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Get to know Fresno State

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Buffnik, Jul 6, 2012.

  1. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    It's really long, so you'll need to follow the link.

    Good stuff with a lot of detail.

    Here's the stuff on QB Derek Carr:

    Derek Carr (6’ 3”, 205 lbs., Jr.) is listed as the starter at QB on the Spring Depth Chart. Carr is a returning starter. Last season, Carr started all 13 games. Last season, Carr was selected to the 2011 All-WAC (Western Athletic Conference) Second Team as a quarterback. Carr’s Key Individual Statistics From Last Season: [Passing Statistics]: 13 games played; 279 total completions out of 446 total passing attempts (62.6% completions); 9 total interceptions out of 446 total passing attempts (2.0% interceptions); 26 total touchdown passes (2.0 touchdown passes per game played); and averaged 272.6 passing yards per game played. [Rushing Statistics]: 72 total net rushing yards out of 57 total rushing attempts (1.3 net rushing yards per attempt); 3 total rushing touchdowns (0.2 rushing touchdowns per game played); averaged 5.5 net rushing yards per game played; and his longest rush was 20 yards.

    QB Derek Carr (Jr.) has been very effective at distributing passes among multiple receivers/backs. Last season, Carr had 6 receivers/backs with 32 or more total receptions (56, 50, 44, 40, 35, and 32 total receptions). Combined with the spread formation, such distribution causes an opponent’s secondary and linebackers to be both vertically and horizontally stretched out across the field. Such vertical and horizontal stretching severely weakens an opponent’s pass defense. (Visualize the weakening of an inelastic object as it is stretched out).

    QB Derek Carr (Jr.) has an unusual inconsistency in his individual statistics regarding accuracy. Separately, I would grade his interception percentage (2.0% interceptions) as an “A” and grade his completion percentage as a “C Plus / B Minus.” The lower completion percentage may be attributed to dropped passes or incorrect pass routes. Nonetheless, the interception percentage is far more important. Carr threw only 9 total interceptions out of 446 total passing attempts, which is extremely impressive.

    This season, QB Derek Carr (Jr.) will be among the elite traditional passing quarterbacks in the nation if he produces the same results as last season, but raises his completion percentage above 70%.

    Unfortunately, QB Derek Carr (Jr.) must learn a new offensive system, which will certainly affect his performance.


    Read more: http://mwcfootballanalysis.wordpress.com/
     
  2. liverflukes

    liverflukes Resident Bear Club Member

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    Who is CU's f*cking QB? That's what I want to know. If nothing else, it affects me for 2013 when you all get to see our pretty new toy stadium.:canabis:

    Seriously, I think the Fresno QB has potential (having seen him up close) and he will do well on offense - new system or not. If you guys get no pass rush, he will tear sh*t up. Of course, he still has to learn that new system. Prediction for their QB: Unknown.

    Stream of consciousness thoughts and whatnot:

    That fan base and stadium already hates you - in case you didn't know -but you've been there and done that so it falls to a young crew and "newish" coach dealing with adversity on the road. I think you overcome that this year so I guess the other important question for this game (which is the mystery of all mysteries this year IMO) is how will you do on this first road trip? Prediction: Pass

    Even if the crowd and their O-line sucks how will you attack Carr? This question hinges on your whole defense and I'm not sure anyone can answer until all practices are over. Even then, the real game is different. Meh...
    CU D Prediction: Unknown.

    Who can run on either team? For that matter, is the O-Line on either squad established yet? Meh....
    O-Line and Running Game Prediction: Unknown.

    Fresno's D? Do they have any? Who is fast or big? Hell if I know...still, it's their unknowns on D against your unknown O-Line, RBs and QBs. Meh...
    Fresno D Prediction: Unknown.

    Special Teams? Will this be a low scoring game where FGs and Punting is a factor? Even Vegas will be stymied. Anyone got stats on either team?
    Prediction: Unknown.

    My team played your teams almost a year apart. Many have graduated. Many new recruits have been added to both teams. It will be interesting to see depth charts on both squads. Of the many games I plan to follow this season, this one gives me the most unknowns.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2012
  3. Jens1893

    Jens1893 Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Any relation to David?
     
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  4. leftybuff

    leftybuff Iconoclast Club Member

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    Uh yeah....
     
  5. Sexton Hardcastle

    Sexton Hardcastle Club Member Club Member

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    Really worried about this game. :(
     
  6. newkid

    newkid Member

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    I remember being worried about this game last year, not because I thought they'd be good, but because I was afraid we would be terrible. I was only half wrong. Either way, this is a must win game for you guys. Losing would be hugely embarrassing. Please.
     
  7. Burrito Palazzo

    Burrito Palazzo huff my smug Club Member

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    LF's posts are better at night. I wonder why that is?
     
  8. Buffellow85

    Buffellow85 Well-Known Member

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    prolly because he drinks during the day
     
  9. liverflukes

    liverflukes Resident Bear Club Member

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    I have a slamming headache this morning and am craving greasy comfort food. I think I posted way too much last night and visited too many forums. :huh:

    Still, my evening comments/questions seem legit this afternoon.
     
  10. MontanaBuff

    MontanaBuff Club Member Club Member

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    My two cents worth ...

