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CU Football: Attrition & Roster Management Under MacIntyre

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Buffnik, Jul 14, 2014.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Some attrition is healthy for a football program, just as some unemployment is good for an economy.

    You've got to keep things fresh and competitive. People can't ever get too comfortable. Sometimes it's not the best fit for a person. In those cases (like as an employer when someone is fired or resigns), it's often the best for both parties that they parted ways.

    So, we don't want zero attrition.

    Tad Boyle hasn't had zero attrition. Not even counting NBA draft entrants, about half a roster worth of guys have left his program before their CU eligibility was exhausted. It's been healthy.

    That said, let's look at the roster that MacIntyre inherited and how many of these players completed their eligibility at CU.

    2012 Roster (Scholarship Roster):

    1. Donta Abron (RB) - still on team
    2. David Bakhtiari (OL) - early Draft entrant
    3. Jered Bell (DB) - still on team
    4. Nate Bonsu (DL) - exhausted eligibility
    5. Keenan Canty (WR) - graduated / transferred with eligibility remaining
    6. Justin Castor (K) - exhausted eligibility
    7. Brad Cotner (OL) - still on team
    8. Kaiwi Crabb (OL) - still on team
    9. Kenneth Crawley (DB) - still on team
    10. Malcolm Creer (RB) - still on team
    11. Terrence Crowder (RB) - still on team
    12. Brady Daigh (LB) - stil on team
    13. Ryan Dannewitz (OL) - exhausted eligibility
    14. Jarrod Darden (WR) - graduated / transferred with eligibility remaining
    15. Shane Dillon (QB) - transferred
    16. Stevie Jo Dorman (QB) - transferred
    17. Scott Fernandez (FB) - exhausted eligibility
    18. Josh Ford (RB) - exhausted eligibility but would have graduated & transferred if NCAA had granted 6th year
    19. D.D. Goodson (WR) - still on team
    20. Woodson Greer (LB) - still on team
    21. Zach Grossnickle (K) - graduated/ transferred with eligibility remaining
    22. Jeffrey Hall (DB) - still on team / suspended indefinitely
    23. Gus Handler (OL) - exhausted eligibility
    24. Sherrard Harrington (DB) - injury retirement / still at CU
    25. Jack Harris (OL) - exhausted eligibility / chose not to pursue a 6th year with NCAA
    26. Greg Henderson (DB) - still on team
    27. Tyler Henington (DL) - still on team
    28. Nick Hirschman (QB) - transferred
    29. Vincent Hobbs (TE) - transferred closer to home due to family tragedy
    30. Jeromy Irwin (OL) - still on team
    31. Sean Irwin (TE) - still on team
    32. Ryan Iverson (SN) - exhausted eligibility
    33. Tony Jones (RB) - still on team
    34. Samson Kafovalu (DL) - still on team / questions on future due to off-field troubles
    35. Nick Kasa (TE) - exhausted eligibility but may have been able to get a 6th year instead of entering NFL
    36. Alex Kelley (OL) - still on team
    37. Alex Lewis (OL) - transferred and immediately found himself in legal trouble
    38. Jon Major (LB) - exhausted eligibility
    39. Tyler McCulloch (WR) - still on team
    40. Marques Mosley (DB) - still on team
    41. Josh Moten (DB) - still on team (possible injury retirement)
    42. Daniel Munyer (OL) - still on team
    43. Marc Mustoe (OL) - still on team
    44. Stephane Nembot (OL) - still on team
    45. Clay Norgard (DL) - still on team
    46. Darragh O'Neill (P) - still on team
    47. Will Oliver (K) - still on team
    48. Parker Orms (DB) - exhausted eligibility
    49. Juda Parker (DL) - still on team
    50. Davien Payne (RB) - suspended from team following assault charge / dismissed following academic ineligibility
    51. Will Pericak (DL) - exhausted eligibility
    52. Ray Polk (DB) - exhausted eligibility
    53. Kirk Poston (DL) - graduated with eligibility remaining
    54. Christian Powell (RB) - still on team
    55. Kory Rasmussen (DL) - dismissed from team / transferred
    56. Austin Ray (TE) - transferred
    57. Paul Richardson (WR) - early Draft entrant
    58. Eric Richter (OL) - exhausted eligibility
    59. Doug Rippy (LB) - exhausted eligibility
    60. Kyle Slavin (TE) - still on team
    61. Terrel Smith (DB) - still on team
    62. Justin Solis (DL) - still on team
    63. Nelson Spruce (WR) - still on team
    64. John Stuart (DL) - transferred
    65. Gerald Thomas (WR) - transferred
    66. DaVaughn Thornton (TE) - graduated with eligibility remaining / transferred
    67. K.T. Tu'umalo (LB) - still on team
    68. Josh Tupou (DL) - still on team
    69. Chidera Uzo-Diribe (DL) - exhausted eligibility
    70. Paul Vigo (DB) - exhausted eligibility
    71. John Walker (DB) - still on team
    72. Kyle Washington (LB) - medical retirement from concussions
    73. Derrick Webb (LB) - exhausted eligibility
    74. Jordan Webb (QB) - exhausted eligibility
    75. Lowell Williams (LB) - graduated with eligibility remaining
    76. De'Jon Wilsom (DL) - still on team
    77. Alex Wood (FB) - exhausted eligibility
    78. Connor Wood (QB) - graduated with eligibility remaining
    79. Yuri Wright (DB) - still on team

