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Askia - what is wrong

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by jgisland, Jan 18, 2013.

  1. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    There has been a lot of talk about Askia lately not only on allbuffs but in articles like this one on ESPN.

    Basketball Prospectus' John Gasaway states somewhat correctly the following.

    Last season as a freshman, Booker came off the bench and functioned as a high-volume shooter. He didn't connect on many of those shots, but he was a freshman and did provide the proverbial jolt of energy when he came in the game.

    What's strange, though, is that Booker has now made the leap to being a high-volume shooter as a starter who leads his team in minutes -- even though his shooting accuracy is still very much a work in progress. Mind you, Booker has fared well from the perimeter, hitting 38 percent of his 3s. But in his career to date, most of his shots have been 2s, and the results there have been meager at best. (In the Buffs' controversial overtime loss at Arizona last week, Booker was 1-of-10 from inside the arc.) On a team with proven, effective quantities on offense like Andre Roberson and Spencer Dinwiddie, it's not entirely clear why Booker is on pace to launch something like 260 2-point shots this season. History suggests he may make only about 100 of those.


    What Gasaway needs to look at more is not only his two's but what kind of two's he is taking. Booker last year shot 34% of his shots at the rim, 33% were 2pt jumpers and 33% were 3's. This year the issue is that only 20% of his shots are at the rim and 45% of his shots are 2 point jumpers and 35% of his shots are 3's. So he is shooting less at what he is best at (getting to the rim and either making it or getting to the line) and more of what he is worst at (2 pt jumpers) where he is only shooting 32% year over year. Not going to the hoop has dramatically dropped his free throw rate. Last year he was getting to the line .4 times per FGA, this year he is only getting to the line .22 times per FGA.


    PlayerFGATS%%Shots at Rim
    FG% at Rim%Assisted at Rim%Shots 2pt Jumpers
    FG% 2pt Jumpers%Assisted 2pt Jumpers%Shots 3ptFG% 3pt%assisted 3ptFTA/FGA
    FT%
    Askia Booker 20132090.47920%63%38%45%32%0%35%36%65%0.271%
    Askia Booker 20122330.49934%47%38%33%32%20%33%37%61%0.3974%


    As Gasaway correctly states a lot of what Booker did last year was ok because he was a reserve coming off the bench and CU could live with his high volume and poor efficiency in short spurts. But this year he is taking 30% of the shots when he is on the floor where he only took 26% of the shots when he was on the floor last year. So his minutes have increased and his volume has increased but what is the worst is that he has increased the volume of shots where he is worst at, the 2 point jumper.

    Askia, please start taking the ball to the rack and get rid of the two point jumper......
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2013
    CVilleBuff, tante and mattrob like this.
  2. buff4bcs1985

    buff4bcs1985 Hail to the King

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    hes trying to do too much
     
  3. chitownbuff

    chitownbuff Club Member Club Member

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    I wouldn't mind seeing him come off the bench again. It would also solve the problem of continually determining who to start between Chen and XJ.
     
  4. mattrob

    mattrob Club Member Club Member

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    I think you're right on here. The biggest thing "wrong", from what I can see, is that he's being overused. He's much better off the bench for 20-25 minutes, where its OK that he's a one-man show. As a starter, the volume of shots he takes comes at the expense of better scoring options, and his lack of efficiency has a greater impact on the team. Similar to Dre, I just think he's been asked to do too much due to our lack of depth and experience.
     
  5. jwhite17

    jwhite17 Member

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    I totally agree. Ski needs to drive to the rack more. He isn't a good enough shooter to take all these off balance jump shots, very few players in the country can do it consistently. He should never be a first option on offense, especially on a team with very limited depth. I think our team would be most offensively efficient if Ski was 3rd or 4th option like last year.

    Unfortunately, it has been a perfect storm for Ski to be the biggest volume shooter on the team: Dinwiddie gets too passive in his role as PG sometimes passing to others, Dre is also very passive on offense, Scott is just a freshmen, and no one on the bench can contribute consistent offense.

