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An Honest Assessment...

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by TZISKIN, Dec 1, 2011.

  1. TZISKIN

    TZISKIN Well-Known Member

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    People aren't gonna like this... but oh well. As most know I had the Buffs going 6-6 in the non-conference portion of the schedule, (2-5 at this point) so I shouldn't be so disappointed, but I am. People keep talking about our improved scheduling, but without a doubt, our schedule this year is softer than last. The Pac 12 is horrible, and we play MAYBE one team in the non-conference that will be RPI top 50 this year (Wichita St).

    To be honest, we're VERY lucky to not be 2-5, we had no business beating Air Force, and we nearly choked away yet another game with FTs at home against Georgia. We are 4-3... not the end of the world to be sure, but it's about HOW we've won that concerns me. This team is the worst FT shooting team I've ever seen in my life... and it's not because we don't have shooters. And that's where my problem lies, FTs are mental, FTs are about toughness. It's clear that this team does not have the mental fortitude to knock down these shots right now, they aren't confident offensively, especially Andre. I know many people expected him to be a much improved scorer this year, and it's pretty easy to tell that he isn't. He'll have huge games because he's a freak athlete that works very hard, but he gets garbage points, he's still incapable of producing his own shot, creating for himself, etc.

    The bottom line is that nearly every team we've played this year has been considerably worse than I anticipated, Georgia, CSU, Air Force, Maryland, and even Wichita St were not what I expected, and all of those teams minus Wichita are borderline NIT teams at BEST. I knew we'd struggle early, but god damn, we've played some bum squads, and we still sit at 4-3. The Pac 12 sucks this year and we are a good home team so I can see us going around .500 in the conference, but this is at most a 3 bid league this year and we aren't even close to Top 3 despite the conference being abysmal. I had us going 13-17 previous to the season, and we'll likely get more than that at this point, but that doesn't change the fact that I'm MORE disappointed in this team than I thought I'd be. We could get to 18-19 wins and still not be even close to considered for the NCAAT because of our weak schedule... and I wouldn't complain one bit. We don't look like a team capable of being in the postseason, let alone winning in it.

    People will say, you could have said the same thing last year. This is true. Three major differences though... Alec Burks, Cory Higgins, and FT shooting. Nothing further needs to be said on the topic. Our most gifted players are not aggressive enough to be on their level, they aren't confident enough to be on their level. I tried to hold off posting this for awhile since I know I'm heated... not sure how it will come off. Either way, will we improve? Sure... I'd expect so. But this isn't a tourney team, so we might as well get that out of our heads now.
     
  2. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Already there my man, but the choir aint gonna like what you say. Thanks for the legit post though. I'm so shocked the talent we have is producing at the FT line like it is.

    However, if there is one thing Boyle does, it is improve his guys as the season goes on. Except for Carlon and Dre, every single player has gotten better as this season has gone on. The FT shooting, sadly, has nowhere to go but up.

    However, we have now lost 1, maybe 2 games that we should have won because of FT. I think we lose 6 more. The talent disparity against CSU was appalling, but the team was soft and panicky in key moments, and that is why we lost. Even when we were making our run, the offense was horrible.
     
  3. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I agree with a lot of what you said but who are these shooters you speak of? I don't think there is a shooter on this team, maybe Chen?

    Last year FT% of the 4 impact players that returned.
    Roberson .553
    Dufaule .629
    Sharpe .647
    Nate .529

    Adams shot .661 last year in JuCo
    Brown was a .679 career FT shooter at Utah (although he did get better every year and shot nearly 76% in 2010)

    This team is full of the "combo guard" type of player, lots of athletic slashers but nobody who can consistently knock down a jumper. Couple that with really only having 2 post players in Dufault and SHT, and Dufault isn't a true post player, he is a guy who would rather face up to the basket and SHT can't body up anybody. So you are left with a team that can't knock down shots from the outside and can't post anybody up. CU has to beat teams by penetration and passing, tough to do when there isn't somebody like Levi outside to keep them honest from just totally packing it in on D.

    Agreed no way is this a tournament team, but hopefully Cain gets into the mix and can create some sort of a post presence, Booker continues to develop, Adams gets fully into the rotation and things could get better.
     
  4. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    Free Throws will cost us plenty of games, especially on the road, but I still see a team capable of reeling off a sweep of the remaining non-conference games. Furthermore, despite all the offensive struggles I still have seen nothing to doubt that we can get to 16 wins.

    Anyone who was thinking Tournament, with a capital 'T', before this season started was delusional, I said it then, and I'd be saying it if we were perfect on the year. A .500 record gets us in the postseason; the NIT still counts, and that'd be a victory for the program.

    Sitting at 9-3 headed into conference play, in a weak conference, should be more than enough to set us up for an NIT bid. My goal for the season was a second consecutive post-season berth. That's only happened once since Sox Walseth prowled the sideline; that'd be a fine accomplishment headed into next season with the best CU recruiting class ever.