    That's 48/79 that are either still on the team or graduated with all eligibility exhausted. That's attrition of 39.2%.

    I think this is where statistics lie. If I saw a newspaper article titled "CU football attrition rate of almost 40% since MacIntyre took over", I would criticize the article for being negatively slanted. Many of the players in that number graduated. A couple others went to go get paid by the NFL. A couple others had serious injury issues. And there were also some family reasons.

    Beyond that, there are only a handful of guys who didn't complete their potential eligibility that would have clearly made the Buffs a better team had they stuck around.

    In short, MacIntyre has largely turned over this roster but done it in a way that allowed guys to graduate and tried to save a number of players that have had off-field issues (behavior and/or academics). We have had attrition, but not necessarily "bad" attrition.

    The other way of looking at this is in terms of the players that have been recruited since MacIntyre took over.

    For the 2013 recruiting class + transfers, the following players were added to the program:

    1. Michael Adkins (RB) - still on team
    2. Chidobe Awuzie (DB) - still on team
    3. Bryce Bobo (WR) - still on team
    4. Connor Center (TE) - still on team
    5. Timothy Coleman (DL) - still on team
    6. Elijah Dunston (WR) - still on team
    7. George Frazier (FB) - still on team
    8. Jordan Gehrke (QB) - still on team
    9. Jimmie Gilbert (DL) - still on team
    10. Diego Gonzalez (K-tnfr) - still on team
    11. Gunnar Graham (OL) - decided not to play football
    12. Jonathan Huckins (OL) - still on team
    13. Gerrad Kough (OL-gs) - still on team
    14. Sam Kronshage (OL) - still on team
    15. Phillip Lindsay (RB) - still on team
    16. John Lisella (OL-gs) - still on team
    17. Sefo Liufau (QB) - still on team
    18. Derek McCartney (DL-gs) - still on team
    19. Kenneth Olugdobe (LB) - still on team
    20. Markeis Reed (DL) - still on team
    21. Deaysean Rippy (LB-tnfr) - still on team
    22. Devin Ross (WR) - still on team
    23. Ryan Severson (LB) - still on team
    24. Colin Sutton (OL) - still on team
    25. Jeffrey Thomas (WR-gs) - transferred / academic and off-field issues
    26. Tedric Thompson (DB) - still on team

    In his first year, MacIntyre brought in 26 guys. 24 of them are still here for Year Two. That's 7.7% attrition for that group. If anything, that number is lower than ideal.

    If you figure a recruiting class has 25 guys, a program would end up with 125 guys on scholarship if everyone redshirted and stayed in the program. Obviously, that doesn't happen.

    But let's say that you have 15 redshirts and then 4 other classes on your roster at any given time. (From that 2013 group, 16 redshirted last year).

    That leaves us with 70 guys on the active roster for 4 classes (Sr, Jr, So, Fr).

