I was actually asking that question seriously. Oh well.
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CU was the 5th Most "Unlucky" Team in the Country in 2014
- Thread starter Darth Snow
- Start date
5 wins sounds about right, really. (I love it when advanced stats just tell me I'm right).
No you weren't, you knew the answer you were looking for before I even responded
Honestly, I wanted to know if it changed your opinion after running the numbers. Seriously wanted to know. Sorry.
I knew full well when I calculated the wins from that data that it wouldn't have us at 7 wins as I predicted. I'd like to expand on that and include returning experience and other variables. Vegas won't have the line set at 7 wins either, and that's fine. My opinion at this point remains the same, 7-6.
To some extent, yes. However, I've read that essentially every fumble comes down to a 50-50 chance on the recovery as best as it can be modeled by an algorithm. The fumble creation also can be the result of the defense or offensive ineptitude (for instance, a strip is different than a fumbled handoff where the defense isn't within 5 yds.). I agree that better teams are more likely to create interceptions and force more fumbles, BUT I do think that luck plays a fair part in fumble recovery.