    He will always be a streaky player, so he must focus on his strengths:

    1) Transistion game: He is one of the quickest guards in the country. He should be trying to run the opposing guards up and down the court everytime the opponent misses a shot home and away. That's his biggest strength, and he would wear the other guard down in Boulder, so in turn, he would help himself both offensively and defensively. Half court offense is not his strong suit at all (or for our team), and we should avoid it as much as possible.

    2) Creating his own shot: This is a blessing and a curse for him. He is one of the few players on the team that can create his own shot, and sometimes he thinks he can fake an opponent out and then finish the possession himself. He could really help his team if he would pass the ball when the defense collapses on him. I'm sure Roberson/Scott/XJ would get plently of good looks too.

    3) Confidence: Love it when he is hitting shots or hate it when he is not, Ski has always been a confident player, but he needs to have smart confidence. Since we don't have a true PG (Dinwiddie should be playing the wing), Dinwiddie is forced to play PG, and he gets too passive in that role.

    We can't change anything since we don't have a PG on the roster ready to contribute significant minutes, so Booker needs to stop being a chucker and create for his teammates. Booker is not a PG, but we need him to put himself and his teammates in a position to succeed in order for our team to have a chance to win on the road.

    Actually, I think a big issue is that Ski has ZERO competition for his starting spot (next year that changes). Boyle can't bench him because no one can replace his production on the bench.
     
  6. ZKobalt

    ZKobalt Well-Known Member

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    Looks so much like Nick Young, from the hair to his game. Take terrible shots because he thinks he can make them, doesn't play defense at all. So frustrating to watch a player like him.
     
  7. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    He definately needs to learn the art of the pass from time to time

    But, this team does not really pass the ball or have a high number of assist, so it could be the offensive philosophy as well
     
  8. shang

    shang Member

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    i gotta disagree w/ yo on that point, coach has been talking about it very publicly that they need to get there A/TO ratio's in line. Biggest problem I see is clearly ski is a great penetrator, but doesn't see anyone and he easily could have a ton of assists if only he would open up his eyes....
     
  9. WizzersGhost

    WizzersGhost Banned BANNED

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    Needs.More.Assists.

    Take the ball to the hoop, pull up and dish, instead of shooting that crappy little jumper!
     
  10. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    Agree, tunnel vision is a problem. With his ability to drive to the rim Ski would be perfect to run the pick and roll with Roberson or Scott.
     
  11. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Excellent post, jg
     
  12. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    This team seems to be built for the pick and roll. Just about every combo of starters it would seem to work well with with. They seem to have 1 of 2 problems continually when they actually try to run the pick and roll.

    1. they are outside the 3 point line giving the defense too much time to recover or have help side D rotate over and help

    or

    2. There is such terrible spacing that they roll right into a help defender. They need to iso on one side of of the court to create room to run it.


    Ski's on ball defense is actually pretty good, but you are spot on about the rest.
     
  13. Gold

    Gold Well-Known Member

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    He's being over shooting because other players are having a hard time creating shots. Last year, Brown was masterful at creating his own shot. Having seen it in person, I always came away impressed at Brown's ability to make a move and get separation for a decent look. Even when it didn't go in.

    Boyle recently pointed out that a 3rd of our shots against UW were bad/contested shots. That's when a guy has a hand in your face. Not good to take that many contested shots. Ski is a culprit of this, but is also aware that others on the team are not demanding the ball to be "the man" and is stepping into that role. Unfortunately, he's not making enough of them to keep this going in the right direction.
     
  14. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Both. Spacing has just looked completely out of whack and dysfunctional far too often.
     
  15. shang

    shang Member

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    also am i missing something here, last year, at least early on, we saw some back cutting w/ carlon, ski, spence or chen... and they were easy buckets... this year i don't recall seeing any of that, especially since we still have all 3 guards plus xj and dre.... just a thought
     
  16. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Active Member

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    They seemed lost on offense in the UW game. Askia Booker plays like a poor man's Ben Gordon. Would like to see more driving by Dinwiddie, or anyone for that matter.
     
  17. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    So I read this article from grantland.com on how volume shooters (Kobe is the prime example but Melo is also used) that don't necessarily shoot a high percentage from the field are getting assists in another way. Basically it is argued that such a high percentage of their misses are grabbed as offensive rebounds and lead to easy put backs that their low percentage shooting isn't actually all that hurtful.

