Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by rolandftw, Sep 11, 2013.
I've been doing some research and talking to some bball handicappers into coaching elements and their effect on point spreads. This athlon list is pretty accurate with what I've come back with.
The Pac-12 is viewed as having 3 "tiers" of coaches (this is in game coaching ability)
Pachoops and I actually had this argument yesterday. I wish I would have known that Athlon had updated their list. The biggest thing to me is that K is WAY too low. I know Utah's been bad, but they've been a hard team to beat even with their dismal talent. I think he's doing a damn good job there and honestly, if it were me hiring the coach, I'd rather have him than Alford.
As for Tad, I can see him fourth. That's where the Sporting News had him as well. While I personally disagree, I can't fully argue it either. Altman does have a Sweet 16 - something Tad doesn't. Altman's also landed a no brainer 5* recruit (Artis) while Tad hasn't yet. I think before he fully gets the respect he deserves nationally, he needs one of those two things (and I think he'll get them in this upcoming season and the 2015 recruiting class).
Handicappers don't think very highly of Krystkowiak as an in-game coach (no mind the talent level). He was listed around 9 or 10 by everybody I talked to. He's only routinely ahead of Dawkins and Robinson.
Mind you this is all in game coaching I'm referencing, not recruiting or building a program.
Boyle has a pretty good record versus those tier one coaches.
Seems odd that Miller is in the top tier wrt in-game coaching. I always thot his forte was recruiting.
I don't take much issue with Athlon's list. I'd bump K over Dawkins and Robinson, but other than that I think it's splitting hairs.
Tad shall roll. That is all.
I don't buy Sean Miller as the number one in game coach. That seems crazy to me. I'd take Monty as my in game coach over just about anybody.
Artis was a 4 star recruit, by all three of the major scouting services. His ranking was around the same level as Josh Scott. Now, they did land Jabari Brown, who I think was a consensus 5 star recruit, but he transferred to Mizzou after his freshman year. Oregon did have a trip to the Sweet 16, and they deserve credit for that. I'm a big believer that what you do in the tournament ultimately is what determines how people perceive you as a coach.
I can live with Boyle being at #4. It's just the explanation for where Colorado is, that is kinda lame and halfa**ed.
How did CU get "lucky" with the change in conferences? Granted, I know if they weren't in the Pac 12, they would not have landed Xavier Johnson. They might not have landed Spencer Dinwiddie. But an improved team would have helped them in recruiting, had they stayed in the Big XII. "Luck," really has next to nothing to do with it, unless you believe the Pac-12 is a much easier conference then the Big-12 (true in Colorado's first year in the conference, not as much last year or probably this coming season).
In fact, with Texas sucking recently and apparently pissing off nearly every HS school coach in the state, you could make the argument that staying in the Big XII would have enabled CU to get premier talent in the state.
Not sure Krystkowiak deserves to be THAT much higher. I'd place him around 9th in the current standings for the time being and bump Dawkins and Robinson down. Yeah, he's put some fight in Utah. It was also unlikely Utah was going to stay THAT bad as they were a couple years ago.
You are correct. For some reason, in my head, Artis was a top 20 guy.
I really don't understand the love for Altman.....Boyle's beat him what 3 of 4 times they matched up
First off, I think Tad Boyle is easily a Top 3 coach in the Pac-12. He's great, and his best is still ahead. My Top 3 include Boyle, Montgomery and Romar FWIW...
Miller might be Top 4, but barely...
I suppose I should clarify a little.
Some people think highly of certain Pac coaches. Others don't. That's fine.
Anyway, it amazes me how little respect Romar gets. I love it. Hope it stays that way.
Now I'm hearing about the $60-80 million UW basketball renovations in the near future. If ever a Husky coach deserved the upgrade it's Romar. Can't think of another coach I'd rather play for. And with the additions of Blackwell and Upshaw our Bigs are looking better the next couple of years... I can't wait to see the reaction from people when UW finishes better than projected (hopefully) in the near future. Not saying they're great or the best, but that they are underrated. As if it's a surprise that UW could be good when they've won 4/5 shares of the past 5 Pac championships... (their best ever run BTW despite some of Romar's weaker teams in the past decade).
Discount Romar. Please. I love it. He'll just keep putting out an NBA player or two yearly for the foreseeable future. He develops talent well. UW will never be UCLA or Kansas. But as long as Romar is there they'll be competing... and going to the tourney more often than not...
Athlon is smoking stuff that's not yet legal in Colorado or Washington.
Would love to see a huge rivalry develop between our basketball squads if possible, since we're both new to the BBall side of things over the past decade or so...
Where does Tad rank on designing inbound plays?
George Karl and Tad skipped that class.
Romar is the hardest coach in the conference to rank for me. He's been a great coach for years, but the last two years have been ugly. Losing Aaron Gordon hurts. So right now, I have him around the middle of the pack. That said, I could easily see him rocketing up to the top again in no time. The question is - is the current phase a slump or a downward trend?
I agree the last two years were ugly. It's kind of hard to believe they won the Pac outright with the squad two years ago. I don't think most 'Buff fans have any idea of what a typical Romar squad is like. The past two years were really not characteristic. That said, I'm not sure how one could say Romar is a middle of the Pac coach. I don't think any of the existing Pac coaches have proven a better ability to develop the recruits into college and NBA talent.
I think what caused problems was that Romar went after higher rated recruits recently. We got Wroten, and just missed on a few, key 5* guys. Remember Terrence Ross and Terrence Jones? Jones initially chose UW but ultimately went to Kentucky under Callipari. He was rated much higher than Ross was as an athlete. Over two years in college, Ross developed and shot ahead of Jones in the NBA draft. I think Jones would have been drafted higher had he stayed at Washington.