    If you bring in 22 guys a year and have 10% attrition, the numbers would shake out as follows:

    Freshmen: 22
    Sophomore: 20
    Junior: 18
    Senior: 16

    That totals to 76 guys, so with the 15 guys redshirting we at 91 and are still above the scholarship limit of 85.

    22 guys with 15% attrition yields the following number:

    Freshmen: 22
    Sophomore: 19
    Junior: 16
    Senior: 13

    That totals to 70, so with the 15 guys redshirting we are right on the 85 limit.

    Modifying this is that you'll want to bring in transfers from JUCOs and other D1 programs to backfill your upper class holes that develop through this normalized attrition rate of 15%. That way, you end up with the 85 players, but more of them are in the upper classes versus if you only brought in freshmen every year and had this attrition rate. Through the transfer market, the Junior and Senior classes will have closer to 20 guys. Also, by the time that the season rolls around there has usually been some late attrition that results in senior walk-ons being awarded scholarships to bring the total to 85. That often results in the Senior class being larger than the Junior class by the time the final roster for the season is set.

    Currently, CU's football roster with class breakdown looks as follows:

    Freshman: 30 (14 already redshirted)
    Sophomore: 24*
    Junior: 15
    Senior: 17

    *Note: assumes Shane Callahan (OL) has joined team as a sophomore transfer. Senior class may reduce by 1 if Josh Moten (DB) medically retires or Junior class if Jeffrey Hall (DB) does not find his way back from legal issues or Samson Kafovalue (DL) isn't able to stay on the team or maybe something else to get down to 85.

    When you compare the actual roster numbers to the normal 15% attrition rate, the Buffs are actually about where we would want to be in terms of class balance. Junior class is a bit too light and this is still a young team. However, the numbers are about right and it's getting there.

    But through retention of the guys brought in during Year One (2013 additions) that saw half the normal attrition rate and some strategic use of transfers, MacIntyre has been able to work with attrition of almost 40% from the roster he inherited 2 years ago and maintain pretty good class balance.

    Going forward, we don't want to stay at 7.7% attrition. We need that number to be in the 10-20% range for things to be at their healthiest. But retention was absolutely called for this past year and helped to normalize the roster.

    Also, it looks like with such a small senior class in 2015 (barring graduate transfers), it will take until 2016 before MacIntyre has a completely normalized class balance with upper classes full of guys who are here because they bought in. Almost all of the element of any team that are on the roster because they used their golden ticket, got comfortable, and were able to stick around for 4 or 5 years will have been weeded out by then. There was a lot of that element in CU football in recent years.

    In conclusion, I believe that roster turnover has been handled well by MacIntyre. We have had attrition where we needed it, but not so much that it crippled the talent level or team morale. Both attrition and retention has been very strategic, as has the use of the transfer market. I see a lot of moves that show me a coach doing what he can to win now by bringing in transfers and coaching up players he inherited instead of going with a youth movement. At the same time, I see building foundations for a sustainable future by keeping the roster balanced on class sizes. And it looks like this roster will be better set up in 2015 than 2014, with 2016 the year we finally see a roster at CU that looks like it should.
     
    aik, CUav8er, Yung Buffalo and 2 others like this.
  2. 96 Buff

    96 Buff Resident Commie Bastard Club Member Junta Member

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    I was told there would be no math.
     
  3. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Math is hard. But good stuff Nik. I don't think we want quite as high turnover as you mention, year over year. Otherwise we never get a nice big senior class (with the expectation it gives us a boost on the field for that year). 7% for each year sounds good to me.
     
  4. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    experience good. maturity good. system adoption good. low attrition good.

    talent levels?

    we will see. gb usually beat the teams he was "supposed" to beat and generally lost to the teams he was supposed to lose to. he was able to do this, in general, by fielding a tough team that followed his program plan. it works fine until you play someone with a lot more athletes that is also well coached. the difference between then and now is we're starting from a far, far lower level of base talent in the program. so the more athletic teams on the schedule would include a majority of our opponents. that wasn't true with gb in the b12 for the most part.

    foundationally, i like what mm is doing. to take a big step, however, we are going to need more guys that other p12 teams are sorry that they don't have. we need weapons to win.
     
  5. Daaah

    Daaah Club Member Club Member

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    It was true for GB at northwestern though, wasn't it?
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    You can do 7% per year, but you'd need to recruit smaller classes.

