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Expansion: What seems to be happening

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Buffnik, Jun 9, 2010.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    As of 9:45 pm Mountain Time on 6/9/10:

    Lots can and will still happen, but it looks like the 2 things you can take to the bank are Nebraska to the Big 10 and CU to the Pac 10.

    Nebraska is voting Friday to make it official, but all the reports are that they have already said "yes" to an invitation. Every Big 10 board is treating Nebraska as the 12th member as a done deal.

    The rest of the Big 10 scenario seems to be that Missouri's 50/50. They would be paired with Notre Dame, so it's contingent on a "yes" from ND. For members 15 and 16, there is still a chance it would be Texas and Texas A&M. More likely is Rutgers with either Syracuse or Maryland.

    Colorado has the invite to the Pac 10 but the question is who we would be going with. The initial push is what has been reported: Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech. That may get broken up, however.

    Not only is there the Big 10 option, we still haven't heard from the SEC. There is absolutely no way the SEC is going to watch the Big 12 fall apart without making a major play to get into Texas. This one may depend on how united Texas and Texas A&M are in this whole deal. A&M would actually prefer the SEC, wanted to go there instead of the Big 12 back in 1994, and doesn't like the travel or the cultural fit in the Pac 10. Texas, though, will not be going to the SEC. The SEC may make a try for 2 or all 3 of A&M, OU and OSU. There's also a chance they could make a play for Missouri if MU gets left out of the Big 10.

    Some reports leaked today that the Pac 10 was taking a look at the University of Houston. Is it possible there's a backup plan in place that would send CU to the Pac 10 along with Texas, Texas Tech, Houston, Oklahoma and Utah? This would cost the conference zero televisions in the states of Texas and Oklahoma while bringing in the Salt Lake City market to completely secure the Mountain Time Zone. (Assumes Texas A&M and Oklahoma State to the SEC.)

    Would the Texas and Oklahoma politicians ever let that happen? Maybe. Since Houston is a public school and the 3rd largest university in Texas, there would be support. Plus, it would make it so 4 Texas schools are in superconferences instead of just 3. The state of Oklahoma wouldn't have much to gain or lose in the scenario. The politics of breaking up UT/TAMU and OU/OSU may be too difficult to surmount, but it may also be that if each agreed to play every year like CU does with CSU that their respective states would let them separate.

    Finally, there's the scenario of having staged expansion. Stage 1 would be Nebraska to the Big 10, CU and Utah to the Pac 10, and the Big 12 saving itself by adding Air Force and BYU (cultural fits with good programs, great facilities and international followings). This may actually be the most likely scenario. Stage 2 wouldn't kick off until the old guard at Notre Dame retired and the younger administrators who favor a conference opted to join the Big 10 (12).

    Anyway, that's what I was able to pull this evening from the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC boards. Crazy stuff. Things should start getting really crazy on Friday.
     
  2. SINKRATZ

    SINKRATZ Club Member Club Member

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    Question: as much as I love the Pac 10 without Texas - if we go only with Utah, what does that mean for a Pac 10 TV network and what does our $20 million become?
     
  3. OKCBuff

    OKCBuff Well-Known Member

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    Probably not more than $14 mil tops. That's probably too high. Adding CU and UU alone don't add a lot to the TV bill.
     
  4. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Hey Nik - mind if I steal this for tonights blog post?? :smile2:
     
  5. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    rward put the following data together:

    From the list of 210 markets (TV sets/% of country):

    Current PAC 10:
    18,932,120 / 16.48%

    PAC 10 with Utah and Colorado:
    21,825,300 / 18.998%

    PAC 10 with the south minus Baylor with CU:
    30,968,320 / 26.961%

    ***********

    What that works out to is that in the current Pac 10, the conference reaches 1.89 million television sets per member.

    In a Pac 12 with CU and Utah added, the conference reaches 1.82 million television sets per member.

    In a Pac 16 with CU, UT, TAMU, OU, OSU and TTU added, the conference reaches 1.94 million tv sets per member.

    While expansion to 12 with CU and Utah doesn't do much for a revenue split of a television contract, it's at least a break even because the conference adds a football championship game and 2 teams worth of additional programming and national television appearances (along with bowl game and basketball tourney revenue). Probably a net win but it's not a windfall.

