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Crunch time for the Buffs

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by Buffnik, Feb 6, 2011.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Remaining schedule for the Men:

    A&M
    K-St
    @Kansas
    @Texas Tech
    Texas
    @Iowa St
    Nebraska

    For any chance at the NCAA tournament, the Buffs will need to go 5-2 to get to 20-11 (9-7). Then, we'll need to win at least 1 game in the Big 12 tourney.

    These next two home games are completely critical for making this happen. Both against very good teams, but we get them at the Keg where we're favored against just about anyone.

    Do you think the Buffs win these next 2 and make this thing interesting?
     
  2. NiTownBuff

    NiTownBuff Club Member Club Member

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    It's possible, but there's really no room for error. I don't see us winning @KU, and I think Texas beats us at home. We'd have to win all the others, and based on our road performance, I'm not very confident. I think we finish 8-8 or 7-9 in conference and fall just short of an NCAA bid. I hope I'm wrong.

    And hope you feel better Buffnik, it wasn't the same without you on signing day.
     
  3. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    Really a 5 game season...whatever happens with Kansas and Texas is gravy...We have to win home games vs. A&M, K-State and Nebraska and also beat both ISU and Texas Tech on the road to get NCAA worthy.

    This team can do it if they play unselfishly...but they have got to start having a higher assist number....the teamwork hasn't been there when things go bad...too much individualism.
     
  4. dyemeduke

    dyemeduke Well-Known Member

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    I agree this is a HUGE stretch...but I think we have to win two tourney games with a 9-7 conference record. We did not have a great OOC performance, and I think we really only can afford one loss (most likely TX in my opinion, just because they're very good...in spite of my thoughts on Barnes as a coach).

    I think we go NIT...hate to say it, but they had to win that OU game. I thought we would beat KU too, and that would have been a signature win. Our resume would not look very good sitting at 9-7 and one win in conference tourney. Even two wins in the tournament doesn't make us a shoo-in.
     
  5. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    I'm not sure the two tourney wins is a HUGE stretch, if we can get to the 5th or 6th seed. That would get us ISU or the #11 team (Tech would be my guess) in the first round, then the 3 or 4 seed in the second round. Honestly, I'm not sure there's a team in the conference I feel like we don't have a chance at on a neutral court (not that it's a gimme, of course) aside from KU or UT. The big trick is going to be getting to that 6 seed or better. But right now we're tied for 7th, 1 game out of third and 1 game out of 11th. It's that tight. That got me curious about all the remaining schedules:

    CU (as posted above) Currently 4-5 Big XII

    A&M
    K-St
    @Kansas
    @Texas Tech
    Texas
    @Iowa St
    Nubraska

    Baylor - Currently 5-4 Big XII


    Nubraska
    @ Texas
    Texas Tech
    @Mizzou
    aTm
    @Okie Lite
    Texas

    Texas A&M - 4-4 Big XII

    @Colorado
    @Texas Tech
    Iowa State
    @Okie Lite
    OU
    @Baylor
    @Kansas
    Texas Tech

    Missouri - Currently 4-4 Big XII

    @Kansas
    Oklahoma
    Texas Tech
    @Iowa State
    Baylor
    @KjSU
    @Nubraska
    Kansas

    Oklahoma - Currently 4-4 Big XII


    Texas
    @Mizzou
    Nubraska
    @KjSU
    @aTm
    Kansas
    @Texas Tech
    Okie Lite

    Oklahoma State - Currently 4-5 Big XII

    @Nubraska
    @Texas
    aTm
    @Kansas
    Texas Tech
    Baylor
    @Oklahoma

    Kansas State - Currently 4-5 Big XII


    @Colorado
    Kansas
    Oklahoma
    @Nubraska
    Mizzou
    @Texas
    Iowa State

    Nubraska - Currently 3-5 Big XII

    @Baylor
    Okie Lite
    @Oklahoma
    Texas
    KjSU
    @Iowa State
    Mizzou
    @Colorado

    Texas Tech - Currently 3-6 Big XII


    aTm
    @Mizzou
    @Baylor
    Colorado
    @Okie Lite
    Oklahoma
    @aTm

    A few things jump out... Baylor still has to play Texas twice. aTm has 5 of their final 8 on the road, including KU. But they are done with Texass. Mizzou has KU coming up twice, and still has all their road games against the North left except for CU. OU and Okie Lite both still have games left against Texass and KU, but OU has them both in Norman while OSU has them both on the road. KjSU has Kansas coming in next week, still has to travel to UT, but that's one of only 3 road games on their schedule. Their schedule is pretty similar to CU, which makes the game in Boulder Saturday HUGE. The nubs have UT coming to their place, along with KjSU, Okie Lite and Mizzou. They'll need to stay hot at home, because they've been miserable on the road and still have to go to CU, Baylor and OU (and ISU, but that's a bit easier...). Tech's remaining games are all against the rest of the teams in this pack. They've got a great shot to play spoiler, if nothing else...
     
