Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by absinthe, Jan 22, 2014.
Great stuff guys! I'm hoping for a good showing of effort and execution from our Buffs. Our team is still learning their roles without Dinwiddie. XJ really needs to step up and become that 3rd scorer now. Booker is playing well, but he struggles on the road so far this year (shooting under 30%), lets hope that changes this week.
Scott will be Scott, and I hope he can get their bigs in foul trouble. That would really help our team out.
I don't see us keeping it without 10 points either, but Zona is bound for a bad game, why not against us? That's the silver lining hope I have.
SO, we got no chance eh? That's not what beer tells me.
I'm pretty friendly on Twitter with Miles Simon. I asked him if he gave the Buffs much of a chance. I think he was being fairly diplomatic when he said, it was an "uphill climb" for them.
I'd love to avenge the Chen game but it goes without saying that minus Spencer, this matchup is much tougher.
The problem with Arizona (or the good thing if you're an Arizona fan I guess) is that they're so good on defense that a bad game usually equates to meaning a bad offensive game, but for them they've got a defense that can cover up for it.
If you look at Oregon last year, they were an elite team in defensive efficiency but an average team on offense, and they won a lot of games. This year they're an elite team on offense but an average team on defense, so if they have an off night offensively they don't have the defense to cover themselves. They've got to virtually outscore opponents every night to win, and that's tough to do night in/night out.
A good defense can cover-up a lot of offensive deficiencies (#TadBall), Arizona has a unique combo this year, they've got a phenomenal offense and defense. And that defense can win a lot of games when the offense might not be clicking.
Every single team in the country would be an underdog in Tucson. Of course it's an uphill climb for our Buffs on Thursday.
Puncher's chance. Margin for error is razor thin.
You need to punch your friends and family in the face if they go to that wedding.
Average is charitable, they are turrible.
Wes is going to need to get going early for us to have a shot. For him, it's all about confidence - if he thinks he's playing well, he'll start to get more aggressive. If scott is down there getting doubled, wes very likely will be open down low. It's just a matter of getting him the ball.
XJ is also going to need to step up, but im not overly concerned about him. He has great games against great teams, and if he's not still hurting from his tendonitis, then he'll be fine.
The other people that end up playing (jHop, Talton, stalzer?) need to not make any dumb mistakes or commit any turnovers.
Good read guys!
If CU can limit the turnover's we have a shot. We cannot give UofA more possesions.
Is J-Hop ready to guard Nick Johnson? Spencer used to give him fits.
Can Scott get Tarczewski into foul trouble? Buffs need to soften that interior defense.
Will someone find a 3pt stroke on the road? Zona isn't likely to get beat in the paint with its frontcourt.
If the Buffs keep it close, can they deal with UA pressure defense down the stretch? Failure to break pressure lost the Chen game.
I could have added a bunch of other questions. As I said before, pretty much everything needs to break right for the Buffs in this one.
feels odd personally being focused more on ASU than Zona given our situation. Still, Zona will drop a couple regardless of the chatter. Crossing my fingers we show up to play.
CU opens as 15.5 point underdogs
All we can ask for is a chance. Lots of conferences dont even get a shot at the #1 team - no matter how bad they may end up losing.
missing spencer sucks so much for this game.
This game likely would have been a top 10 matchup. Bumped to ESPN1. Maybe even flexed an hour or two earlier. Would have been a pac-12 power showcase, odds around +5 for the Buffs. Amazing how things change in 2 weeks.
Not weird at all, that's a more winnable. Would I rather beat UofA, of course. But that's not so realistic.
Buffs need to get 1 win out of this road trip. That's why the focus is rightly on ASU for fans. But the team shouldn't be thinking beyond its next game.
And, dammit, if CU could pull the upset on Thursday it would send shockwaves around the country.
I know everyone likes to think we wouldn't have lost to UW/UCLA, we'll never know. But to your point, I don't think ESPN/ESPN2 usually switch predetermined games. I think there's contractual reasons in the first place (ACC gets X amount of games on the main network, P12 is getting it's money for it to be an ESPN2 game, etc)
We were 11 point favorites against USC and I thought that was too much (I was obviously wrong). Is USC closer to us than we are to UofA?
Bill Walton is calling the game so anything could happen. We at least know he'll make his partner uncomfortable.
As for what transpires on the court, CU has the only front court in the conference that can match/battle with Arizona's. This is somewhat of a neutralizer as it's pretty true AZ struggles to shoot from deep. They choose not to because they make all of the baskets at the rim (76.7% FG%, 3rd in nation). So you stop them there and you've got a chance. Stopping them there is difficult.
And then there's the scoring issue. Arizona has a tendency to not let teams do this and CU has had a tendency to shoot their way out of Arizona games. And run their way out of them, too. Last season for example:
January: 56% of offense from 3 or in transition (CU forces overtime we know the story)
February: 54% of offense from 3 or in transition (CU rolls)
March: 44% of offense from 3 or in transition (AZ wins with relative ease)
Shoot the ball well and the Buffs have a shot. Issue is I'm not sure the Buffs have a shot at having a shot (wrap your mind around that play on words)
USC is closer to Jackson St than CU.
I'm not sure if Joe Tess has ever done a P12 game, but do the laws of Joe Tess apply to basketball or just football?
Rumblin and I had that conversation at the game. Who wins on a neutral court - Jackson St or USC? I honestly think I have to go with Jackson St.
USC had some surprisingly good wins in the non-conference. I have no idea how they beat Xavier on a neutral court and won at Dayton.
that is the issue. only 2 of arizona's 18 opponents this year have finished with higher fg percentages than their season average. vast majority are far under their season averages. i saw that colorado shoots 31% from 3 this year and without dinwiddie is a 28% shooting team. arizona holds opponents to 28% from 3 as well. with dinwiddie you had a chance, without him, the combination of our interior size and length and our 3 point defense will just be too much. we can have an off offensive game and still win (have done that several times this year already).
i'm thinking a final score of like 68-55.
Yeah. It's a slim chance for CU on the road in this one. That's the fun of college basketball, though. Every team has a few nights a year when they can't seem to miss. Buffs need one of those to steal one here.
I do think we'll give you a fight in Boulder, though, after the Buffs have another month without Spencer under their belts.
Pachoops has a different memory of that AZ win in march than I do.
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