1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

College Football Countdown: #101 Colorado

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by TimmyDUBs, May 19, 2014.

  1. TimmyDUBs

    TimmyDUBs Dirty haole Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    6,572
    Likes Received:
    952
    Actually an excellent write up. He's done his research pretty well, although I disagree that the O will be better than the D. If we can establish the run and the D line doesn't step up he may be correct, though. He also may give us more credit with the LB crew than we deserve. The rest is sound.

    Overall the front range is not producing the best teams, with us, Wyoming, Air Force, NM, New Mex State all ranked in triple digits. Only frickin CSU looks to get into double.

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...review-roster-schedule-football-four/9201195/

    Interesting excerpt from recapping last year:

    2013 RECAP:In a nutshell: This program has never been so happy to win four games. That the Buffaloes found happiness in a four-win finish illustrates two facts: one, MacIntyre's predecessor might have been the worst hire in major-conference history, and two, CU is smart enough to understand that contention isn't developed overnight. Instead, the Buffaloes flashed signs of promise on the field and off last fall, beating a Pac-12 foe for the fourth time as a member of the conference, showing a degree of explosiveness on offense and trimming some of the fat on defense, even if that side of the ball remains behind the curve. In the bigger view, the program started the process of reversing a putrid mentality, a shocking lack of depth and obscenely ineffective player development – steps that will pay off in spades down the road.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2014
  2. BuffClass90

    BuffClass90 Banned BANNED

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    Messages:
    3,905
    Likes Received:
    96
    Very good write up...impressive. I'd share this with anyone who asked what I thought of the Buffs this season.
     
  3. BuffTuba

    BuffTuba Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2006
    Messages:
    1,309
    Likes Received:
    63
    A nice dose of hard truths. We'll see what comes true and what does not but it was a decent read.
     
  4. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    Meh...give me a math based ranking system over a subjective one.
     
  5. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Dec 1, 2006
    Messages:
    25,890
    Likes Received:
    1,508
    such as?
     
  6. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    39,740
    Likes Received:
    4,742
    Says the most subjective poster on the site... when it suits him, of course.
     
  7. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    The espn one would be an example, Sagarin would be another. A aggregate system that takes in three or four (including this one), would be the best. I just don't think you can go through and accurately rank all the D1 teams with subjective evidence.

    Excuse me for thinking that when doing rankings using math would be a better option?
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2014
  8. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2008
    Messages:
    17,281
    Likes Received:
    1,816
    How many wins does Sagarin have us at this year? 5 like you say? 6 with Callahan?
     
  9. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    I would guess most will be at 4 wins for this year regardless
     
  10. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2008
    Messages:
    17,281
    Likes Received:
    1,816
    So should I bet my money on sagarin's 4 (isn't it 3.5?) or your subjective 5?
     
  11. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    I'm not sure you understand probability distributions...
     
  12. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2011
    Messages:
    13,918
    Likes Received:
    3,641
    For your next avatar.

    q.jpg
     
    CVilleBuff likes this.
  13. TimmyDUBs

    TimmyDUBs Dirty haole Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    6,572
    Likes Received:
    952
    It kind of got me pumped up to be honest. I think the talent and speed on the team are much higher than in the past couple years, but our holes are so glaring on the o line, and the ??s on WR, Dline and LB corps all contribute to the reality check.
     
  14. bombay

    bombay Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    Messages:
    5,405
    Likes Received:
    1,037
    From the article: "steps that will pay off in spades down the road."

    I like his take, and pretty much agree with what he has to say. Although he should be in big trouble here for the optimistic spin at the end of the article. Can't have that.
     
  15. BuffClass90

    BuffClass90 Banned BANNED

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2012
    Messages:
    3,905
    Likes Received:
    96
    One thing I disagree with him the author on is his thought we can't beat Utah. That will be a tough game in Utah, but is winnable IMO.

    I can reasonably see 5 wins this year: CSEwe, UM, UH, Cal and UU. If we can sneak past someone...like AZ or OSU...we can go bowling. Hoping, but not expecting, that to happen.

