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Bubble Watch - Saturday 3/12

I still think the Buffs could play themselves IN to the NCAA tournament IF they beat ISU and Nebraska and make a halfway decent showing in the Big 12 tournament. 20 wins and a top-half of the Big 12 conference

Otherwise, it is NIT for the Buffs, which isn't a bad thing, IMO.
 
Richmond: @ St. Joseph's Wednesday; vs Duquesne Saturday

Michigan: vs Michigan State Saturday

Alabama: @ Florida Tuesday; vs Georgia Saturday

Baylor: @ Oklahoma State Tuesday; vs Texas Saturday

Memphis: @ East Carolina Wednesday; vs Tulane Saturday

Clemson: @ Duke Wednesday; vs Virginia Tech Saturday

Boston College: @ Virginia Tech Tuesday; vs Wake Forest Saturday

Colorado: @ Iowa State Wednesday; vs Nebraska Saturday
 
Buffs currently have "the main picture" on the front page of ESPN.COM! Hope they keep it up four a couple hours.
 
regarding lunardi's bracketology, does his formula take into account games in the future that he believes teams will win, or is it simply a current glimpse? Because I wholeheartedly think that if we win our next two games heading into the b12 tourney, we gotta move up a few slots in his predictions.

anybody know the answer?
 
NBDefektor said:
regarding lunardi's bracketology, does his formula take into account games in the future that he believes teams will win, or is it simply a current glimpse? Because I wholeheartedly think that if we win our next two games heading into the b12 tourney, we gotta move up a few slots in his predictions.

anybody know the answer?
Click to expand...

Its were things stand right now. But just remember that teams in front of us will also win games...
 
I believe that Lunardi does a snapshot based on his formula and where teams fall on the S curve.
 
NBDefektor said:
regarding lunardi's bracketology, does his formula take into account games in the future that he believes teams will win, or is it simply a current glimpse? Because I wholeheartedly think that if we win our next two games heading into the b12 tourney, we gotta move up a few slots in his predictions.

anybody know the answer?
Click to expand...

Looks to me like it's a current glimpse. He does another deal on "tourney odds", and the Buffs right now are at 45%, which is actually better than Michigan, Memphis, Clemson or BC.

He's got Va Tech in as a 9 seed and Michigan State still as a 10 seed. Based on Nik's post above I'd say we want to root for those two teams this week. Not sure there's much chance either gets knocked out (it's going to take a hell of a collapse to keep Izzo and Sparty out of the tournament), but they could really screw with some of the bubble teams in front of us...
 
tante said:
What is so good about Richmond that makes them tourney worthy
Click to expand...

They beat Purdue on a neutral court, played a bunch of big conference schools with mixed results, and have won a bunch of games. They've also lost at Iona and were beat at home by Bucknell, but those are both 20 win teams. They've had a very good season, actually.
 
Gotta finish with Richmond.

1-1 versus top 25
0-2 versus 25 to 50
Strength of schedule is 139
Rpi is 61

The guys beat up a few good teams and a bunch of mediocre teams
 
My understanding is that Lunardi's bracketology is what the tournament would look like if the season ended today (or whatever date is on that webpage). But as noted, we definitely have a chance to play our way in. Win our last 2 and then our first game in the conference tourney then I have very little doubt we're in. And winning these next 3 with a loss in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 might even keep us from having to play in one of the 2 "first round" at-large games in Dayton.

The first goal is obviously get into the big dance. The 2nd goal is to not be one of the last 4 at-large teams so we won't have to play in the "first round" on Tuesday or Wednesday.
 
Tuesday (March 1st) Games of Interest

Ohio State at Penn State - go Buckeyes
Illinois at Purdue - Boilermakers uber alles
Alabama at Florida - Gator chomp
Missouri at Nebraska - not sure here, but I know I can't cheer for Nebraska
Baylor at Oklahoma State - get your Cowboy on
Boston College at Virginia Tech - Tech's in, so let's make sure BC is out
 
Buffnik said:
Tuesday (March 1st) Games of Interest

Ohio State at Penn State - go Buckeyes
Illinois at Purdue - Boilermakers uber alles
Alabama at Florida - Gator chomp
Missouri at Nebraska - not sure here, but I know I can't cheer for Nebraska
Baylor at Oklahoma State - get your Cowboy on
Boston College at Virginia Tech - Tech's in, so let's make sure BC is out
Click to expand...

Yeah I think OSU and OSU are the two we need the most.
 
Buffnik said:
Tuesday (March 1st) Games of Interest

Ohio State at Penn State - go Buckeyes
Illinois at Purdue - Boilermakers uber alles
Alabama at Florida - Gator chomp
Missouri at Nebraska - not sure here, but I know I can't cheer for Nebraska
Baylor at Oklahoma State - get your Cowboy on
Boston College at Virginia Tech - Tech's in, so let's make sure BC is out
Click to expand...

I'm not sold that VaTech is in just yet. They play at Clemson after this game, so if they lose to BC, their dream may shatter (unless they make a miraculous run in the acc tourney). Haven't heard much chatter about BC, tho.
 