    If because of redshirt or transfer rules you have 15 guys sitting out every year, it would look like this:

    Unavailable: 15
    Freshman: 19
    Sophomore: 18
    Junior: 17
    Senior: 16

    So, your class size shrinks from 22 to 19 and you end up with about the same number of guys in your upper classes. Regardless of attrition rate, you can still only have 85 guys. There are only two ways to get around this and have a big senior class like you would like. One would be for about half your recruits to be JUCOs, so you're bringing in about 10 freshman and 10 juniors every year. The other is to not have class balance so that some years you have a huge senior class but maybe a tiny sophomore group to go along with it. I don't think the first of those approaches is feasible at CU. And I don't think that the 2nd one is the ideal organizational approach for having a consistent winner since it would give you peaks and valleys on the team's performance (peaking when the unbalanced classes are older).
     
  7. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Good response, would rep again. However, I think we wouldn't complain if HCMM had a class with unusually low attrition because he recruited a hell of a class that wants to stay in school :smile2:
     
  8. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    yeah, based upon what we've seen thus far, gb was a better recruiter both at nw and here. he got his share of playmakers and built around them. when everything breaks just right (and you beat the teams you are supposed to and then catch a few more wins that people aren't expecting), then you get CU 2001 b12 championship and his nw rose bowl team. he called it "catching lightning in a bottle." he called it that because he knew he didn't have the bodies, top to bottom, that certain opponents had.

    mm is starting from a worse base and is being asked to catch a lot more teams with more talent than gb had to face at either nw or CU at the time. that's why this foundational stuff is so important. narrow the gap through consistency and experience and build from there.
     
  9. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    I don't think you can compare Bartnett's recruiting to MM's recruiting given the drastic differences between the 90's and 2014 with technology at this point
     
  10. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    The tools may change, but the game remains the same. It's still about getting the 85 guys that give you a better team than the 85 guys your competitor has.
     
  11. Liver

    Liver modded mod Club Member Junta Member

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    since you weren't out of pampers during those eras, i will give your opinion all the credence it deserves. mm is further in a hole at this point relative to the competition than gb was back in the day. said another way, relative to the competition, mm inherited a bigger problem here than gb did. that said, gb recruited better, overall. but, it is still way early on the mm era. like i said, that's why this foundational stuff matters. take out some of the variables that beat you. narrow the gap by maximizing what you have. if it works out, it should at least get us looking more competitive and maybe then recruiting will start to look more like it should look-- minimum top 3rd in the p12 every year.
     
  12. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Absolutely. I was more talking about using one of the recruiting services as a guideline.

    I was 7 when Gary was hired and 13 was fired so I wasn't in pampers. MM absolutely inherited a much worse situation, no debate there and anyone who disagrees should be beat. I guess what I'm saying is that it's tough to compare the recruiting of the two given how the landscape has changed. I'm not really making any declarative statement on either's recruiting ability. I could very well be wrong though.
     
  13. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    You know, if we switch to 4- or 5-year scholarships as it sounds like may be happening, that could have a huge impact on what constitutes a healthy attrition rate for a program. For CU, high attrition would be a budget buster. Especially when you consider the way that CU accounts for the cost of athletic scholarships. Maybe Mac2 and RG see "under 10%" as a rate they'd like to see maintained.
     
  14. jobuff

    jobuff Club Member Club Member

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    For the 2013 recruiting class + transfers, the following players were added to the program:

    25. Jeffrey Thomas (WR-gs) - transferred / academic and off-field issues


    In his first year, MacIntyre brought in 26 guys. 24 of them are still here for Year Two. That's 7.7% attrition for that group. [/QUOTE]

    I know technically speaking Thomas was part of Coach Mac's class but JE brought him in and he grayshirted. so in reality the attrition number would be better. Thomas had issues from the beginning so I am not sure if Mac would have brought him in. I know there are other players who balance this but this one came to mind right away.
     
  15. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I know technically speaking Thomas was part of Coach Mac's class but JE brought him in and he grayshirted. so in reality the attrition number would be better. Thomas had issues from the beginning so I am not sure if Mac would have brought him in. I know there are other players who balance this but this one came to mind right away.[/QUOTE]

    Yeah. I wasn't really sure where to put him. He wasn't supposed to GS. Embree sent him home to keep him from burning a year after he got into trouble. Mac honored it and took him back, just like he honored all of the other Embree commitments. I thought it was fair.