    The 16-team expansion not only increases the number of tv sets per household, it also gives a 60% bump in the amount of programming, adds 2 of the super-elite college football programs, and brings the additional revenue of not only a conference championship game but, potentially, 2 semi-final conference playoff games if the NCAA decides to allow that. It blows every other deal out of the water.

    Estimates I hear are that a Pac 12 may get it as high as $15 million per member per year. Likely that's the high end and it's in the $12-15 million range. The Pac 16 option, with those members, takes the deal to at least $20 million per member per year. And that doesn't even factor in the potential of getting 2 automatic BCS bowl berths at $17 million apiece (with the potential for 3 in a fortunate year).
     
  6. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    On one condition: I get full credit if one of the scenarios plays out and it was all you if it ends up being complete B.S. :smile2:
     
  7. JimmyBuff

    JimmyBuff Well-Known Member

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    University of Houston to the pac 10? WTF?
     
  8. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Nice Nik

    So, do you know when we might here something concrete? Friday at midnight? Next week?
     
  9. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Done! :smile2:
     
  10. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Also - here is one personal scenario that I am thinking came about today.

    Everyone has heard that Mizzou might get shafted by the B10, and only kNU will be leaving. UT hears this tonight, and figures that they can probably cobble together the conference without kNU, and CU. And, from UT's perspective, they're right. They can go out and grab more Texas schools, or they can go for BYU, or AFA, or any number of MWC itching for a conference with a BCS bid. All the while maintaining an iron-clad grip on the B12. I think this has to be the most likely scenario at this point. I wouldn't be even a little surprised if kNU and CU are the only schools to leave now, and CU joins UU in the Pac12... for now.
     
  11. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    It threw me for a loop when I first read it, too.

    Here's the basic case for Houston:

    - 37,000 undergrads (3rd largest university in Texas)
    - most alumni in the Houston metro
    - makes the 2nd 100 of the ARWU rankings
    - does graduate research through every single department
    - was supposed to be in the Big 12 but the politicians railroaded Baylor in instead
    - 16 men's golf national championships, 5 men's basketball Final Fours, 20 bowl appearances with a Heisman and 10 conference titles, and a T&F program that has had guys like Carl Lewis

    The big negatives are that the facilities are really poor and the academics would be in the bottom half of the conference. I would guess that with $20 million or more a year from the conference versus what they currently get from C-USA and the huge alumni base getting energized from this announcement, that facilities would improve in a hurry. Plus, I would also bet that the Pac would have enough leverage to get UH to agree to certain academic milestones it would have to achieve.

    All in all, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world and would not mess with the Pac 10's culture anywhere near as badly as the inclusion of Texas A&M would.
     
  12. Timbuff10

    Timbuff10 Member

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    This is what I am hoping for and would be a dream come true for my CU hopes. Expansion can always happen again down the road and this is the safest thing for the pac10/12. Not to mention the lack of culture shock with not bringing all those hicks down south in.
     
  13. MrFrumpylane

    MrFrumpylane Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget distinguished UH graduate, Kenneth Lay!
    [​IMG]

    And dear old Fred Couples.
    [​IMG]
     
  14. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    All I've seen is that the Nebraska Regents are expected to vote on Friday. Considering that Tom Osborne is like 75 years old and the folks in Nebraska do what TO tells them to do, I'd have to assume that he'd want to get this handled soon after his 5am breakfast at Country Kitchen Buffet. I'm guessing we know pretty early on Friday.
     
  15. Mick Ronson

    Mick Ronson Well-Known Member

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    Jim Nantz. never hurts to have a media big in your corner (Rick Reilly excepted, I s'pose).
     
  16. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    So at least another day of this roller coaster ride :lol:

    Who knows what tomorrow will hold
     
  17. JimmyBuff

    JimmyBuff Well-Known Member

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    I would be against Houston.
     
  18. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Here is some random internet chatter posted on the Baylor board tonight... something to chew on before bed :smile2:

    http://www.baylorfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=192303
     
  19. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    huh. sounds like something BCS would post.
     
