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Do Freshman QB's improve? SMQ breaks it down...

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Darth Snow, Jun 17, 2008.

  1. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    So what are our hopes for Little Hawk? Well, statistically, he has a great chance of being.... AVERAGE.

    http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/2008/6/17/553536/freshman-quarterback-revie

    Quick results: QB's revert to the mean in their second seasons. Only a very few QB's showed continued improvement season to season, and those are usually ballyhooed recruits that go into the NFL.
    Caveat: SMQ made NO attempt to bring the offensive line play, Wide receiver play, etc. into the equation. His theory was that a large enough sample size would make all things equal. I don't know if he reached a large enough sample, but it sure seemed to be enough to get a rough conclusion.

    His predictions based on the results:

    I looked up Cody's passer rating for last season. The "average" passer rating was about 131. Cody's is 119. I happen to think it should have been a lot higher due to an abnormally high number of dropped TD's and that Cody showed improvement through most of the season. However, the statistics show that the MOST we can hope out of Cody is something in the 135 range on a consistent basis. It is more likely it will be lower. However, Joel Klatt's best season was his first, and during that season he had a 140 rating (for comparison, his 2nd season Klatt had a 115 rating!)...

    I think we can all agree it would be great if Cody could hold onto something like the form Klatt showed in his first season. So it's not all doom and gloom, but the Ballenger lovers could have a point of contention if Cody does not improve.


    RankPlayerPosClGmPattPcompComppctIntIntpctPydsYdspattTDsTDpctRating

    80Cody Hawkins, ColoradoQBFR13463263 56.8017 3.673015 6.5122 4.75 119.8
    29Joel Klatt, ColoradoQBSO11358233 65.0810 2.792614 7.3021 5.87 140.2
     
  2. MontanaBuff

    MontanaBuff Club Member Club Member

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    Good info! I can buy into the stats to a degree, but there are too many variables to draw any real conclusions on an individual basis. If CU had five seniors on the line last year, or a 2,000-yard senior running back, we would be talking about the Buff offense taking a step back.

    As the players around the quarterback improve, the quarterback play will magically improve as well.:thumbsup:
     
  3. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    SMQ made the point (several times) that the purpose of the study was simply to find out if QB's actually improve (in the college game at least) after their freshman year as common wisdom suggests.

    By and large, he found that they don't. What you see is what you get. Basically, it just means that Cody is what most of us thought he was: A damn decent college/system QB (or at least, he should be) with serious physical limitations.

    He can't win games alone or pull the team across the finish line, but he sure can be a damn good "cog" that makes the offense run.

    However, we can always hope that the extra weight he put on this last offseason will change him into a world beater...
     
  4. Clean Undies

    Clean Undies Flagship of the 12-Pac Club Member

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    It would be sorely disappointing should Cody's TD:INT ratio fail to improve over the next few seasons.
     
  5. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    Well if nothing else he should have had +5 TD's or so this season due to drops alone.

    Even if his TD #s don't rise all that much (or at all) I would be supremely happy to see those INT's continue to drop like they did in the last few games of the regular season.

    Especially with the way our D is going to get lit up this year. Proliferation of spread + lack of DB's = BAD
     
  6. RalphieMalph

    RalphieMalph Well-Known Member

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    Klatt's first season he was also throwing to DJ Hackett and Derek McCoy... anybody's numbers would drop after losing both of those guys at once.
     
  7. 87toInfinity

    87toInfinity Well-Known Member

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    Agreed, but you can say that about a lot of quaterbacks...everyone has passes dropped, many for touchdowns, it is just part of the game! In a perfect world...haha yeah right..:smile2:
     
  8. The Monk

    The Monk Club Member Club Member

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    The entire internet needs to take an econometrics class.
     
  9. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    Trouble is sometimes when you do that you come up with Abortion = less violent crimes.
     
  10. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    INTERNETS NEED EDUCATION. IT WILL GROW THE TUBES!

    Ted steven's new slogan.
     
  11. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    On balance, he's right. A QB is only as good as the team around him unless he's a superstar. I don't think anybody here would classify Cody as a superstar. He does have a great chance to improve his stats based solely on the upgrades in talent around him.
     
  12. absinthe

    absinthe Ambitious but rubbish. Club Member Junta Member

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    Honestly if D. Scott is half the player we hope Cody should improve is TD/int ration and comp %, He'll likely throw for less yards but who cares.
     

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