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Brooks: Buffs Hoping Post-Wyoming Layoff Pays Off

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by RSSBot, Dec 18, 2011.

  1. RSSBot

    RSSBot News Junkie

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    Category: Men's Basketball

    Some Buffs like freshman guard Askia Booker want the ugly memory of their 65-54 loss against Wyoming kept fresh, reminding how it felt to be kicked around for a half on their home court.

    Originally posted by CUBuffs.com
    Click here to view the article.
     
  2. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Very good article by Brooks. There's a glaring difference between how Tomlinson and Ski deal with a loss. Also, Boyle uses Krause's letter grades system for evaluating each player for each game. Anyone on here familiar with Krause?
     
  3. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Not familiar at all, it took me a few mnutes of googling to figure out this wasn't the former chicago bulls gm jerry krause. I like that boyle is evaluating players using tempo free stats (rebounds per minute was mentioned). I am very interested in how this letter grading of players works, i am going to do some research and see if i can figure out how they are doing this.

    I have said this before and will continue to, BG Brooks does a great job on cubuffs.com
     
  4. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I have done some research (this included trolling Gonzaga and Eastern Washington message boards and diving deep in the internet archives) to find anything on Jerry Krause's evaluation method that Tad is using, I actually found something and it appears to be a simplified method of a plus minus.

    Here is the formula:

    It is called the "individual efficiency rating"

    IER =[Points scored + 2(rebounds) + 2(assists) +2(recoveries) +2(zag plays)]/[(Fields goals missed) +2(ft's missed) + (personal fouls) +2(turnovers)]

    A+3.0 and above
    A2.8-2.99
    A-2.60-2.79
    B+2.40-2.59
    B+2.20-2.39
    B-2.00-2.19
    C+1.80-1.99
    C+1.60-1.79
    C-1.40-1.59
    D1.00-1.39



    Zag plays are defined as hustle plays, defensive charges and great offensive or defensive plays. Recoveries aren't defined, but I would imagine that is getting a steal, a loose ball or saving a ball from going out. It also states that these two methods can be left out and tailored per team. If you look at these numbers being applied in history to NBA players it is kind of scary, this article was written in 2008, but Ben Wallace has the highest career IER. Some of the other names on the list are ok, but this doesn't pass the eye test.

    I ran the numbers on the Wyoming game (below) to how they match up with Win Shares and Adjusted +/-, my impression off the bat is that this isn't a great evaluation metric. Win Shares is a way better metric, it actually weights these stats, adjusts for opponents and credits marginal performance of an overall game. Adjusted +/- obviously isn't a complete metric as it only evaluates offense, but that is being worked on to include defense and I can tell you hands down that will be a better metric than the IER because it includes tempo free stats. I get why people like this, assigning letter grades to the numbers makes it easy to comprehend, but it would be just as easy to assign letter grades to Win Shares or Adjusted +/-. That being said, I will probably start including these numbers to see how these guys are grading out using Boyle's evaluation method.


    Wyoming Game Grades
    Spencer DinWiddieA+
    Andre RobersonC+
    Carlon BrownC+
    Austin DufaultF
    Nate TomlinsonD
    Askia BookerD
    Shane Harris-TunksC+
    Damiene CainC+
    Jeremy AdamsF
    Sabatino ChenB-
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2011
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  5. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Ymssr.
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I got him. Amazing stuff.

    We should figure out a way to get jgisland a meeting with CU coaches.
     
  7. shang

    shang Member

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    Agreed, Brooks is excellent in his coverage....and your research on Krause's system is amazing. I heard of it a few years back when I was following Matt Bouldin( from Thunder Ridge HS) who played for Gonzaga, and some of the guys on the Zag forums would talk about his crazy high grades in the Krause analysis. And you're right, for some folks, seeing letter grades is easier as opposed to a slew of numbers and figuring what the cutoffs are from poor to excellent play. Do you have it computerized, meaning just enter the data and it spits out the grades/numbers? I'd be interested seeing each game and then a current running total.... as if you ain't busy enough, lol.....
     