    Go Buffs!
     
  16. TimmyDUBs

    TimmyDUBs Dirty haole Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    6,572
    Likes Received:
    952
    The way I see it each year is that we'll be surprised by a few of the offensive or defensive units each season, and it can be for the better or worse. If just a couple units out of the TEs, LBs, Oline, Dline, WRs, or Sefo himself proves to be better than advertised this year we might see a couple wins that we didn't expect.
     
  17. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    The Utah game is a home game this year and one I fully expect to win
     
  18. The Ogre

    The Ogre Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2012
    Messages:
    3,130
    Likes Received:
    693
    Most of life can't be accurately quantified. Subjective reasoning, or intuition, balanced with knowledge, can be invaluable.

    Put that on you bong and smoke it. Decent article.
     
  19. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    Doesn't mean you can't attempt quantify it with rankings via a regression model for example. A person using subjective evidence for rankings can't tell you the difference between the #101 team and the #90 team for example in all likelihood. In the end, no model is going to be 100% agreed upon as far as results go, but if done right I believe they tell a much better story of the subject than subjective rankings.
     
  20. tante

    tante Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2009
    Messages:
    25,787
    Likes Received:
    1,359

    So you don't want to hear a player has a firm handshake, you want to know how firm it really is. Exactly how much twinkle is in their eye.
     
    sliderNcider likes this.
  21. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    I'm very interested if having a firm handshake and a twinkle in your eye is statistically significant in predicting wins
     
  22. TimmyDUBs

    TimmyDUBs Dirty haole Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    6,572
    Likes Received:
    952
    I think you just admitted you have a weak handshake and dull eyes.
     
  23. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,738
    Likes Received:
    16,445
    Come on, man.

    It was a well-written piece with well-grounded opinions. USA Today put out one hell of an early preview.

    If you want to rank the teams, do an average star rating of every roster with a a positive weight to 5th & 4th year players and a negative weight to 1st & 2nd year players. That would probably get you closer than anything. What it wouldn't do is adjust for schedule (i.e, Ole Miss won't have as good of a record as Boise State).
     
  24. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    I'm not saying it wasn't well written, I enjoyed readying it and think the preview is a damn good one, I just believe when ranking all the D1 teams using stats for ranking would be more valuable.

    I regret not doing a college football ranking system for my final project now.
     
  25. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2008
    Messages:
    17,281
    Likes Received:
    1,816
    Says the guy who picks CU to go undefeated at home in basketball (miniscule % chance I'm sure) and win 2 more games than any other mathematical model that he also touts constantly
     
  26. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    You are just adorable
     
  27. buffs04

    buffs04 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2008
    Messages:
    2,488
    Likes Received:
    223
    I'm not sure that regression is the best way to preseason rank college football teams given the high turnover every team experiences every year and the number of unobservable or non-quantifiable relevant variables. You could do something based on ranking of incoming recruiting class, performance over the past few years, number of returning players, projected strength of schedule, class composition, etc., but you'd be missing out on a lot of things that can be taken into account by an informed subjective ranking, like player development, practice observation, injuries/attrition (not sure how you're going to capture these in a regression) to specific players, changes in coaching staff, etc. Really, I think that a subjective evaluation by an informed observer is a much better approach for projecting the change in team quality year-over-year. Leave the statistical analysis for in-season evaluations.
     
    The Ogre likes this.
  28. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 6, 2010
    Messages:
    26,503
    Likes Received:
    761
    Sorry, not buying that a subjective approach is the best way to approach year+1 projections
     
  29. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    48,530
    Likes Received:
    4,519
    Well, we have one guy putting us at 66, another at 101. I tend to side with the guy who put us at 66 because I can't reconcile the idea that we are as bad as 101.
     
  30. TimmyDUBs

    TimmyDUBs Dirty haole Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    6,572
    Likes Received:
    952
    My statistical analysis shows we are accurately ranked 83.5
     

Share This Page