  20. Timbuff10

    Timbuff10 Member

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    This just screams that UT crunched some #ers and are figuring out that they can do at least the same financially by staying in the Big12 and only have to replace two schools. I am telling you guys, UT wants a conference that they can control and they are afraid the PAC isnt going to let them do that. Money talks but being able to control the conference you are in has to be worth a fair amount.

    Anyone know anything about what is going on with the Utah boards? I havent heard anything from their camp and they may just slide right in with us without even having to put up a fight.

    Nothing would be better than CU going to the PAC without the TX schools and for all those TX schools to be pissed off at each other for ever. Ha!
     
  21. JimmyBuff

    JimmyBuff Well-Known Member

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    I'm sure they are doing that. We need to get out. Conference is poison.
     
  22. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    "Does it make sense to save the Big 12?" is, I believe, the first item on the agenda when UT and TAMU meet tomorrow.

    I believe the possibility of them adding AFA and BYU while the Pac 10 adds CU and UU is very real. It breaks the Mountain West's BCS hopes and sets up a cooperative television package between the Big 12 and the Pac 12 which spans the west. This gets very hard to do, though, if Missouri also gets the Big 10 invite. I don't think the Big 12 can lose all 3 of us and survive.
     
  23. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    Another possibility - they add Houston and TCU to the south and move the Okie schools to the north. The only problem there is that it ****s up the RRS, and I don't think OU or UT would go for that. OTOH, if there's any truth to the Baylorfan chatter that there is a "revolt" brewing in the Texass legislature over UT ****ing over Baylor's Pac-16 chances (and I'm pretty damn skeptical of that ), an all Texass Big XII south would probably make all that go away....
     
  24. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    If the Texas legislature forced the issue and that happened, it would hurt UT in a bad way. Houston and TCU wouldn't add any tv sets the conference doesn't already have and they would end up poaching some recruits from the Longhorns and Aggies. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State don't want to leave the South, either. It's meant everything to them in recruiting and fundraising. The conference would have to add a fixed cross-divisional rival game, too, to accommodate UT and OU having to play every year. They'd have no problem getting their way, but it just seems like a bad deal. Part of me hopes it happens.

    (Basically, I just quoted you and re-stated everything you said. Realized that after I typed it. :lol:)
     
  25. SuperD

    SuperD Club Member Club Member

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    They could do it if they split the conference in such a way to use the "zipper" alignment that the PAC 10 has been proposing if they go to 12, basically you arrange the teams so they have one cross division rival that they play every year.
     
  26. Junction

    Junction Moderator Club Member

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    That's ok. After reading another thread I saw that Jimmy had already brought up the idea before I did. So you're free to steal it again... :lol:
     
  27. The Guest

    The Guest Guest

    This is what I read in those posts:

    Did anybody else get something different from that series of quotes?
     
  28. JimmyBuff

    JimmyBuff Well-Known Member

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    This could work and would be to our benefit if they could someway separate OU and UT to separate divisions. If Texas is allowed to do their proposed Longhorn network they might make more money in the long run. Possibility of two OU/UT games a year would be a nice TV catch for the networks.


    It would steal some of Larry Scott's mojo. CU and Utah aren't a huge get even though it would improve the financial standing of the Pac 10.
     
  29. ScottyBuff

    ScottyBuff Well-Known Member

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    An "All-Texas" southern division would play perfectly well into the Longhorn Network's plan however.

    If OU and OK-lite move to the north the schedule could be made to have the RRR early in the season as a locked game, with the expectation that they would meet again in the CCG.

    Jerry's World hosting UT-OU twice a year would sign off on that in a heartbeat.

    Memphis, Louisville, TCU, Houston, and New Mexico could all factor into expansion plans. Or the 10 team Big XII could just decide to remain as such with an increased share of the dollars per team due to CU and NU's exit penalties for the next two years. After that, they could then re-address the membership issues while also trying to fend off waves 2 and 3 in the realignment storm.

    Other scenario is that the Big Ten's second wave comes quickly, followed by an SEC response, and another overture by the Pac-10 to add UT. This is the "Kill the Big XII" scenario that would release us from any revenue reductions now.
     
  30. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    My head is spinning..... :lol:
     

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