truth
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Dennis Dodd: Texas to the Pac 12 makes sense
- Thread starter JimmyBuff
- Start date
truth
9-3 by the by-laws but there is some question as to whether or not the presidents (who gave Scott control during last years expansion) would just consider this an extension of what went on last year and thus not vote.
I said in another thread, but i would find it hard to believe that CU, UU, UA, and ASU would allow this to happen without guarantees of getting into California every year. Right now, CU gets a game in SoCal and a game in NoCal every year. They don't want to lose that.
If aTm sec-cedes, UT should do everybody a favor, including themselves, and go independent. It would be everybody's best interests.
UT is, for all intents and purposes, already independent. They have the benefit of built in scheduling that comes with affiliation with a conference.
There's a lot of guesses about what will happen. My personal opinion is that if A&M bolts, UT replaces them with somebody like SMU, Houston, Memphis, or UNM. UT likes having it's little kingdom over which it rules. Losing A&M will allow them to rule without a dissenting voice (except for Missouri, which won't actually dissent, but will always be looking for that elusive exit door).
There's a lot of guesses about what will happen. My personal opinion is that if A&M bolts, UT replaces them with somebody like SMU, Houston, Memphis, or UNM. UT likes having it's little kingdom over which it rules. Losing A&M will allow them to rule without a dissenting voice (except for Missouri, which won't actually dissent, but will always be looking for that elusive exit door).
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
I have serious doubts that UT and OU really want to go to the Pac-12. Why would they? They have it made in their current situation. Cupcake conference schedule. All the games within their geographic region.
Annual conference games against Pac-12 foes have absolutely ZERO appeal to OU fan. There is no OU alumni base in California, or Washington, or Oregon, or Arizona. OU alumni is in Oklahoma and Texas. That is where they want their games played.
OU also wants guaranteed wins, which they would not have if they went to the Pac 12 (or the SEC). OU has one goal and one goal only - winning games. They are not interested in money - they make plenty of money as it is. (That could obviously change if the conference television package drops).
OU (and I think Texas, too) #1 goal should A&M actually leave will be to bring in another team to fill A&M's shoes. TCU and BYU certainly fit that bill. A&M has a nice history but if they go SEC and a decent team comes in their place, not really much of a loss. Television money will be the same as long as Texas remains in the league.
Annual conference games against Pac-12 foes have absolutely ZERO appeal to OU fan. There is no OU alumni base in California, or Washington, or Oregon, or Arizona. OU alumni is in Oklahoma and Texas. That is where they want their games played.
OU also wants guaranteed wins, which they would not have if they went to the Pac 12 (or the SEC). OU has one goal and one goal only - winning games. They are not interested in money - they make plenty of money as it is. (That could obviously change if the conference television package drops).
OU (and I think Texas, too) #1 goal should A&M actually leave will be to bring in another team to fill A&M's shoes. TCU and BYU certainly fit that bill. A&M has a nice history but if they go SEC and a decent team comes in their place, not really much of a loss. Television money will be the same as long as Texas remains in the league.
Del
Well-Known Member
Dodds is on record stating he still wants the Bix XII to stay together if ATM walks. I've heard a lot of people bring up Houston but Dodds doesn't want them. I think they add SMU, Rice or BYU to fill ATM's spot. He then said if it dissolves they would look at forming their own conference with ND. I think Pac-12 is plan C for them so I think we are good.
sloppy seconds
Yep. OU and Texas are sitting pretty in the Big 12-2. They'll ride that conference as long as they can. A&M can be replaced--or not. What's the difference between a 10 team conference and a 9 team conference? Not much, except another guaranteed OOC home game for OU and Texas. I assume that if A&M leaves (which I would bet against) that Texas wouldn't play them regularly, just to **** with them.
If A&M goes to the SEC, they'd drop UT, not the other way around. A&M's hands will be plenty full with their conference schedule without adding UT to the OOC. There's a reason the SEC usually schedules patsy OOC teams - it's because the conference schedule is a killer.
I'm beginning to wonder if all this talk about UT going to the Pac 12 is just people screwing with us. It's Texas with it's panties in a wad that we had the audacity to leave without them.
BehindEnemyLines
beware the habu
IMO, beewhyyou is not a player in conference expansion talks. Scheduling becomes a nightmare when you have one conference team that will not play on Sunday's (applies mostly to b-ball). What conference would want that headache?