  8. shang

    shang Member

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    that's a great idea.....if you can get it to Boyle, he would eat this stuff up...I remember he used to have one of his assistants at UNC keep track of deflections that led to steals, the logic being that many times the player awarded the steal stat did not originally generate it. Also if not Boyle, Coach P would be the man to approach as he is a degreed Physicist! Let us know how it goes....
     
  9. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    ymssr. REP THIS MAN.

    And The Mayor is gonna be our MVP this year :nod:. ​If only because he will be taking Tomlinson's minutes...
     
  10. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Yeah I am going to run the numbers for the earlier games this season today, this isn't too bad to do, I setup excel to spit out the grades once I import the box scores. The people over on the Gonzaga forum don't seem to love this evaluation method, saying how Adam Morrison and John Stockton didn't fare very well using this method.
     
  11. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Well, it doesn't give you points for running the offense. Plus, I've never understood how Basketball defines an "assist" cause sometimes it won't count pretty obvious assists.
     
  12. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    one player at B or better.

    Austin Dufault: F
     
  13. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Only one player DESERVED a B or better for Wyoming. Spencer was the man.
     
  14. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    You better show some respect. You may call him "The Mayor." However, informally, Mr. Dinwiddie is acceptable.
     
  15. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I am going to add these into that Win Shares/Adjusted +/- Sticky Thread and update through out the season, but here it is as well season to date.

    PlayerFt.LewisWichita St.MarylandW. MichiganAir ForceGeorgiaCSUFresno StWyoming
    Nate TomlinsonA-DC+A+A+FBA+D
    Andre RobersonA+CA+CA+A+DA+C+
    Spencer DinWiddieC+A+FA+DA+B-B-A+
    Austin DufaultA+A+A+A+B-FBCF
    Carlon BrownDB+CAB-B-DDC+
    Askia BookerC+A+B-C+CA+DFD
    Jeremy AdamsDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPFC+BF
    Shane Harris-TunksFDBC+DDC+B+C+
    Sabatino ChenBA+B+DFB-FFB-
    Damiene CainDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPCC+
    Shannon SharpeDFFFFDNPDNPA+DNP
    Ben MillsDDNPDNPFDNPDNPDNPDNPDNP
    Beau WebbDNPFDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNP
    Trey EckloffA+DNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNPDNP
     
  16. Goose

    Goose Hoops Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Eckloff for team MVP.
     
  17. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Damn has Dufault ever tanked since the start of the season. We need to get this in graph form...
     
  18. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    He grades out amazingly in IER, Win Shares and Adjust +/-, put him on the court!

    In all seriousness though, why didn't Mills redshirt? I know in football you can play some amount of time early in the season and still red shirt. Does anybody know if there is anything like that for basketball?
     
  19. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    246a618c-2a76-11e1-93bb-000255111976.png



     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2011
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  20. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    My suspicion on Mills is that we wanted to leave his redshirt year available to him if he transfers and make sure that he only takes up his scholarship for 4 years if he doesn't.

    Great kid and has some skill, but it looks like a Big 6 conference is above his level and we are recruiting at a level that makes the odds good that we can bring in a freshman who would be able to contribute more.

    I'm spitballin' here, so if this is inaccurate or unfair to Mills then I apologize.
     
  21. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    seriously, I <3 you. semihomo. I'm thinking the best chart for something like this is a line graph.

    That might work for the win/share % as well.
     
  22. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I have been messing around with a bunch of charts/graphs, the problem with the line graph it gets unreadable with so many players and games. The bar chart posted above is the only "semi-readable" chart I can find with all on one chart. If I break it down on an individual basis it is much easier to read.

    Dufault as the example here

    untitled.JPG
     
    Last edited: Dec 19, 2011
  23. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    [​IMG]

    Something like the bottom right may work for win %....
     
  24. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    That is similar to what I posted the other day for win shares
     
  25. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    for sure. I wonder if it is possible to break it down by game (might have to trim the player list?)
     
  26. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    yeah i can break Win Shares up by game and chart it. if boyle just played 6 guys it would be a little easier to chart this stuff! I may need to break these up into separate threads (win shares, adjust +/- and IER) I have got a couple of message too long errors and had to scrape some of the scrubs off the 07 season to get the updates to fit.
     
  27. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Screw Boyle and his 10 man rotation!
     

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