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Anthony Davis vs Andre Roberson

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Apr 3, 2012.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Obviously, Davis is a special talent. I'd actually say that he's in a class of his own. He should be the #1 pick in the draft if he comes out (if NBA GMs aren't more stupid than I thought).

    But how does our Andre Roberson's impact on games compare to Davis's?

    Davis is 6'10" to Dre's 6'7". That alone makes them different players and gives Davis an advantage. Also, Davis is playing on a better overall team with more guys on his own team who are "gonna get theirs".

    Moving beyond that, let's see what the numbers say?

    With a tip of the hat to Ken Pomeroy:

    Defensive Stat Ranks
    Rebounding %Block %Steals %
    Anthony Davis#49 (23.7%)#3 (13.76%)NR (2.5%)
    Andre Roberson#2 (29.6%)#91 (6.72%)#476 (2.6%)


    Offensive Stat Ranks
    eFG %Total Shooting %Rebounding %FT Rate
    Anthony Davis#10 (64.4%)#8 (66.7%)#184 (11.4%)#81 (60.2%)
    Andre Roberson#313 (54.3%)#389 (56.5%)#89 (12.7%)#117 (56.8%)


    On defense, Davis and Roberson end about the same percentage of possessions. Davis is at 39.46% and Roberson is at 38.92% (the 3 stats added together). Roberson's Steal % was actually a 3.5% as a freshman, so if he'd matched that he would have ended up above Davis. Regardless, Roberson impacts CU's games from the defensive end similarly to how much Davis impacted Kentucky games this year.

    Where we see the difference is on the offensive end. Davis was incredibly efficient. In fact, KenPom's stats put him #2 in the nation in Offensive Rating (135.6) while Roberson was unranked with an ORtg of 108.7 in 2011-12. Roberson is the better rebounder, even on the offensive end. He's also a 3 pt threat (.380 3pt%) while Davis is a liability when he steps out (.150 3pt%). But everything else is heavily weighted to Davis. In fact, Roberson actually regressed in some ways as a sophomore versus his freshman year. As a frosh, Roberson's eFG% was 61.5 (7.2% greater), his TS% was 60.9 (4.4% greater) and his rebounding OR% was 15.1 (2.4% greater and #16 in the nation). Progression was seen in 3pt% (up 0.37%) and FTRate (up 13.1%). So he did show significant improvement knocking down jumpers and of getting to the line.

    In the final analysis, the offensive ratings are where Davis really outshined Roberson this season. Defensively, they are both game changers. For Andre to take the next step in his development, lead the Buffs deep into the tournament, and become a lottery pick, he's got to improve the following for next year:

    - Shoot a much higher percentage from 2pt range
    - Get to the foul line more often
    - Force more steals (like he did as a freshman)
    - Continue to improve his shot blocking
    - Maintain or improve in other categories

    If Roberson does all that, he'll truly be CU's Anthony Davis in 2012-13... just a few inches shorter. That's national awards & draft lottery territory.
     
    jgisland likes this.
  2. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    what would Dre's offensive numbers look like if he was at Kentucky? Probably much better, but his rebounding might be a bit worse. Who did the best defensive player guard this year? Carlon and then Dre. Last year he might have been the 4th or even 5th option to defend.
     
  3. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I ran across a site yesterday called hoop-math.com, the guy who runs it won this Stat Geek Idol competition. I have never seen the data on his site broken down like it is on any other site, he takes the reported play by play data and figures out the % of shots players shoot at the rim, % that are jumpers, % that are 3's and whether they were assisted or not.

    Here is the comparison of Dre and Davis using his data.

    PlayerFGATS%%Shots at RimFG% at Rim%Assisted at Rim%Shots 2pt JumpersFG% 2pt Jumpers%Assisted 2pt Jumpers%Shots 3ptFG% 3pt%assisted 3ptFTA/FGAFT%
    Andre Roberson2590.56855%69%50%28%22%44%17%40%67%0.5762%
    Anthony Davis3210.65460%83%56%35%35%49%6%16%100%0.6270%

    I think the biggest thing that jumps out is Davis finishes at the rim at an amazing rate and shoots jumpers a little better.
     
  4. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I would bet that if Dre improved his mid-range game we'd see it translate to better performance around the rim. Teams are able to go Pack Line against him so he's always driving into way too much traffic.
     
  5. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    100% agree, I have said it about a million times, but like SHT not being able to drop dimes out of the post b/c nobody moved on offense, Dre didn't have wide open lanes to drive b/c everybody was standing around letting the D pack it in.
     
  6. SBG

    SBG Formerly known as EFNMB Club Member Junta Member

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    One thing I noticed about UK in the run in the tourney is that Davis has absolutely incredible body awareness and ridiculous vision. It seems like every time he blocks a shot or goes for a loose ball then it winds up UK's hands. If Dre improved on just that a bit more his D would be that much better.
     

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