continuity within the program

[Quattro]

I did a quick lookup this year where I compared penalties/game and winning%...almost no relationship to speak of, I didnt check the actual correlation or the R-squared but there was nothing there. Same for penalty yards/game

 

[Duff Man]

We were solidly in the middle of the conference in penalty yardage last season FWIW. We were a LOT worse in other categories.

 

[BuffNut99]

Somewhere, Ray Polk is nodding.

 

[Darth Snow]

Apparently you're not paying attention.

Again.


I can agree that there are a lot of other factors that are more important. I'm not disupiting that. But simply taking some statistics and saying that penalties don't matter ignores the situation we're in. Our margin for error is very, very thin. One ill-timed penalty can - and has - directly cause us to lose. In light of that fact, we can't be discounting penalties. Simply put, we need every advantage we can get.

You are admitting to the larger principle, but are unable to apply it to the specific situation at hand. That's what I'm saying.

 

[sackman]

I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree on this subject.

For a 2-10 team, to say "penalties are not important" doesn't make any sense. It's all important. It's not an immediate priority, but it's also not something we can afford to dismiss out of hand, either.

 

[sackman]

I'll also admit that my pet stat is third down conversion rates. However, I'm far more accepting of giving up a 3rd and 1 from the opponent's 15 yard line than I am of giving up a 3rd and 8 from their 40. One can be recovered from, while the other probably leads to some kind of score. Along the same lines, there are good penalties and bad penalties. I don't dispute that.

 

[Buffnik]

I suppose we'll have to agree to disagree on this subject.

For a 2-10 team, to say "penalties are not important" doesn't make any sense. It's all important. It's not an immediate priority, but it's also not something we can afford to dismiss out of hand, either.

I suppose we will have to agree to disagree.

When a thing hasn't shown to carry any relevance to winning or losing football games and the team we are discussing is about average on that thing, I'd say there is nothing there that's worthy of consideration and that it is exactly the type of thing that can be dismissed out of hand.

 

[BlackNGold]

Definitely counter-intuitive.

But it's what the data says. Coaches know it. It's why they talk about pre-snap and dead ball penalties but don't talk about limiting penalties in general. Delays of game and false starts are boneheaded plays that show poor discipline and get a team off schedule. Coaches do worry about those and it is a reflection of how well a team is coached.

Similarly in basketball, free throw percentage being almost irrelevant is completely counter-intuitive to fans. Like penalties in football, they drive us crazy and are an easy thing to focus upon. But the coaches only talk about getting to the line and hitting FTs to close out games.

Coaches know the metrics and what to focus upon.

Houston with one of the most talented teams ever lost the MNC because they could not hit free throws. Free throws are important...in fact a lot of the Buffs strategy over the past few years has been to get to the free throw line a lot. Penalties are important, turnover margin is important, but not ever stat correlates 100%. Florida State was horrible in TO margin and only lost one game. The thing that skews penalties are a lot of good teams are very aggressive and take aggression penalties - but there are times even those times get a penalty that is a game changer. I agree with Sackman that CU has little for margin of error. Delay of Game penalty at the end of the half being on the goal line might of cost them a victory this season. CU can ill afford a penalty that puts them in 3rd and long...teams like Oregon never see 3rd down even with penalties.

 

[Duff Man]

I suppose we will have to agree to disagree.When a thing hasn't shown to carry any relevance to winning or losing football games and the team we are discussing is about average on that thing, I'd say there is nothing there that's worthy of consideration and that it is exactly the type of thing that can be dismissed out of hand.

Turnover margin and red zone defense are the biggies in 2015.

 

[BlackNGold]

Turnover margin and red zone defense are the biggies in 2015.

Throw in ypa for and against in the passing game. That is usually a very telling stat.

 

[Quattro]

Houston with one of the most talented teams ever lost the MNC because they could not hit free throws. Free throws are important...in fact a lot of the Buffs strategy over the past few years has been to get to the free throw line a lot. Penalties are important, turnover margin is important, but not ever stat correlates 100%. Florida State was horrible in TO margin and only lost one game. The thing that skews penalties are a lot of good teams are very aggressive and take aggression penalties - but there are times even those times get a penalty that is a game changer. I agree with Sackman that CU has little for margin of error. Delay of Game penalty at the end of the half being on the goal line might of cost them a victory this season. CU can ill afford a penalty that puts them in 3rd and long...teams like Oregon never see 3rd down even with penalties.

FTA/FGA >>>>>>> FT%

 

[Buffnik]

Turnover margin and red zone defense are the biggies in 2015.

I agree.

Followed by explosive plays (for and against).

 

[Bufffan68]

For the data nerds, here's what I got when correlating turnover margin with winning percentage. More important than penalties.

Now I should get back to doing things for which I get paid...