwiddie or Andre actually going to step up. I find Andre an unlikely/maybe unwilling candidate to be a leader. Maybe leadership by committee?

I'd like to think that Dre and the Mayor stepped back this year to take cues and learn from the seniors. I think each in his own right has the ability to step up and fill in those roles next year. Dre through his play and Spencer due to position. I know I should know better,but who are our seniors next year? I can only think of Chen and while I love his energy off the bench in regular season games, he will never see starter or 6th man type minutes.

With no seniors seeing regular minutes next year, the leadership role either gets established in the off season or we will be seeing a roller coaster season and a lot of :wtf:early as the leader(s) of the team establish themselves. If it happens early, Watch. The. ****. Out.

 

[tante]

Chen is the only senior

 

[BehindEnemyLines]

It's amazing. 2 years in a row, I'm thinking wow, I can't wait to see this team next season. 2 years in a row. That's never happened before.

 

[Goose]

Transfers that were announced yesterday:

Arizona State - Trent Lockett
USC - Alexis Moore
USC - Curtis Washington
USC - Garrett Jackson
Utah - Anthony Udonsi

These are only the publicly announced transfers too. We're going to have more in the PAC-12 over the next few days/weeks.

 

[SuperiorBuff]

Needed to get someone off the bench to foul Heslip HARD to make him think twice about taking that three again. Little **** pissed me off to no end despite the fact he was having the game of life. Props there, but he needed to be FOULED and fouled HARD.

Absolutely, after the 4th he should have been face raked. If he set a pick, he should have been run over like a prairie dog on 36.

 

[Quattro]

Transfers that were announced yesterday:

Arizona State - Trent Lockett
USC - Alexis Moore
USC - Curtis Washington
USC - Garrett Jackson
Utah - Anthony Udonsi

These are only the publicly announced transfers too. We're going to have more in the PAC-12 over the next few days/weeks.

And things keep getting worse for USC...

 

[Buffnik]

Transfers that were announced yesterday:

Arizona State - Trent Lockett
USC - Alexis Moore
USC - Curtis Washington
USC - Garrett Jackson
Utah - Anthony Udonsi

These are only the publicly announced transfers too. We're going to have more in the PAC-12 over the next few days/weeks.

Didn't USC also have one of its recruiting signees opt to do a year of prep school next year rather than join the USC program?

 

[Goose]

And things keep getting worse for USC...

At least they should get Jio Fontan back. But yeah...

Didn't USC also have one of its recruiting signees opt to do a year of prep school next year rather than join the USC program?

Yup. Larry Lewis.

I think JT Terrell will finally be eligible for them next year though, which should help.

 

[jgisland]

Transfers that were announced yesterday:

Arizona State - Trent Lockett
USC - Alexis Moore
USC - Curtis Washington
USC - Garrett Jackson
Utah - Anthony Udonsi

These are only the publicly announced transfers too. We're going to have more in the PAC-12 over the next few days/weeks.

Wow I missed that about Lockett. Reading about it now, wish him and his family the best.

Darth posted in another thread that Brendon Lane is graduating early from UCLA and going to leave the program.

 

[Mick Ronson]

our best returning variable is the same this year as last. being in the Pac instead of the XII.

the 2010-11 Buffs would have beaten this years team by 10 points, maybe more.

i think Nate and Dufault both had pretty good season's for us. Austin D has frustrated me his whole career but he gave us double figures scoring most of the conf season. that was big. they will be missed. however, the talent level does continue to rise.

 

[Darth Snow]

Damn, counting the early graduate, USC just lost over a 3d of next years roster... Ouch.

 

[RumblinBuff]

Damn, counting the early graduate, USC just lost over a 3d of next years roster... Ouch.

Still, they can't be worse than last season, right?

 

[Darth Snow]

Still, they can't be worse than last season, right?

umm, they will have about the same amount of scholly players, sooo, maybe?

 

[RK]

Transfers that were announced yesterday:

Arizona State - Trent Lockett
USC - Alexis Moore
USC - Curtis Washington
USC - Garrett Jackson
Utah - Anthony Udonsi

These are only the publicly announced transfers too. We're going to have more in the PAC-12 over the next few days/weeks.

Would gladly take in T-Lock too bad its in conference.