RedDirtBuff said:
I'm not sold that VaTech is in just yet. They play at Clemson after this game, so if they lose to BC, their dream may shatter (unless they make a miraculous run in the acc tourney). Haven't heard much chatter about BC, tho.
Click to expand...

Here are the ACC bubble teams with remaining schedules:

Boston College (17-11 / 7-7): at Virginia Tech (3/1); vs Wake Forest (3/6)
Clemson (19-9 / 8-6): at Duke (3/2); vs Virginia Tech (3/5)
Maryland (18-11 / 7-7): at Miami (3/2); vs Virginia (3/5)
Virginia Tech (19-8 / 9-5): vs Boston College (3/1); at Clemson (3/5)

I think our best and most likely scenario is for Tech to win out. That eliminates Boston College and likely eliminates Clemson since Duke probably beats them at Cameron Indoor tomorrow. A Miami upset of Maryland tomorrow could knock the Terps out, too. There's definitely a scenario where the ACC only gets 4 teams this year.
 
Pretty good article on the selection process:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...es/02/21/mock.tournament.selection/index.html

We'll have twelve losses (unless we win out and win the tourney), which seems like a lot for an at large bid. Our non-conference schedule worries me. Got to finish strong!

But if an athletic director wants his team to make the tourney, here's the secret. He needs to teach his coach how to schedule. The committee weighs nonconference schedule heavily because it is the one thing a program can control. If a BCS conference team brings in the dregs of bad leagues in the nonconference and hopes to coast on its conference record, it had better dominate its conference (hello, Alabama, which didn't make our bracket). If a non-BCS conference school wants to make the tourney, it had better win big in conference and play -- and win -- in exempt tournaments against tough competition early in the season. There is an alchemy to scheduling. The coaches who can do it well have a huge advantage over their colleagues.
Click to expand...
 
Jerry Palm from collegerpi.com was just on The Ticket and think Colorado doesn't stand a chance to get in the tourney, outside of winning the Big XII tourney.
 
SkiTownUSA said:
Jerry Palm from collegerpi.com was just on The Ticket and think Colorado doesn't stand a chance to get in the tourney, outside of winning the Big XII tourney.
Click to expand...

that would be a bummer to get the next 2 wins, a win or two in the Big 12 tourney and be passed over on selection sunday.
 
whatthebuff said:
Pretty good article on the selection process:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...es/02/21/mock.tournament.selection/index.html

We'll have twelve losses (unless we win out and win the tourney), which seems like a lot for an at large bid. Our non-conference schedule worries me. Got to finish strong!
Click to expand...


What gets you into the NCAA conference is WINS.

I look back at CU's schedule and it isn't the WINS that hurt us. It's the LOSSES.

San Francisco and Oklahoma are games that a legitimate NCAA tournament team would have won.

Baylor and Texas A&M - two more games that CU should have won. Heck, CU was winning by 20 against Baylor, and lost the game.

Reverse the outcome of those four (4) games and CU is 22-7 with 2 games left, and the Buffs are worried about their SEEDING in the Big 12 tournament, not whether they get in at all.

I feel like I'm putting the cart before the horse anyway. The game in Ames tomorrow night is an absolute, positive, MUST WIN if the Buffs want to get into the NCAA tournament.
 
But if an athletic director wants his team to make the tourney, here's the secret. He needs to teach his coach how to schedule. The committee weighs nonconference schedule heavily because it is the one thing a program can control. If a BCS conference team brings in the dregs of bad leagues in the nonconference and hopes to coast on its conference record, it had better dominate its conference (hello, Alabama, which didn't make our bracket).

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...tournament.selection/index.html#ixzz1FNLzdJ6I
Click to expand...

In other words, we're ****ed. If that's really that important a criteria, the committee will pick apart our non-conference schedule and kick us to the curb.

It also explains why they rely so much on RPI. RPI gives heavy penalties to teams with too many really weak teams on their schedule.
 
There are 345 D1 men's basketball teams. Our non-conference schedule was ranked 323.

That's a lot to overcome. We need to win these next two and then see where we are.
 
Everyone on Espn has said if we win these 2 and 1 in the b12 tourney then we are in, and if theres one thing i trust Espn on its bracketology.
 
Lt.Col.FrankSlade said:
What gets you into the NCAA conference is WINS.

I look back at CU's schedule and it isn't the WINS that hurt us. It's the LOSSES.

San Francisco and Oklahoma are games that a legitimate NCAA tournament team would have won.

Baylor and Texas A&M - two more games that CU should have won. Heck, CU was winning by 20 against Baylor, and lost the game.

Reverse the outcome of those four (4) games and CU is 22-7 with 2 games left, and the Buffs are worried about their SEEDING in the Big 12 tournament, not whether they get in at all.

I feel like I'm putting the cart before the horse anyway. The game in Ames tomorrow night is an absolute, positive, MUST WIN if the Buffs want to get into the NCAA tournament.
Click to expand...

would you rather have the Baylor win or the Texas win? Remember Texas was up 22 on us and they lost as well.
 
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