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Colorado Schedule Comparison Analysis

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by TZISKIN, Jan 11, 2012.

  1. TZISKIN

    TZISKIN Well-Known Member

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    I've been going through some research lately to figure out where exactly we sit in the tourney committee's eyes (in my opinion, of course) at this point in the season, and used last year's schedule and results as a barometer. Let me first start off by saying I would VERY, VERY surprised to see this team in a position to be on the bubble as the season winds down for a variety of factors, some of which you will see in this data. However, there is a lot of excitement around the program right now and I figured this would be of some interest to many people who follow CU Basketball like I do...

    Some key notes from the data...

    Non-Conference RPI Top 300 games:
    2011 - 8/15 (53.33%) - 4 RPI Top 300 wins
    2012 - 10/12 (83.33%) - 6 RPI Top 300 wins

    Conference RPI Top 50 games:
    2011 - 10/19 (52.63%) - 5 RPI Top 50 wins
    2012 - 2/18 (11.11%)

    Conference RPI Top 150 games:
    2011 - 14/19 (73.68%) - 9 RPI Top 150 wins
    2012 - 9/18 (50.00%)

    Overall, last year's team was 10-8 against RPI Top 150 opponents, this year, we are currently 3-4 with 8 games remaining.

    As far as postseason play is concerned... we are currently sitting at 11-4 with 15 games remaining... we'd need a 15-15 record to be considered for NIT play. Interestingly, we have 6 home games remaining against the following opponents:

    Arizona St - 216
    Arizona - 69
    Oregon St - 104
    Oregon - 73
    Stanford - 31
    Cal - 45

    In addition, we have away games against the following below 150 RPI schools...

    @USC - 205
    @ASU - 216
    @Utah - 273

    Obviously, with our inconsistency, I'm not about to guarantee we get to that magical 15 win spot, but you'd think we could find 4 wins fairly easily out of those 9 games.

    I can't seem to figure out how to post a spreadsheet, if someone can direct me I'll post the data for you guys to check out.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2012
    Goose and jgisland like this.
  2. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    just copy and paste the info from the spreadsheet, it pretty much will format itself into cells. don't try to attach or upload the spreadsheet.
     
  3. TZISKIN

    TZISKIN Well-Known Member

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  4. TZISKIN

    TZISKIN Well-Known Member

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    Think its working, thanks for the help everyone. Hope it leads to some cool discussion.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2012
  5. RumblinBuff

    RumblinBuff That one blogging guy Club Member

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    Toss it in a google docs sheet, and link it.
     
  6. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    the good thing is cu's rpi is moving in the right direction but the p12 is probably going to beat each other up and it is going to be tough to climb much without a W against CAL or Arizona.
     
  7. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I took the projections from kenpom.com and broke them up looking at what CU needs to do to get to 15 wins. I broke these games up into Wins, Toss Up and Losses. I considered a Win any game that has a 70% or more probability of winning, a Toss Up anything from 31% to 69% winning and a loss as anything with a 30% or less chance of winning (these breakdowns are random, you could move that CAL home game into the toss up category and the Oregon home game into the W column and make this look even better).

    Basically there are 2 guaranteed wins, 6 losses and 7 toss ups. Of those toss ups 4 are at home and 3 on the road. So if CU actually wins their 2 guaranteed games, holds home court on the toss ups and loses the rest they should get to 17 wins and NIT eligible.

    OpponentDateKP RankRPIProjected score% chance to Win
    WinsArizona St.HomeThu Jan 19164216W, 70-6180%
    UtahAwaySat Feb 18324273W, 68-5491%
    Toss UpArizonaHomeSat Jan 214769L, 64-6346%
    Southern CaliforniaAwayThu Jan 26148205L, 56-5550%
    Oregon St.HomeThu Feb 262104W, 74-7353%
    OregonHomeSat Feb 411273W, 71-6667%
    Arizona St.AwaySat Feb 11164216W, 66-6456%
    StanfordHomeThu Feb 233831L, 64-6343%
    OregonAwayThu Mar 111273L, 70-6739%
    LossesCaliforniaAwayThu Jan 121945L, 73-6012%
    StanfordAwaySat Jan 143831L, 68-5919%
    UCLAAwaySat Jan 2863135L, 69-6327%
    ArizonaAwayThu Feb 94769L, 68-6021%
    CaliforniaHomeSun Feb 261945L, 69-6330%
    Oregon St.AwaySat Mar 362104L, 77-7026%


    Ken Pomeroy's projections are eerily similar to the vegas line spreads which are regarded as the best predictors.
     
  8. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    If we lose to Southern Cal - at home or the road - we're toast. Those are two games we should win easily.
     
  9. TZISKIN

    TZISKIN Well-Known Member

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    We don't play USC at home... only on the road, and there is no such thing as an EASY road win for this team, it's tough to win on the road in college basketball and I'll take them whenever I can get them
     
  10. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    wow. 12% and 19% on this weekend's games. OUCH
     
  11. TZISKIN

    TZISKIN Well-Known Member

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    Additional Notes:

    Opponent RPI Averages by Season:
    Note: D2 opponents given a standard RPI rating of 400

    2011
    NonConference - 223.67
    Big XII - 64.47
    Overall - 126.67

    2012
    NonConference - 173.58
    Pac12 - 124.06
    Overall - 143.87
     
  12. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    well, we got our noncon close to where it needs to be... too bad our conference has gone to ****.
     

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