Romar is at his best when he's getting the 4* prospects with chips on their shoulders. Guys who want to run the other team out of the gym. I think with the past recruiting class and moving forward we're seeing Romar get back to his roots. The recruiting staff and assistants have been upgraded and are getting after it again. The incoming guys look to be a great nucleus again.
I think the whiff on Gordon is directing Romar back to his roots. All that said, Romar averages at least one NBA guy per year. And some of these guys made the NBA only because of their development in college under Romar. Anyway, again, I hope everybody keeps underestimating Romar. He'll just continue to do what he's done for years. Washington may very well end up in the middle of the Pac, but I wouldn't expect them to be there for long if it occurs. They should be near the top as long as Romar as at the helm, at least IMO.
BTW. Glad to see Nate Robinson on the Nuggets. He's one of my all-time favorite Huskies. He's as big a prankster as there is in the NBA. Keep an eye out for him, great guy and player.
My personal belief is that Romar is #2 behind Montgomery, but it's fair to put him at #5 when he's in danger of being a victim of his own success and getting fired after this season.
I understand why people would rate him middle of the Pac. I love it.
FWIW there is ZERO percent chance that Romar would be fired after the season. None. Even a 10 win season and he's safe. A firing of Boyle would be just as likely, and that's just not happening.
If anything i think UW has learned it needs to support Romar better. I've heard rumblings of how BBall is going to get the goods now that football has been renovated. It's because of what Romar has done, not despite him.
Romar is the best thing to happen to Husky basketball since "Hec Edmundson". Thinking his job is in any jeopardy is foolish. If you've heard that from somebody that person is not well educated or informed.
Not two years removed from a Pac-12 regular season championship. He survived that two year rough patch in '06/'07-'07/'08...he can do it again. Pressure is definitely going to be on him in a big way if this ends up being another mediocre year though.
Not doubting the pressure is on if UW misses the Dance again. Romar did set the bar at getting to the Dance being an acceptable season for UW. It's expected yearly now.
Pretty sweet IMO. 10 years ago it was a once per decade type of thing.
UW is in big time rebuilding mode right now. The best PG (Nigel Williams-Goss) hasn't even played yet. Luckily Blackwell is eligible this year, and Upshaw is eligible next year. The front court should be adequate for the time being. Maybe not a Brockman type adequate, but as good as its been lately. A battle tested Andrews helps as well. UW may not be as talented as they have been recently, but I think they'll be a much better team, if that makes sense.
If there was ever a coach at UW I was not worried about, besides Don James, it's Romar. I have no doubt that UW will be on the uptick soon. Romar deserves the new facilities upgrade that's coming. I think by the time it's finished UW will have fewer down seasons. By down seasons I mean years where we miss the Dance.
UW will never be UCLA. Or Arizona. Or Kansas or Kentucky.
It's a football school first, but with a basketball program that can also be profitable. Romar will be fine. If I had a kid who was a national recruit there would not be a more trustworthy coach to entrust my child's development to. I know I'm full of Homerism here but I've never had more respect for a coach in any sport in any league than I have for Romar. It is what it is.
Back to the point. Tad Boyle at #4 is insulting. He's easily a Top Tier coach in the Pac. By Top Tier I mean Top 3.
With all due respect, Romar is as well.
I'd send my kid to Boyle or Romar or Montgomery in a heartbeat over Miller or the mess that is UCLA. The Pac will remain a weak conference regardless of what other schools do until UCLA and Arizona are national powers again. That sucks, but neither school has a top flight coach. Romar or Boyle at UCLA or Arizona would be lethal.
I think Romar should be kept as well. Way too much of a tendency to pull the trigger these days at the slightest sign of turbulence. As good of a program as Romar has established, Washington basketball isn't above a down year or two on occasion. We're quite likely going to be in the same boat with Tad at certain points if we're fortunate enough to have him stick around for a decade +
I was really high Romar a few years ago and would always pick them to win a game or two in the dance. I have cooled off a bit since we have joined the PAC.
I expect down years from time to time and they don't faze me much so long as they don't become the new normal.
Romar's switch to a high post offense this year will make him or break him.
Romar, Altman, MM, have been coaching for a long time.....Boyle is in the early part of his career. i like Romar OK, Altman not really sure about but wasn't wowed when UO hired him...nice job at Creighton and fired at KSU before that. McDermott who sucked at ISU is winning at Creighton too. is this the best check Phil can write with a new gym. my UO buddy was telling me they had Few for sure.....but, Ernie had outstayed his time. i don't really like Montgomery that much so i can't be objective. maybe it's because he snubbed his nose at the CU job at least once. maybe twice. i remember his Stanford teams as underachieving in the NCAA and felt overrated a lot to me. i could be wrong. i like one of his teams with Brevin Knight in the late 90's. not exactly blowing me away at Cal either.
i'll take Tad at 4 with a bullet. as Marius said to Sulla, the old sun sets and the new sun rises. something like that.
I finally got a chance to read through this, and can't argue with the rankings too much. The one things that does stand out to me is Miller. He's a good coach, but this feels like a ranking of the coach of the best program, not the best coach. That said, I'm not sure anyone else in the conference is really deserving of being a clear #1 either. To me, there's a top-5 of Miller, Boyle, Altman, Romar and Montgomery that are pretty interchangeable. Beyond that, I think there's a noticeable drop to Alford. Where you rank the top-5 probably depends on what you value most: in-game coaching, recruiting, program building, player development, etc.
Found the national list. Boyle checks in at #31.
Brandon Roy played under Romar to didn't he?
Don't have a problem with Tad at #4. Keep winning and it'll go higher. Altman is ranked ahead of him in part because of the job he did at Creighton. Oregon has also finished higher in the regular season standings both years CU has been in the PAC, and won the PAC tourney last season.
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