My (VERY amateur) preview of this weekend matches’ opponents. (Note- all the stats below are based on conference play only stats, which I consider more reliable than including non-conference matches):
Stanford- So, the Buffs definitely face a tough test tonight against National #1 ranked and undefeated Stanford:
Note- Of course, as I fawn over Stanford's talent below, I do not in any way want to indicate the Buffs don’t have a good chance of the upset. We know what they did against (also #1 at the time) Washington last year in the Keg, and the Buffs have even more talent this year to pull off another upset. Hopefully, the Buffs can get that 1[SUP]st[/SUP] win ever against Stanford (against whom the Buffs have a 0-12 all-time record).
1) Stanford often seems to get much more production from its middle blockers than any other opponent; although it may also be the quality they've had at that position the last 5 plus years. The Tree’s main threat this year (and last) is from a middle blocker, with junior Inky Ajanaku, maybe the best at her position in the country, leading the team in kills. In addition, 6’8” redshirt freshman Merete Lutz is third on the team in kills, while having the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] highest kill % in the Pac 12. The two combined are hitting a ridiculous .489 in conference. (The Buff middles will definitely want to be sure to be wearing their springy shoes, as they are going to be doing a LOT of jumping and hopping as they HOPEFULLY at minimum are able to slow down this quick and lethal part of the Tree attack!)
2) Overall, the Trees are anchored still by their MONSTER 2012 recruiting class (now all juniors), which consisted of 5 of the top 10 ranked high school recruits (per prepvolleyball.com) in the country from that year. In addition to Ms. Ajanaku, their junior setter Maddie Bugg is considered one of the top 3 setters in the country. Also, both junior left side outside hitters Jordan Burgess (Gatorade and ESPN High School Player of the Year her senior year in HS) and Brittany Howard provide offensive production while being solid 6 position players who are as valuable on defense as they are on offense. In addition, Ms. Burgess has been getting hotter offensively in the last few matches after a slow (for her) start to the year.
3) Lightly used (in previous years) senior right side hitter Morgan Boukather has also become a major contributor, and has the best hitting % of the Tree’s outside hitters. (Always nice to see seniors who persevere and earn playing time. Last year as a junior, Ms. Boukather had a total of 3 kills in 20 matches of Pac 12 play, while this year she’s AVERAGING 2.38 kills per set.)
4) Their senior Libero Kyle Gilbert leads the Pac 12 in digs/set and anchors the back row for what is probably the best overall back row defense in the Pac 12. (Washington’s overall kill defense % is a little better probably due to their block, the best in the Pac ; The block is one of the few statistical areas where Stanford is even somewhat mediocre- “only” being tied with the Buffs for 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the conference in blocks/set.)
5) In general, the Cardinal have great diversity of offense, with 5 players averaging at least 2.2 kills per game in conference, any of whom could take over a match if they’re not given enough attention by their opponents. Statistically, in conference the Cards are #1 in hitting % (a ridiculous .327 average), and #2 in hitting % defense at .200.
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Cal, although winless in conference this year (0-6), had better not be overlooked on Sunday by the Buffs. (I don’t think ANY Buffs team in ANY sport can take ANY Pac 12 team for granted, as they've all experienced setbacks and/ or near setbacks within the last year or two to “down” Pac teams.) :
1) The Bears were picked 5th in the preseason poll, but I believe have had some injury issues. They also have had a brutal early conference schedule, with every team they've played but Oregon State being ranked, and even OSU is receiving votes in the Top 25 poll. In one of their losses, the Bears were up 2 sets to 0 against #3 ranked Washington before the Dogs came back for the win.
2) I believe Cal’s top offensive player, pre-season all conference Christina Higgins, has been part of the walking wounded, but had her best conference offensive performance (18 kills in 4 games while hitting .241) her last match against ASU, and is 9[SUP]th[/SUP] in the Pac 12 in kills/set.
3) The Bear’s defense is led by last year’s all-freshman 1[SUP]st[/SUP] team player Maddy Kerr (Steve’s daughter), who is 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] in digs/set in the Pac during conference play.
4) And, their setter Alyssa Jenson is 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in the Pac 12 in assists/game while gaining experience as a sophomore who hardly played at all as a freshman.
Overall, though, if the Buffs bring full intensity to the match, they hopefully should be able to do well, as the Bears are 11[SUP]th[/SUP] in kill % and 12[SUP]th[/SUP] in kill % defense in the Pac 12. I believe they may also have allowed the most aces in conference play, which will hopefully play to one of the Buff’s big strengths this year- their serve.
This would also be a nice win since it would be the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] time the Buffs have defeated the Bears since joining the Pac 12 (Buffs are 0-5 in conference, with a 2-5 lifetime record against the Golden Bears).