    Honestly, there are issues everywhere with the math depending on how you want to quantify it. For instance, I went with the 2012 roster and used seniors in the numbers. Some of those guys graduating had a little something to do with MacIntyre, but many of them had nothing to do with him on that count. More accurate would have been to take all of the guys Mac inherited who still had eligibility remaining.

    That would drive the attrition rate from the 2012 roster much higher since it would have taken 7 guys out of the numbers for 41/72 of guys he inherited remaining in the program through the end of their eligibility or still with the program. That's 43% attrition in under 2 years from that group.
     
  16. jobuff

    jobuff Club Member Club Member

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    Yeah. I wasn't really sure where to put him. He wasn't supposed to GS. Embree sent him home to keep him from burning a year after he got into trouble. Mac honored it and took him back, just like he honored all of the other Embree commitments. I thought it was fair.

    Honestly, there are issues everywhere with the math depending on how you want to quantify it. For instance, I went with the 2012 roster and used seniors in the numbers. Some of those guys graduating had a little something to do with MacIntyre, but many of them had nothing to do with him on that count. More accurate would have been to take all of the guys Mac inherited who still had eligibility remaining.

    That would drive the attrition rate from the 2012 roster much higher since it would have taken 7 guys out of the numbers for 41/72 of guys he inherited remaining in the program through the end of their eligibility or still with the program. That's 43% attrition in under 2 years from that group.[/QUOTE]

    Your math is better than mine. Thanks for posting. Mac has also kept some folks who were looking to transfer (Crawley and Yuri Wright come to mind). I am very happy he kept them and i think both will leave CU better student athletes then they would with other coaches.
     
  17. aik

    aik Club Member Club Member

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    Damn, I had forgotten the name Vincent Hobbs until I read this. Now I'm sad.
     
  18. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Kyle Washington, too. I think that kid was going to be a player.
     
  19. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    2015 is the year we find out a LOT about this regime.
     
  20. pcbuff

    pcbuff Well-Known Member

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    I agree

    Wow Nik, thanks for taking the time to put this together.

    I think the current staffs retention has been a huge win and strength for this staff. They came in after three years that can generously be described as chaotic. They have given the kids a couple years of smooth sailing with relatively little off field garbage.

    I also agree they now have a good sense of what is in the ranks, and now need to start selectively managing some attrition.

    This plays in with my only criticism of this staff to date. (recruiting) As duff man said above, 2015 tells us a lot. When the signing day takes place this year, MM owns it. To date, he has only done one thing which I think falls into my F spectrum on grades. Over all, he seems to be a very good program manager and on field coach.
     
  21. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Abron gone.

    [tweet]491988890224308225[/tweet]
     
  22. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Figured something was up when he didn't appear on the most recent roster from cubuffs.

    And let's not forget the inevitability of this happening when Darth decided to pimp him (as he later did with Jenkins in hoops). :pissed3:
     
  23. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

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    Another Embree recruit gone. How many are left?
     
  24. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    A bunch. Not counting the guys that Embree recruited and MacIntyre signed, my quick count is 30 (including Hall). Also, 7 Hawkins guys left (including Moten).
     
  25. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

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    So we know who to count out... who did Darth tout in this class?
     
  26. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I used to get really positive about one or two guys per football class. Worked for Speedy. Not so much for Abron or Jenkins, even though talent wasn't the issue with either of them. :tongue2:
     
  27. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    I'm the same way. I was a huge Marcus Houston guy. Then I thought there was no way Darrell Scott could possibly fail. I thought Conrad Obi was a sure fire NFL prospect. I was positively giddy (yes - giddy) about Yuri Wright.

    I've had to temper my expectations a lot lately.
     
  28. J.R. Ewing

    J.R. Ewing Club Member Club Member

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    Glad you're not watching film for the buffs.:lol:
     
  29. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    RBs leaving is not a bad thing.
     
  30. patebuff

    patebuff Downgraded to half a star Club Member

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    :lol:
     

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