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CU was the 5th Most "Unlucky" Team in the Country in 2014

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Darth Snow, Dec 16, 2014.

  1. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I've been on the lookout for this, and wanted to see where we ended up with all those close losses (and one close win).

    At least, according to the rough draft.

    http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/12/16/7398531/college-football-ratings-second-order-wins

    Notable "Lucky" teams:

    FSU at #128 = luckiest team in the nation. Followed by Arizona. weird.

    Utah is # 4 at 125.

    Colorado State comes in at 116, or just outside the top 10 luckiest. Sparkles did good and got out.

    Notable "Unlucky" teams:

    STanford at #7, UMass (haha) at #6. Florida!! at #8. Pitt was #1.

    And of course, CU at # 5. (should have won 1.5 more times)
    I look at these rankings, and I wonder if these really show "luck" or are more likely to show coaching errors late in games. Because I don't think our close losses were all that unlucky. It felt like we earned them.

    One thing: positive "expected wins" v actual wins means the team probably improved. Progression via regression!
     
  2. BuffLuKe

    BuffLuKe Club Member Club Member

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    Probably a combo of both imho.
     
  3. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    In these types of things, doesn't "luck" mean deviation from what the stats would predict for wins?

    Anyway, this confirmed our impressions.

    Unfortunately, just because it came up tails last time doesn't mean we won't see tails next time.
     
  4. Undefeated

    Undefeated Banned BANNED

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    Yes, I'm sure it's a little of both. Bad calls by notoriously terrible P12 officials, poor coaching decisions and clock management and player mistake (RB going the wrong way on 4th and goal in 2OT vs Cal comes to mind).
     
  5. dply

    dply Doble hoja Club Member

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    [video=youtube;NbInZ5oJ0bc]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NbInZ5oJ0bc[/video]
     
  6. BuffNut99

    BuffNut99 Club Member Club Member

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    I think there was a cumulative effect in the close losses that resulted in lack of confidence, which can resemble bad luck. If Tedric's fumble-6 at Cal stands (and we go up 28-7 in that game), or if Oliver makes just one of those FGs in that game, I think we would have won 2-3 more games during the season simply because the team would have had confidence to pull out wins in subsequent weeks (Oregon St., UCLA, Utah).
     
  7. BuffUp

    BuffUp W.T.T.F. Club Member

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    We already knew that.
     
  8. GoonieBuff

    GoonieBuff Not really Club Member

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    I have a problem with mixing in turnovers with luck. Good defenses create turnovers and bad defenses don't. While many turnovers are luck, many aren't. I don't think anyone would consider Peanut Tillman's success at causing turnovers to be lucky.
     
  9. chipwich

    chipwich Administrator Club Member Junta Member

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    The bogus PI call on Crawley and then the non call on Spruce against OSU still irks me.
     
  10. Uncle Ken

    Uncle Ken Orr no morr Club Member

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    Love that scene.
     
  11. Uncle Ken

    Uncle Ken Orr no morr Club Member

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    Tedric's fumble return against (I think Cal) is mine.
     
  12. dply

    dply Doble hoja Club Member

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    Me too. I still believe I died in 2007ish and have been in purgatory ever since. Of course that belief comes mainly from being a CU football fan.
     
  13. Undefeated

    Undefeated Banned BANNED

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    Yep, not to mention overturning the INT by Terrell Smith in the Utah game. A few calls and plays here or there in the Cal, OSU, UCLA and Utah games, and you're looking at a 6 win, bowl eligible team. That doesn't include a 2nd half collapse against CSU either.
     
  14. Highlander

    Highlander Club Member Club Member

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    Sometimes, the simplest of answers is the correct one.
     
  15. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    :nod: I think that's the one loss where we weren't our own worst enemy.
     
  16. chipwich

    chipwich Administrator Club Member Junta Member

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    Yep. That was the game where Mac lost it and went after the refs.
     
  17. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    I was critical of MM the week before against CAL when he lost it arguing a PI call and was flagged. Had no problem with him chasing the refs off the field that day though.
     
  18. zbuff

    zbuff Club Member Club Member

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    I've always been advised that you make your own unluck.
     
  19. DBT

    DBT Club Member Club Member

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    Fate can be a fickle friend or foe. I can't help but to wonder how our season would've gone with a win in one of our first two conference games.
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2014
  20. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    We also ranked #1 for the past decade.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  21. Burrito Palazzo

    Burrito Palazzo huff my smug Club Member

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    All I get out of this is that we need to make more of our own.
     
  22. SINKRATZ

    SINKRATZ Club Member Club Member

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    The team, or the fans?
     
  23. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    Shirts?

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  24. Burrito Palazzo

    Burrito Palazzo huff my smug Club Member

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    It's a start.
     
  25. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    So using second-order wins and the trend for teams with a difference between 1.0 and 2.0 of increasing their win% by 0.094, or 5 wins in 2015.
     
  26. FLounder

    FLounder The Buffs will rise again! Club Member

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    Numbers!


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  27. gobuffs58

    gobuffs58 Well-Known Member

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    the call against crawley almost sent me to my grave
     
  28. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    So you're going to go against your own numbers and expect more?
     
  29. fatbuff

    fatbuff Well-Known Member

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    Nobody understands genius.
     
  30. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    I really do not give a ****, I just found it interesting because some were taking about trends the other day. Sue me.
     

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