Nobody would, but I suspect if the Big 12 says to BYU "You'll get $15MM/Year to be our bitch and play any damn time we tell you to", they'd say "where do I sign?"
I think that what AustinBuff describes above is the most likely scenario. If aTm really leaves the Big 1+9, then the only other domino that drops will probably be a result of the SEC adding one more east team (probably FSU). I don't think they (the SEC) would go to 16 teams right now. If they did, they would be adding two of Texas, OU, OSU, Clemson, or Miami. I have nothing but a gut feeling but I just don't think it's gonna happen. In that event, the Whorns just add one more school and things are back to a comfy status quo for them and I think that in the end, that +1 team is BYU. They will have this year to see how being independent works and if they don't like it and see the writing on the wall, aTm's departure leaves them a nice out. Even with the revenue sharing (or lack thereof) in the Big 1+9, they're still making a lot more than they are or ever did.
The multi-million dollar question though is who will be the first conference to go to 16. I used to think that a Pac-16 wouldn't be such a bad idea. Now that the TV deal is done, I'm of the "kill it with fire" opinion. There just aren't enough quality teams in terms of academics, athletics, and location within a reasonable distance to make it worthwhile right now. Assume the Whorns aren't on the table (and I certainly hope to God that they wouldn't be), what 4 teams can we take that wouldn't be a reach in some way or another? The way I see it, the only quality options are basically OU and maybe Air Force. That leaves New Mexico, TTech, OSU, Boise, SDSU, and Fresno and most (if not all) of those are REACHES. I hope for our sake that we can put off any conference breaking the 16 team barrier for a couple years to give some schools a chance to become more worthy and to give Larry Scott time to figure out the best way to do it on our terms.
Simply put, I think that any situation where the Pac-12 is forced to REACT to conference dominoes falling puts us in a bad situation. If 16 team conferences are to become the standard, then we need to be at the front of the train and not the caboose. Otherwise we will not be happy campers.
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
I think BYU would be down the list. It is pretty far out of the current geographical area. The Big 12 would rather get TCU or SMU, I think. Houston is an outside shot. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Big 12 take a run at Arkansas - just to try and "one up" the SEC. Not sure they'd have a lot of luck with that, but a 10 team Big 12 conference with only Arkansas, OU, and Texas as "big dogs" would have some appeal. Arkansas is making a lot of money from the SEC but has nothing at all to show for it.
Why would we need to expand to 16 teams in the first place? So what if every other conference has 16 teams. I'm not convinced that means we have to do the same. 12 teams is a good number for us. It keeps us from reaching. Scheduling is good. The money is probably as good as it can get. I don't see the benefit of expanding to 16 teams, even if the SEC and B10 and ACC all have 16 teams. What's to say that they can't have 16 and we have 12?
Totally agree. The Pac 12 has a strangle hold on 2 of the 4 continental U.S. time zones and the other conferences expanding to 16 wouldn't change the fact that the Pac 12 is the only legitimate western conference.
Lt.Col.FrankSlade
Well-Known Member
I hope a 16 team conference doesn't come to be. It isn't a popular opinion but I actually like the Big 12's round-robin format where everyone is going to play everyone else, every single year. I don't like conferences so big that teams can't even play every other team in the conference. The whole "pod" system which would come with a 16 team conference is a terrible idea, imo.
If Gary Barnett is correct in saying that he sees a future of four 16 team super conferences, then it seems inevitable to me.
I agree.
superdeluxe
Member
MrFrumpylane
Well-Known Member
I'd prefer it this way too.
But what if said superconferences tell the Pac that we are not allowed to join their playoff system unless we have the same number of teams? Point being, it's easier (and not fair in their eyes) to reach the playoffs if you emerge as conference champion from a smaller pool.
soo.....no more Rammies? Want.
I wonder if Scott has a clause in the TV contract that would allow us to renegotiate if the conference expanded to 16? Presumably, Including, say, Texas and OU would make the conference more valuable. Because it would piss me off if we allowed those douchebags in and it resulted in cutting our revenue from 1/12th to 1/16th of the current deal. At the very least, I'd make them buy in big time if they are allowed to join.
Texas will not join the PAC. They will keep reforming the big 12 if needed, but they aren't going anywhere.