    The sky is falling a lot slower than you think it is.
     
  5. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    CU does not equal UCLA where the sky has nearly fallen. I don't see why CU can't run the rest of the non-conf table either (although Fresno St isn't that bad) and compete in a good majority of conf games and winning 50% of them.

    You are right rumblin, anybody who thought this was a NCAA tourney team is delusional. Most who follow this team at all closely are seeing pretty much what they expected.
     
  6. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    I talked before the season started about free throws taking a massive step back this season precisely because of this point. I kind of tempered it because I wondered about the effects of lack of opportunities on the numbers (Nate's % has improved this season with more opportunities, for example), but I had no doubt that this team would struggle on the line... just not to this extent.

    This is just dramatically bad. Junior high teams don't shoot this poorly from the line. Shaq could teach these guys a thing or two.
     
  7. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    I just want people to understand that an NIT berth, a distinct possibility unless a whole world of **** collapses, would be a win for the program.
     
  8. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Very tempted to name a possibility that would be a "whole world of ****" collapsing...
     
  9. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    This team is far too young to have the expectations placed on it that some of you guys have. NIT would represent a massive success for this years team, even with the Pac's weakness. We lost every decent free-throw shooter on the team, 90% of the offense and all of our leadership. We are going to lose games like this, we just are. The fact we stole one at AFA says more about this team than that we lost last night. It is going to be a rough season for us, we are rebuilding and rebuilding at CU in basketball does not mean NIT expectations are realistic.
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    18 or 19 wins with another NIT berth would be very solid. This team is about where the 2009 squad was and will return a much better result.
     
  11. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Lots of good stuff in this thread. Honestly, this summer I thought that I would have to raise expectations for the fans. Everyone kept hearing us being picked 10-12 in the PAC-12 and I thought that was low. Unfortunately, I started to buy a little too much of the hype myself, and I know others did, and I think we came in with expectations that were too high. Look at the results from a poll on October 4th. 65% of the voters had us in teh top 6 of the conference. As bad as the PAC is, that's still a little high.

    That said, I still think the NIT is VERY realistic. We're going to go 8-4/9-3 in non-conference (I would say 9-3, but if we continue to lay eggs like we did last night and in Colorado Springs, we could drop another one here or there). If we win the KenPom suggested 6 games in conference play, that puts us at 15-15 heading in to the PAC-12 tourney. I think that sneaks us in.
     
  12. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Not many bright spots from last night, but consider this -- that arena might be one of the top 3-5 hostile environments they'll see this year. It may not be as big or even as loud as some others, but I'll bet it was definitely unfriendly.

    This experience may help them later in the year.
     
  13. torerobuff

    torerobuff Dancing is forbidden Club Member

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    :nod: It will definitely be more hostile than playing UCLA in anaheim or the forum or Victorville or wherever the hell UCLA is playing this year.
     
  14. boydbuff

    boydbuff Club Member Club Member

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    I think it is hard to disagree with the realistic assessment of the the state of play of the hoops team at this point of the season. FT shooting was so bad at CSU that the announcers and Tad himself were smiling at the stupidity of it. But we have a VERY young team and Tad is a great coach. The team is very talented although I am still concerned that we don't have a go to guy who wills his team to win. But I am a bit more optimistic about the season. Because we are so young and because Tad is good at getting the best out of his team over the season I think we will get there. The other thing is, despite how bad we have played in some of these games, I love that they don't give up. They were down like 12 points to CSU and had a chance to win it in the last 30 seconds of the game-on the road. Just like the football team, we have had lots of problems the past several years winning hoops on the road-and our attitude just isn't the same on the road. But unlike our football team (except for Utah at the end) we have found a way to fight through it and stay in games we really shouldn't be in. We had no right to win the CSU game or the Air Force game with how we played-yet we somehow did win at Air Force and came within a whisker at CSU. I think that bodes well for the team throughout the season.
     
  15. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Very few fans, if any, were expecting the Buffs to make a run at the tourney this year. I agree that our play has been disappointing and worse than our record indicates. However, I disagree with those who see us finishing 10th or 11th in the Pac, and much of that has little to do with CU...It's that the Pac-12 ****ing sucks this year, and even a team that's where CU is at right now could finish 8th/9th in this league. Show even modest improvements and this team finishes 7th
     
  16. GoBuffs!!

    GoBuffs!! Active Member

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    I would say the worst part about this team this year isnt the Win - Loss, its watching a team that you can see talent in, and then losing for little things (taking care of the ball, and Free Throws). If they were getting out played, I think we would just complain about going to the ****hole up north, not so much losing the game, but we knew we should have won that game, should have beat AFA by a lot, should have beat Maryland, and probably should have given Witicha State a better game.

    This team is talented, and with the additions next year we will have a very good team very shortly, but they are young, and they will make freshman mistakes.
     