    So that led me to think about Askia, maybe his misses aren't that bad, maybe CU is grabbing enough of his misses as offensive rebounds and getting easy put backs that it isn't so bad. Well I have run the numbers for conference play and it isn't good.

    MadeNo Off ReboundOff ReboundOff Reb into ptsTotal% of offensive rebounds% turned into points
    Three's812322520.00%8.00%
    At the rim5510119.09%0.00%
    2pt jumpers819723625.00%5.56%
    Total21361147220.83%
    5.56%


    CU is only grabbing 20.83 % of his misses and they are only turning 5.56% of those offensive rebounds into points. I think the biggest difference between guys like Kobe/Melo and Ski is that they are drawing such attention and help side defense, so it takes defenders out of rebounding position giving offensive re-bounders inside position. Ski isn't drawing that kind of attention so even when CU is able to grab his offensive boards defenders are still in position to defend and limit easy put backs.
     
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  18. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    yikes - man needs to remember he has a pull up jumper and that he can pass from inside the paint. Unless he starts doing that, he has to go to the bench.

    Interesting thought: who hurts our offense more, Adams or Ski? (obviously in very different ways)
     
  19. shang

    shang Member

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    nice catch... man i love your analysis... so true.... please ski, start dishing and you'll be a hero!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
     
  20. TDforTD

    TDforTD Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Nick Young tall doe. Booker reminds me of Devin Harris. Impossibly quick guard who isn't tall enough to play SG, but doesn't have real PG skills to lead the point. I don't like that type of player for a winning team. 6th man would be great, you can have them come off the bench and lead the scoring against other role players but as a starter, it's a scary mix and I don't think you'll ever win a title like that.
     
  21. shang

    shang Member

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    not sure if anyone is old enough, but who remembers the piston's "microwave"...vinnie johnson... a baylor alumi and one of the great 6th men in the NBA... on another note... ski had some great dishes last night against WSU... finally!!!! nice job, nice win...
     
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2013
  22. shang

    shang Member

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    also, this thought on ski.... tough to change spots on a leopard... he's always going to penetrate w/ abandon... let him,he's either going to score or land on the free throw line, plus it opens up the floor for us... just gotta work w/ him on whether to take those off balance crazy mid range jumpers or dish or to continue the drive and dish...last nite we saw that in the second half... couple of sweet dishes...
     
  23. GoBuffs!!

    GoBuffs!! Active Member

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    Last night's game, although he had some good plays, he still had a low FG% and took a lot of shots while playing 38! min (lead the team). I still like him more in the 6th man, where he can get the green light just about whenever.
     
  24. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I'm starting to like Ski in more of the PG role. When he's looking to set others up, especially with his drive & dish, he's a much more effective player.

    Tad needs to keep putting more of this responsibility on Ski. It will make him and the team better.
     
  25. BuffLife

    BuffLife New Member

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    Not old enough for that, but now I finally realize what George Karl was doing with JR Smith. Very streaky shooter, but didn't necessarily play great defense. I think he would be a great 6th man especially with our struggles so far with bench production. I think we have enough talent in the starting lineup that when they get tired Ski can come in and do his thing and hopefully the offense wouldn't miss a beat. XJ obviously isn't as high volume of scorer as Ski, but I'm sure he could fill the void for him. Also, he could create more match up problems for opposing defenses with his height and athletic ability. The only question in my mind is if Ski (who's been in a slump since the beginning of the year) will take it very negatively and lose his confidence for good. Sorry I'm just annoyed in how we can't score once our starters leave the court.
     
  26. shang

    shang Member

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    first, you gotta pull up old tape of the pistons NBA championship years w/ thomas, dumars, rodman and co.... in for a great treat... second, totally agree w/ you on all points and concern that if they brought ski off the bench, would he, could he honor the fact that it's what may be best for the team... as chen has agreed to... and i like your point about XJ.... he can and will cause serious match up problems... l like his assertiveness, not the smoothest or prettiest... but down right rough and in your face...he is going to be a monster in the coming years, especially if he hits the weights....
     

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