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Big XII not expanding...for now.

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by jobuff, Jul 20, 2015.

  1. jobuff

    jobuff Club Member Club Member

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  2. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Cincinnati is obvious to me.

    CSU isn't a bad option with the new stadium coming.... probably a Tier 2 option for the Big 12.
     
  3. jobuff

    jobuff Club Member Club Member

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    Agree with both. The stadium may help CSU. The only thing that still hurts them is their 20k/game attendance (or some number like that if I recall).
     
  4. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    The problem they have is that there is no one they could add within a non-flyover geography that would actually enhance the quality of the product or increase revenues.
     
  5. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    If there was anyone that would enhance them in terms of revenue they would already be after them.

    Boise has a small TV market, doesn't draw great TV numbers from non Boise fans and they don't draw P5 crowds at home.

    http://www.broncosports.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2014-2015/teamcume.html

    For a program that has been as successful on the field as they have to draw an average of 32K at home would indicate that they don't have a huge potential for growth in the near future.

    Cincinnati surprisingly to me isn't a great deal attendancewise either but they do offer a major metropolitan TV market.

    http://riverfrontball.com/2013/10/15/cincinnati-bearcats-football-attendance/

    CSU has been discussed ad nauseum. Stadium or no they could double their attendance and still be in the lower end of P5 attendance. The numbers just don't work.
     
  6. cmgoods

    cmgoods Olympic Sports Mod Club Member

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    I think BYU would work, but they would probably have to play some sports on Sunday and get rid of their network.
     
  7. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    State populations is the real issue for the Big 12. Texas is the only state that appears in the Top half of US states for population. And there's nothing from the G5 schools that connects to TX-OK-KS in the population Top 25 except for Tulane (#25) and CSU (#22). Not exactly gonna move the needle by adding those. http://www.infoplease.com/us/states/population-by-rank.html

    So do they expand through a C-USA approach by compounding the WVU mistake? Truth is that fans in the Big 8/ SWC region like to go to road games but hate expensive travel by plane. NU fans are not happy with the trips to Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State, etc.
     
  8. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    BYU financially would fit the bill.

    http://www.cougarcorner.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=18365



    They get good attendance (even not having a great home schedule) and they have a solid TV audience nationally with the LDS connection. They also seem to travel pretty well.

    The Sunday games issue is a big one. Some potential conference mates may also not want to deal with their publicized lack of academic freedom and their connection to certain social positions.
     
  9. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Honestly, it's more about flying into Provo for the Big 12 members. Allegiant Airlines or a charter. Huge price tag for the non-revenue sports.
     
  10. hokiehead

    hokiehead Gobbler on the Mountain Club Member

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    You really think that's the main facfor? Provo < 1 hour from SLC. same drive as from Roanoke airport to VT campus.

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk
     
  11. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    That issue exist for a number of "potential" additions. Boise doesn't have a lot of direct flights from Texas.

    Provo is only about 50 miles from the SLC airport which is less than Ft. Collins from DIA.

    Point still stands though for each of the schools mentioned. It's one thing to fly your football or basketball team or even WBB teams to a revenue producing event. It's a different thing when the non-revenue sports end up on a plane instead of a bus or a van. Can make a big difference in the financial outlook.

    Still though the biggest factor is going to be how much revenue does a school present to the conference with the major revenue producing sports. No the B12 would not care in the least about flying teams to South Bend for their sports if they could add Notre Dame TV ratings to their TV contract negotiations and know that when they go to South Bend their share is going to be big and when they play ND at home they are likely to have the potential to sell 20,000 visitors tickets.
     
  12. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    BYU and UCF.
     
  13. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Yes. You've got to understand the Big 12.

    You've got former Big 8 members that used to travel 5k-15k strong to go to games at KU, KSU, NU, ISU, MU, OU, OSU and CU. Same thing for the former SWC members who did that among UT, aTm, TTU, BU, TCU, SMU, UH, Arkansas and Rice. Regional, low-cost road trips that fans could drive. That was the culture. The only thing holding the Big 12 together right now is that the Texas and Oklahoma schools are trying to hold onto that regionality with OU and UT being the key to everything (the rest of the conference doesn't really matter in terms of what they want, but KU, KSU and ISU like the drive trips).

    fyi - It was the bullying and drama from the Texas schools and their Oklahoma lieges that caused NU and MU to leave. CU never really fit that culture and needed to leave for a better fit. aTm was sick of playing second fiddle to UT.

    Anyway, their fans won't fly to Provo and they know it would be a problem.
     
  14. hokiehead

    hokiehead Gobbler on the Mountain Club Member

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    When teams visit CU, what airport is commonly used?

    Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk
     
  15. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    I'm a big fan of B12 expansion if that is what keeps the Longhorns and their concubines out of the Pac 12.

    Central Florida gets everyone in the old neighborhood another reason to visit The Mouse.
    Add USF for a travel partner and call it a day.
     
  16. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    See my edit. CU was the outlier and a bad travel destination. We also were considered terrible travelers.
     
  17. SD Buff

    SD Buff Club Member Club Member

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    I was told it will be Houston and Cincinnati when/if they expand. I know Houston doesn't make any sense, but this is fairly well sourced. UCF has been begging, but they would be a distant third.

    from phone
     
  18. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Travel partner for WVU and a regional callback to the SWC that would make a statehouse case if left behind.

