Current Pac-12
Arizona: #67 Tucson
Arizona State: #12 Phoenix
Cal: #6 San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (w/ Stanford)
Colorado: #17 Denver
Oregon: #22 Portland (w/ Oregon State)
Oregon State: #22 Portland (w/ Oregon)
Stanford: #6 San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (w/ Cal)
UCLA: #2 Los Angeles (w/ USC)
USC: #2 Los Angeles (w/ UCLA)
Utah: #32 Salt Lake City
Washington: #13 Seattle/Tacoma
Washington State: #75 Spokane
Big 12 Options
Baylor: #89 Waco/Killeen/Temple (w/ Texas A&M)
Iowa State: #73 Des Moines/Ames
Kansas: #31 Kansas City
Kansas State: #136 Topeka
Missouri: #21 St. Louis
Oklahoma: #45 Oklahoma City (w/ Oklahoma State) plus reach into #5 Dallas/Ft Worth
Oklahoma State: #45 Oklahoma City (w/ Oklahoma)
Texas: #44 Austin plus reach into #5 Dallas/Ft Worth, #10 Houston and #37 San Antonio
Texas Tech: #142 Lubbock
Pretty clear here why no one is targeting Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State or Texas Tech.
Other Western Options (only listing states the Pac-12 isn't in due to media focus on not repeating markets)
Boise State: #113 Boise
Hawaii: #72 Honolulu
Nevada: #108 Reno/Sparks
New Mexico: #46 Albuquerque/Santa Fe
UNLV: #42 Las Vegas
Issues here are that New Mexico and UNLV are the only markets that somewhat matter, but they're likely too small to make the addition of these programs increase the revenue for everyone else. Plus, the Pac-12 feels like it can get these markets with the teams it already has. This last point is a big reason why there's no interest in Fresno State (#55 Fresno/Visalia) or San Diego State (#28 San Diego).
Basically, what this means is that the Pac-12 maxes out the media contracts it will get for the Mountain and Pacific regions so adding programs within the region doesn't add value. The value of going to 16 teams is if the 4 new teams add the Central time zone. That earlier game time gives the Pac an additional time slot for both football and basketball, thereby increasing the value of the conference for national media deals.
If the Pac-12 becomes the Pac-14 or Pac-16, the only viable way to do it is through the central time zone. And in that time zone, taking a program outside of a top 50 media market is a problem (you'd like to be in the top 35). The real value to the Pac-12 would be if there was a way to avoid the politics of "tag along schools" and secure Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas.
It looks like the Pac-12 will take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as a package. If Kansas and Missouri both look elsewhere, that severely limits options. Throw in the potential of Texas looking to the ACC and its revenue sharing package/ESPN affiliations, and finding two more programs becomes very difficult. Maybe Texas Tech is considered since it would help secure New Mexico and would give the conference additive leverage in getting onto Texas cable systems when paired with OU and OSU.
One outlier program that Larry Scott looked at is the University of Houston.
Here's the resume:
#10 media market
3rd largest state university in Texas
Top 50 American Research University (The Center for Measuring University Performance - 2010)
Football: Heisman trophy winner (Andre Ware) and over 20 bowl appearances
Basketball: 5 Final Fours and 19 NCAA Tourney appearances
Other Sports: 16 golf national championships, 18 baseball NCAA tourneys and 2 College World Series appearances, plus a ton of Olympians and success in Track & Field, Swimming & Diving and Volleyball.
2010 announcement that Robertson Stadium (32k seating) is being torn down and a new 40,000 seat stadium that is planned to be expandable to 50,000+ is being built.
With OU/OSU/TTU/UH, the Pac-16 could end up in pretty good shape when the dust settles. It would also probably nip all the political issues in the bud in Texas if everyone but the parochial school (Baylor) found a superconference home and a state university moved up in status.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_media_markets_and_college_football
Arizona: #67 Tucson
Arizona State: #12 Phoenix
Cal: #6 San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (w/ Stanford)
Colorado: #17 Denver
Oregon: #22 Portland (w/ Oregon State)
Oregon State: #22 Portland (w/ Oregon)
Stanford: #6 San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose (w/ Cal)
UCLA: #2 Los Angeles (w/ USC)
USC: #2 Los Angeles (w/ UCLA)
Utah: #32 Salt Lake City
Washington: #13 Seattle/Tacoma
Washington State: #75 Spokane
Big 12 Options
Baylor: #89 Waco/Killeen/Temple (w/ Texas A&M)
Iowa State: #73 Des Moines/Ames
Kansas: #31 Kansas City
Kansas State: #136 Topeka
Missouri: #21 St. Louis
Oklahoma: #45 Oklahoma City (w/ Oklahoma State) plus reach into #5 Dallas/Ft Worth
Oklahoma State: #45 Oklahoma City (w/ Oklahoma)
Texas: #44 Austin plus reach into #5 Dallas/Ft Worth, #10 Houston and #37 San Antonio
Texas Tech: #142 Lubbock
Pretty clear here why no one is targeting Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State or Texas Tech.
Other Western Options (only listing states the Pac-12 isn't in due to media focus on not repeating markets)
Boise State: #113 Boise
Hawaii: #72 Honolulu
Nevada: #108 Reno/Sparks
New Mexico: #46 Albuquerque/Santa Fe
UNLV: #42 Las Vegas
Issues here are that New Mexico and UNLV are the only markets that somewhat matter, but they're likely too small to make the addition of these programs increase the revenue for everyone else. Plus, the Pac-12 feels like it can get these markets with the teams it already has. This last point is a big reason why there's no interest in Fresno State (#55 Fresno/Visalia) or San Diego State (#28 San Diego).
Basically, what this means is that the Pac-12 maxes out the media contracts it will get for the Mountain and Pacific regions so adding programs within the region doesn't add value. The value of going to 16 teams is if the 4 new teams add the Central time zone. That earlier game time gives the Pac an additional time slot for both football and basketball, thereby increasing the value of the conference for national media deals.
If the Pac-12 becomes the Pac-14 or Pac-16, the only viable way to do it is through the central time zone. And in that time zone, taking a program outside of a top 50 media market is a problem (you'd like to be in the top 35). The real value to the Pac-12 would be if there was a way to avoid the politics of "tag along schools" and secure Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas.
It looks like the Pac-12 will take Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as a package. If Kansas and Missouri both look elsewhere, that severely limits options. Throw in the potential of Texas looking to the ACC and its revenue sharing package/ESPN affiliations, and finding two more programs becomes very difficult. Maybe Texas Tech is considered since it would help secure New Mexico and would give the conference additive leverage in getting onto Texas cable systems when paired with OU and OSU.
One outlier program that Larry Scott looked at is the University of Houston.
Here's the resume:
#10 media market
3rd largest state university in Texas
Top 50 American Research University (The Center for Measuring University Performance - 2010)
Football: Heisman trophy winner (Andre Ware) and over 20 bowl appearances
Basketball: 5 Final Fours and 19 NCAA Tourney appearances
Other Sports: 16 golf national championships, 18 baseball NCAA tourneys and 2 College World Series appearances, plus a ton of Olympians and success in Track & Field, Swimming & Diving and Volleyball.
2010 announcement that Robertson Stadium (32k seating) is being torn down and a new 40,000 seat stadium that is planned to be expandable to 50,000+ is being built.
With OU/OSU/TTU/UH, the Pac-16 could end up in pretty good shape when the dust settles. It would also probably nip all the political issues in the bud in Texas if everyone but the parochial school (Baylor) found a superconference home and a state university moved up in status.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_media_markets_and_college_football