  17. Black&Yella

    Black&Yella New Member

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    Lets not freak out here

    Guys,
    Lets not freak out and write off this season. The sky is not falling yet.

    First off, we all know how bad we are on the road, why? i dont know, but the loss at CSU did not surprise me at all. Once Boyle trims down the rotation, i think our players will get more comfortable. I think he needs to sit Chen, and once Cain become eligible he will be off the bench quick so the roation would be Nate, Carlon, Dinwiddie, Austin, SHT, Roberson, Booker, Cain and Adams


    We will rack up a bunch of wins in the rest of the non-conference against **** teams and hopefully gains some confidence.
    No i dont think we will make the tourny but think we can upset some teams at home along the way
     
  18. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Cain is a true wild card for the season. Even if he takes 5 games to work into his role like Dinwiddie has, he will make a profound impact.

    Also, I like most of what I am seeing from Adams. He just needs to find his shot.
     
  19. RK

    RK UBL Club Member

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    Im not freaking out one bit. We haven't had this young of a team in a while and I don't think we understand that it takes time for them to mature. The free throw shooting is unacceptable I was shooting at the rec today and it blows my mind how hard they make such an easy thing look. Thankfully that can be improved as can everything else we have been struggling with. The only thing that scares me is that even with our awesome class coming in next year we still don't have a natural shooter. Ive never seen a great team that didn't have a player that knocked down open 3's consistently.
     
  20. sweaty teets

    sweaty teets Club Member Club Member

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    Agreed, would kill just to have Knutson back one more year.
     
  21. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    It is what it is. :smile2:
     
  22. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I spoke with Levi's parents last night. Now that I know what he was going through with his hips and the recovery, it's almost criminal that he wasn't given a year to redshirt in 2009. Water over the dam, as they say, but it's a mistake that has come back to bite us this year.
     
  23. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    ...I just don't get it. What in the world did you see in this year's team that made you (anyone, not just the guy that started this thread) think that NIT was even reasonable (I know...many of you in prior threads have explained this already...)? We were a very BORDERline NIT team going into the season, and I for one thought that was a lofty goal. As I've posted here and told friends, temper your expectations. Last year, we had Cory Higgins - he was so good. And then, yes, we had Burks too. We lost them and Levi and Relphorde. That was our team last year...

    I just don't understand any frustration at this year's team. Sure, FT shooting is annoying, but this year's team is young and have not played with each other for a long time. I also don't think there's a clear locker room or court leader. What did you expect? Higgins was the best contributor/player to CU's program since Chauncey. Burks was our best talent since Chuancey. Even with those two we made the NIT...say we got robbed all you want, but last year's team played themselves onto the bubble. So NIT team loses Higgins, Burks and the next two top contributors...and people still think NIT was a good goal? Sure, it's a good GOAL, but not realistic by any means.

    This team has still been surprisingly competitive in my opinion. The program is doing great in my opinion, even when we finish 9-10 in the conference. Sure the Pac 12 is bad...but we're not that good either. Next year though...NIT baby...and if X Johson develops like I hope he will...2013 NCAA. The team is doing fine for what they are.
     
  24. RK

    RK UBL Club Member

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    This has been stated clearly already but the problem is that we aren't getting outplayed, if we were than everyone would be saying "Well no burks or higgins we expected this" The problem is we are beating ourselves, Missed free throws, turnovers etc.. If the worst team in the country loses because of that they are gonna be disappointed.
     
  25. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    As much as it sucks to sit on a ****** performance like this for a week, I'm glad the Buffs have a week off to regroup and FIX THE FT SITUATION. Damiene Cain will be playing in our next game, but I'm hoping simultaneously that we're about at the point where we cut the PT on a few guys and get a solid rotation going. Time for 8 straight home games... While I certainly wouldn't count out a random bad OOC home loss, there's a good chance that CU will be 10-3 (1-0) with Washington coming to Boulder. No worse than 9-4 (1-0)
     
  26. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    I doubt it will happen, but I like the idea of inviting a bunch of students to act as distractors while shooting FT's. Could have 'em come in for the last 10-15 minutes of practice and run the FT's when the team is really tired -- compound the difficulty with noise and movement, on top of their fatigue.

    Maybe the AD could offer free hotdogs and cokes to the first 200 who show up.
     
  27. GoBuffs!!

    GoBuffs!! Active Member

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    Not only the distractions, which I think are minor. The big thing is the Pressure. In practice, you shoot 50%, who cares, other than the coach saying, hey we need to work on this. In a game, you shoot 50% and you lost the game for everyone. I have heard of coaches putting FT teams together, somewhat like playing horse from the FT line, then the winning team gets something, and the losing team has to run suicides or something.

    Whatever it is, I am sure that Boyle is doing everything he can to help the team with FT, but I wouldnt expect it to be fixed overnight, I wouldnt even expect it to be fixed this year, but we will see.
     

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