  6. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    I think we can win these next two. I'm pumped to get these in Boulder - about the one thing that has gone right with our schedule this season.

    A&M looks like they may have overachieved a bit to start the season. We're catching them at the right time now that they've fallen to 4-4, and i expect a close one.

    Who knows what to expect against KSU. They kept alive their tourney hopes with an 86-85 win in Ames yesterday, and both sides know there is a lot on the line. A season sweep of KSU on the resume would be a huge advantage over them come Selection Sunday.

    Just gotta take it 1 at a time, but yes, finishing 9-7 and then probably winning one in KC is required. Going to take some solid home victories and winning a couple on the road against the bottom two teams in the league. Let's do our part and pack the keg for A&M, KSU, Texas and Corn
     
  7. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    -A&M has 5/8 on the road, but they have home games against ISU, OU and Texas Tech. Also play Tech on the road.
    -Baylor has at least 3 more losses with Texas twice and @ Mizzou.
    -I expect Okie State to fall off and be out of any tourney talk after their next few games.
    -Go Buffs, beat A&M!!!
     
  8. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    OU will fall back. I could see OSU get to 8 wins but they'll need to beat OU in Norman to do it, prolly. cowboy rpi is on the cusp at 47. good for us since it gives us another W in W-L v. RPI top 50.

    9-7 MU, ATM
    8-8 CU, BU (might need to pull for a rematch with these guys in the conf tournament...)

    maybe 8-8, KSU or OSU...however, KSU rpi 31; OSU 47. we do not want KSU to 1. beat KU and/or 2. get to 8-8. must beat KSU
    7-9 NU, KSU, OSU
    6-10 OU

    so, with ATM and KSU in the 30's rpi....beating both teams should energize our lagging rpi (87). also, make us 6-3 v. rpi top 50 with Harvard just on the outside of 50. i'd say we are mos def on the outside looking in right now with KSU, OSU, and BU all with better rpi. OSU and KSU by a lot. beat ATM and KSU and then see where we are in a week. pull for BU to lose.
     
  9. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    No way in hell CU will go 5-2 over the next 7 games.

    This is an NIT team.
     
  10. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    dream crusher!!!
     
  11. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    :nod: A tourney team wins the next two.
     
  12. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Valid. I agree. A tourney team probably wins, or at least puts the fear of God into Texass, too.

    It's not like Boyle has forgotten how to coach. The Big 12 is a very, very tough conference. The difference between the #4 and the #9 team in the league might end up being two games.

    The trick for CU is to finish #5 or #6. Being a #4 seed is not good. CU needs that extra "easy" win vs. Tech or ISU and then a solid matchup against Missouri, OSU, or A&M in the 2nd round. Finish the regular season at 20-11, and 2-1 in the tournament to finish 22-12 will get them an invite to the big dance.
     
  13. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    This team can beat Texas in Boulder. It will take Burks playing like a lottery pick, and Higgins right behind him. Hopefully we haven't seen this teams best yet.
     
  14. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Hopefully KU takes care of business at home tonight against Mizzou. A KU win knocks the Tigers right back to 4-5 with CU, Okie State and KSU
     
  15. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Three Big XII games tomorrow night

    aTm @ Colorado
    Texass @ OU
    Nubraska @ Bailer

    If all 3 of those games would happen to break right (if the Buffs take care of business, getting the Nubs to win @ Bailer might still be tough), the Buffs would move to 5-5 in conference, passing OU and aTm and tying them with Bailer for 3rd in the conference...
     
  16. TDforTD

    TDforTD Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Not worried about aTm at all really. Our defense sucks and will struggle to keep their meh offense from scoring but they don't have the firepower to beat us in Boulder. KSU has played pretty well lately. I figured they would beat Nebraska at home but I wasn't sure about beating Iowa State on the road. Even so, they don't really scare me all that much outside of the fact that they're starting to use their post game more which they didn't do the first time around.

    Like someone else mentioned, there is absolutely no reason CU doesn't go 5-2 but their inability to focus at any time on the road scares me. They've let us down a few times this year and it wouldn't surprise me if they drop games to TT and ISU on the road.
     
  17. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Welcome to the board, TD!

    I wish I was as confident as you are. Texas A&M is a damn good basketball team. So is Kansas State. Either one is capable of going on an Elite 8 run in the tourney. Still, I like our chances at the Keg of taking them both down.
     
  18. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    Turgeon is an "old school" guy, he'll take the ball straight into the paint against us. on the road, what better way to go at it than right at our weakness for high % shots and get the FT line (and our short bench inside).