    Makes sense -- except for having to do a weird split for North/South within the state of Oklahoma.

    P.S. If things ever fell apart and the Pac-12 needed to go to 16, having UH positioned as a P5 already makes for a much better choice than BU, TCU or TTU if another TX team had to come as a package deal with UT.
     
  19. FlatironsBuff

    FlatironsBuff Club Member Club Member

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    You guys are really trying to make Mrs. Sacky a widow, aren't you? I can see the vein throbbing on his forehead from Castle Rock.
     
  20. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Believe me, if the money is right, some elder or high chief of the Mormon Church will have a discussion directly with God and He'll tell them it's ok to play on Sundays.
     
  21. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    And yeah... **** all this talk about UT in the P12. Just stop it. Now.
     
  22. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Yeah, before you know it they will be building a new Dillard's in Longmont.



    You are right though, there is no reason for the PAC to add UT or anyone else, nobody can force them to, so it shouldn't be something that keeps coming up over and over like it's inevitable. The PAC is to good a conference to add a conference killer like the Whore-ens.
     
  23. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    :sucks:
     
  24. hokiehead

    hokiehead Gobbler on the Mountain Club Member

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    not trying to argue here -- I guess I just can't make myself see things from an "old school Big 8" POV. Two reasons that the explanation of "commute time/distance from major airport to campus" doesn't seem to fit as the primary reason to exclude BYU from the XII:

    1. When I look at the Big 8 schools still in the XII and consider what airport is most likely used to access the school (airport was determined through searching each school's travel page), here's what I get (driving times courtesy of google.maps):

    Iowa Fucjking State, Des Moines International, 43 minute drive
    Kansas, Kansas City Intl, 49
    KSU, Kansas City Intl, 109
    Oklahoma, Will Rogers, 34
    Oklahoma State, Will Rogers, 70

    compare to BYU, SLC, 52 minutes. That's less than the mean commute of the Big 8 schools still in the XII. And Utah is more scenic than the three states listed above.

    2. if I believe only 10% of what is posted on Allbuffs (or Landthieves) about Texas bullying, none of those schools have a say in expansion as the decision is really all being made by the Longhorns.
     
  25. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    The point is that they don't fly to those schools -- or complain about when they have to.

    The Big 12 was set up so that the Texas and Oklahoma schools played 5 games against opponents in TX and OK every year. Then, they would have 3 games against the North and another 3 against non-conference opponents. They all scheduled the non-con so that they played 3 home games out of the 4 (by playing smaller schools from TX) and usually would schedule the road game as a return trip against a team like Houston, Rice or SMU. Basically, they'd set it up so that their fans could drive to a minimum of 9 games a year (7 home games + at least 2 road division games within TX or OK). Usually it would be 10. That is a huge driving force and something they are reluctant to move away from.

    Adding BYU is a non-drive geography that also increases travel costs for the money losing programs within the ADs.
     
  26. 89BUFF89

    89BUFF89 Well-Known Member

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    UT = Poison, stay away....
     
  27. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    A couple of things you are missing here from Niks point that are important.

    None of these schools are particularly convenient to airports but every one of these schools can be reached from the Texas and Oklahoma schools within a good days drive in the RV. Fans take off on a Friday morning early, get to the area of the stadium, spend the night partying it up with the other fans who made the trip. They then go to the game on Saturday either return Saturday night or Sunday morning. Others make the drive and stay at hotels that are popular with visiting fans.

    Utah is much more scenic but it also at least another full day of travel driving.

    Going along with this your non-revenue sports can all make league events by bus or van, much cheaper than flying. The cost difference gets even bigger when they schedule visits to two or three schools on the same trip.
     
  28. sweaty teets

    sweaty teets Club Member Club Member

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    Wow, all this analysis and not a single mosquito, humidity or obesity joke to be found.

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
     
  29. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    The good news is that most UT fans don't even want to be part of the P12. And those who do fully expect that UT would sit at the head of the table.

    Nik is correct about the tailgate culture up and down I35. B12 fans in Oklahoma and Texas want a drivable road game to complement their 6 or 7 home game slate.

    UT will travel big time each season. This year it's Notre Dame. In prior years it's been UCLA or Ohio State. The attendance for the big roady could be 5-7K.

    The in-conference roadies in the B12 are much better attended, where 20-25K show up to help fill up their fancy big stadiums.

    The way Texas sees it, they have what want now. 7 home games, easy day trips to Waco or Ft Worth of Stillwater, the OU RRS at the Cotton Bowl and a glamorous destination each year to please their jet-set fans.

    The prospect of road trips to Pullman, Corvallis, and basically to every other P12 location outside of USC/UCLA with late TV times does not energize the fan base the way it does for CU fans.

    Texas demands the inclusion of OU and two or three other lesser regional concubines to keep their homebody fans happy and to preserve their brand.

    If they do end up in another conference, the preference is to raid the ACC, keep east coast/central time zone TV spots and play godfather.

    For these reasons, it's just silly to invite UT to the Pac if they don't even want to come. They'll just demand the impossible and CU will end up as second fiddle in an Eastern division of the P12 or in crappy pod with bad TV spots. It just isn't worth the money.
     
    Last edited: Jul 21, 2015
  30. MtnBuff

    MtnBuff Not allowed in Barzil 2 Club Member

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    Sometimes they are implied.
     

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