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Before it gets better does the darkness gets bigger?

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by tante, Mar 13, 2015.

  1. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    I wanted to look back on the season and normalize everything to a per minute basis. I wanted to look at what they did over the season versus what they did in the last 10 games. I want to see if they showed any measurable change in their statistics. I added Josh Fortune's last season at Providence so you can see how he measures up against our guys this year.

    RPM = Rebounds per minute
    APM = assists per minute
    TPM = turnovers per minute
    PPM = points per minute

    PlayerRPMRPM/10APMAPM/10TPMTPM/10PPMPPM/10
    Booker.1.1.1.08.07.06.57.49
    XJ.23.29.02.03.07.08.42.38
    Scott.26.3.03.03.03.04.45.49
    Talton.07.07.07.07.06.06.18.26
    Hopkins.15.25.06.04.08.12.28.22
    Thomas.14.1.05.03.06.03.26.33
    Gordon.26.21.04.04.04.04.25.19
    Fletcher.14.17.05.06.07.09.28.33
    Dom.08.06.07.09.07.07.24.26
    Miller.25.14.010.08.08.32.27
    Fortune (2014).09.07.06.05.05.07.25.32

    So a couple of key things really stand out:
    1 - as a team we are terrible sharing the ball
    2 - we are probably putting too much on Fortune's shoulder's for next year, the offense needs to run through XJ and Scott, who are proven.
    3 - our sophomores really haven't turned the corner as much as we would like to believe. We had a few outlier games that gave us home, but they all need to take some major strides
    4 - Talton is really hurting us statistically across the board
    5 - Thomas, needs to improve his rebounding numbers.


    Next I want to look at KPI and see if they increased or decreased from 2014 from 2015.

    TS% (Total Shooting Percentage): The sum of a player's field goal, free throw and three-point percentage.
    eFG% (Effective Field Goal Percentage): A measurement of efficiency as a shooter in all field goal attempts with three-point attempts weighted fairly.
    ORB% (Offensive Rebound Percentage)
    DRB% (Defensive Rebound Percentage)
    TRB% (Total Rebound Percentage)
    AST% (Assist Percentage)
    TOV% (Turnover Percentage)
    STL% (Steal Percentage)
    BLK% (Block Percentage)
    USG% (Usage Percentage): A measurement of the percentage of plays utilized by a player while he is in the game
    PPS (Points Per Shot)
    ORtg (Offensive Rating): The number of points a player produces per 100 possessions
    DRtg (Defensive Rating): The number of points a player allows per 100 possessions
    PER: An efficiency statistic

    PlayerTS%eFG%ORB%DRB%TRB%AST%TOV%STL%BLK%USG%PPSORtgDRtgPER
    Askia Booker20152015201420142014201520152015201520152015201520142015
    Tre'Shaun Fletcher20152015201420142014201520142014201420142015201420142015
    Wesley Gordon20152015201520152015201520152014201520142015201520142015
    Jaron Hopkins20152015201420152015201520142015201520152015201520152015
    Xavier Johnson20142014201520152015201420142014201520152014201420142014
    Josh Scott20152015201520142014201520152014201520142015201520142015
    Xavier Talton20142014201420142014201420142015201420142014201420142014
    Dustin Thomas20152015201420142014201520152015201520142015201520152015


    So what this table tells us if a player had higher numbers in 2014 or 2015. It doesn't weigh the numbers so a huge difference like a 20 point drop in offensive ratings is measured the same as a .1% drop in rebound percentage. I just want to trend across years the kpi.

    So what does this tell us:

    1 - Both XJ and XT regressed this past year, especially Talton, he was worse almost across the board.
    2 - As a team, we were much worse defensively this year than we were in 2014. The team was not playing Tadball
    3 - our guards did a much worse job rebounding this year than last year.

    So for the most part we were an improved offensive team, we shot the ball better, we had more assists and a higher offensive rating, but it came at a cost on the defensive side of the ball. I think a summer in Boulder will really help the team focus and get better defensively (maybe we can see some zone at times next year), but I am still very worried about our team next year. We are putting a lot of our fortunes in Josh and Dom and I'm not sure they can carry the load. I think we really need a transfer guard or two on the team to elevate our backcourt to match the play of our frontcourt. If this costs us two players on the list above, then Tad has some difficult conversations in his future. As far as I can tell, the only guy we can't lose is Scott and when he leaves next year we may be in serious trouble.
     
    Last edited: Mar 13, 2015
  2. goalline

    goalline Club Member Club Member

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    rep stick dry - someone please help out. Can't really argue with your conclusions. How do we get more out of Talton? Or should someone else get his minutes?
     
  3. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Having trouble figuring out your tables, but that might just be my fault.
     
  4. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    is it a viewing issue, or a comprehension issue? Could I make the headings more clear or something?
     
  5. Highlander

    Highlander Club Member Club Member

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    TLDR

    Thanks for the effort, though.
     
  6. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Good stuff Tante. Agreed that we need to work on the D next year - it's our calling card and we need to stick to it.
     
  7. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    My main confusion is Fortune being included on that first table. HUH?

    Also, impressive Wes managed to improve despite that horrible slump he was in for a while.
     
  8. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

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    thanks let me edit that. I wanted to show what his stats were his last year at Providence, so people can get a taste for how he stacks up.
     
  9. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Rep

    A lot of good effort certainly a valid look at the team.

    Your observations are good as well, we don't share the ball well. Another way to say that is that our players don't make each other better well.

    Snow's comment about Wes is a good observation. A big key for us next year could be Wes stepping up his game, I don't think he is even close to his ceiling yet.

    On the other hand the second chart shows what many have been saying, XT took a big step backwards this season. Difference between him and Wes to me is that I don't think he has much potential growth in him, he maxed out last year and this season opponents knew his weaknesses and took advantage. Hope I'm wrong.
     
  10. Lukeasaurus

    Lukeasaurus Well-Known Member

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    Rep sent. I'm hoping Dom is the answer, maybe another year to get more comfortable and grow physically will go a long way.
     
  11. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    A case of lost identity.

    There always seems to be a team or two that makes a tourney run using lesser talent in a definite and disciplined system. I'm thinking specifically of teams like VCU, Wichita State, and even the early 2000's Wisconsin teams (And I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting). Dangerous, tough teams that go farther than expected.

    Unfortunately, talent almost always takes the title. And here we are kinda stuck in no-man's land. TB and company brought in kids who were more sought after, more talented. Yet we appear to have forgotten who we are.

    Do we break one way or the other next year? Dunno. I do find it interesting that the staff are recruiting players we think are "outliers". It would also seems that these are more of a TB type player, which might mean one of the assistants may have lost the hc's confidence and we may see a change.

    Just opining on a Sunday morning.
     
  12. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    If the team defends, rebounds and takes care of the ball like Tad wants, next year's team will be in the tournament. Whether or not it advances or can go on a run will come down to offensive firepower. We haven't had enough firepower to stay with the top 25 type teams when they were fired up and defending.
     

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