    KSU, we'll see how much diff Kelly makes. again, his addition is right where it could hurt us.

    that said, i think we win both and have a great crowd for the Cats. gonna be a fun week.
     
  19. TDforTD

    TDforTD Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Oh yeah, at the end of the day both aTm and KSU are Big 12 opponents and anything can happen. I feel like aTm would be ridiculously dangerous if they had a true big man. They still play through the post as if they had a Joseph Jones back there but since they don't really, they have struggled. I could see B.J. Holmes running circles around our defense and probably having a pretty nice game. Khris Middleton is an extremely talented player who would probably be all american worthy if he played any defense. He would scare me tremendously if he touched the ball more but for a guy who should probably get at least one touch per play, he will often go stretches of the game without getting the ball. I like our chances overall with it being a home game.

    As for the KSU game it will definitely be interesting to see how they play us. Kelly and Samuels scare me and Jacob Pullen is Jacob Pullen. Unfortunately, without CU having any post presence, I could definitely see us losing any game randomly, which also includes KSU and aTm. Hopefully the loud fans keep us in the game and we run them tired in the second half.
     
  20. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Hope the crowd for A&M can be better than it was for ISU. Going to be fun to see how Boyle and Turgeon strategize against each other. The crowd for KSU was great last year, although they were highly ranked at the time. KSU will bring their fans, so hopefully we can fill the house and create another raucous environment. Crunch time
     
  21. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    weather was pretty extreme last week for ISU. i walked back to my office (on campus) at halftime, and it was -6 and pretty brutal. i've lived in Nederland and Rollinsville and i like to think i can "hack it" as a Coloradan. it was friggin cold. it was cold IN the CEC. the cheese on my nachos set up immediately....during the national anthem. it's still cold tomorrow but i think we'll have a decent crowd for a midweek game. huge game for us....a big student showing would be key. if i'm Bohn, i've been sending emails to the CUlist all week. roads should be fine....but, with the traffic on 36 and between CU and the Boulder downtown grid for an evening start....the CEC is not a great drive during the week.
     
  22. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Looking like a low of -1 for tomorrow night...welcome to Boulder, Aggies. A win tomorrow puts us in 4th, a loss in 9th. Huge....hopefully we come out firing on all cylinders as it's been a rough couple weeks (ISU being the lone exception). I want this RPI "quality win" feather to put in our hat. The losses just keep on coming for other "bubble" teams around the country, going to be some very interesting decisions that will need to be made come March.
     
  23. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Make the gaggies walk to the CEC. Set the tone early.
     
  24. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    Given the remaining schedule, winning these next 2 is almost a must if CU is going to entertain any talk of making the NCAA tournament, but more importantly is to win the Texas game because this team really needs a high quality win and that's the most realistic chance left on the schedule. So I definitely would trade a win over Texas for one of the next 2.

    I completely agree that 9-7 is the minimum for this team to get NCAA consideration but somewhere along the line there also needs to be some real quality wins thrown in.
     
  25. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    i don't think there is a trade. we can lose to Texas and get a roadie W at Tech or ISU....but losing one of these two (KSU and ATM) puts us out of the NCAA imo.

    these games are the season as i've been posting for a month now.....we lose one of them, we're NIT. win them both, we still have a chance.
     
  26. TDforTD

    TDforTD Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Well fortunately this is probably the best chance we would have in recent years. The Pac 10, ACC, and SEC all suck this year and the Big 12 will easily get 5, more than likely will get 6, and potentially could have 7 teams make the tourney depending on how everyone finishes. With it being Higgins and Knutson's last year, and with the chance that Burks will head pro, the stars have completely aligned for us to get a tourney bid. Even after some of the disappointment that's happened thus far, if CU takes care of business, they're in.
     
  27. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Tonight's game couldn't be any bigger.

    Even if we finish with a 6-3 run to finish the year at 21-12, I still think we'll be watching all the small conference tourneys praying we don't see upsets.
     
  28. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    That would make us 10-6 in-conference though. Do that and get a win in the Big 12 tourney and we'd be in regardless I think.
     
  29. torerobuff

    torerobuff Dancing is forbidden Club Member

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    I don't really think the small conferences are worries this year. St. Mary's out of the WCC, maybe Memphis in CUSA are the only squads I'm thinking will get at large bids if they don't win their tournament. Utah St. is in the same boat they're always in, tons of wins against nobody, so I guess they could be in that conversation too. The Bubble is really soft right now, I think the bigger worries would be outsiders pulling off upsets in the big conference tournaments, like Georgia did in the SEC three years ago.

    Granted, this is all moot if we don't take care of business at home this week.
     
  30. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I was thinking 9-7 plus 1-1 in the B12 tourney.
     

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