    Fresno State - September 15th - at Fresno

    Looking back ... Fresno State went 4-9 in 2011, with a 3-4 record in Western Athletic Conference play. The Bulldogs were out-manned, but hung tough on the road against Cal (36-21) and Nebraska (42-29). Fresno State also gave Mississippi all it could handle before succumbing, 38-28, in late September. While those losses might have been forgiven, what might have been the beginning of the end of the tenure of long time head coach Pat Hill was an embarrassing Friday night home loss on ESPN against Boise State. The Broncos made the Bulldogs look bad, coasting to a 57-7 victory from which Fresno State did not recover. The Bulldogs, with Hill's job potentially on the line, lost close games to San Jose State (27-24) and San Diego State (35-28) to close out the season.

    Personnel ... On July 1st, Fresno State, along with Nevada and Hawai'i (football only) became members of the Mountain West Conference. The Bulldogs join the MWC with a clean slate and a new head coach, Tim DeRuyter. With new offensive coordinator Dave Schramm directing the show, Fresno State is adopting a no-huddle, spread offense. Junior quarterback Derek Carr (yes, brother of David) did just fine under Pat Hill, throwing for 3,544 yards last season, with 26 touchdowns to only nine interceptions. He should do even better under DeRuyter. Carr has many of his top receivers back, though John Saunders, who had 13 touchdown catches in 2011, announced after spring practices that he planned to transfer. The running game will be ably manned by returning senior starter Robbie Rouse, who was ninth in the nation in rushing in 2011, averaging 119 yards per game.

    The defensive picture does not look as rosy, however, as DeRuyter attempts to install the 3-4 defense DeRuyter ran as the defensive coordinator at Texas A&M. The defensive line resembles that of Colorado's - a work in progress. Coming out of spring practices, the Fresno State defensive line had been re-shuffled to the point where none of the three projected starters has ever started a college game. All-WAC linebacker Travis Brown returns, but he sat out spring practices with a shoulder injury.

    Statistically ... Going up against a team with a new head coach and a new philosophy, it's hard to impose 2011 statistics upon the 2012 Fresno State team. Still, the numbers from last season give a fair indication of what to expect from the Bulldogs in 2012. Fresno State was good on offense last year - ranking 27th in passing offense and 37th in total offense - but was not as proficient on defense - ranking 100th in total defense and 106th in scoring defense. As Fresno State makes its transition from the Wacky WAC to the point-a-minute Mountain West, it will likely put up similar numbers. The Bulldogs have stars returning from a very good offense, and have few returning starters from a porous defense. Look for more of the same in 2012.

    Preseason Prediction ... We will know a great deal about the 2012 Fresno State Bulldogs the week before Colorado heads out to central California for a night game on September 15th. After opening the 2012 season against Weber State from the Big Sky Conference, Fresno State takes on Oregon in Eugene. Pat Hill's Fresno State team was known for taking on all-comers in non-conference play, and for playing very well against top competition. How well Tim DeRuyter's Bulldogs survive the trip to Oregon will tell us a great deal about how the returning players are responding to the new coach. Colorado could - and should - enter this game with a 2-0 record. The long road losing streak monkey is also off the Buffs' backs, with Colorado riding a one-game road winning "streak" for the first time since 2007. Still, this is a night game, on the road, against a mid-major team which can pass the ball with great efficiency (can you say "Toledo"?). Scoring shootouts are not what Jon Embree's Buffs are all about. I would very much like to be wrong about this, but, at least for now ... Fresno State 27, Colorado 17.

    FWIW - In the most recent poll at CU at the Game, 67% thought CU will go 3-0 in non-conference play; 30% said 2-1; 2% 1-2; and 1% 0-3 (CSU trolls).
     
    Buffalo Brad and OrangeBowl like this.
  11. Sexton Hardcastle

    Sexton Hardcastle Club Member Club Member

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    Great write up MB.
     
  12. newkid

    newkid Member

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    Nebraska was the only big game where they were in it for a while. At Cal, the score is deceiving. The bears had two TD's and all around great drives called back for stupid holding calls. Also, 7 of their 21 points came on Maynard's very first drive following a pick 6. Their offense only managed 14 points. It was much worse than 36-21. I think I'm more optimistic than most Buffs fans. Losing is not an option.
     
    Last edited: Jul 7, 2012
  13. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Until we've seen this team string together several good road performances, it's hard for us to expect anything but a different and horrible team when it goes on the road. Take the 2010 road performance against Cal and compare it to the 2011 home performance against Cal, for example. Two completely different teams.

    What has us so nervous about this season is that our most winnable games are largely on the road and our toughest opponents are at home. If we were confident, that's usually they type of setup that has a fanbase expecting 8-10 wins. But we're pretty beat up at this point.
     
  14. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    We're gonna win
     
  15. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

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    Let's look at some simple facts here:

    1. Frenso State is changing offenses from a pro style offense to a spread offense. A spread offense will have more WRs to cover but it appears that we have quite some experience in that department plus our DL should be able to put pressure on Carr.

    2. Let's look at Frenso State's rush D from last year:

    http://statistics.ncaafootball.com/...page=cfoot/stat/ncaa-team-rushing-defense.htm

    They were #72 after giving up 34 rushing TDs and about 166 per game. CU was 83 but gave up eight less TDs on the season.

    3. Frenso State's Pass D was worse than its Rush D last season:

    http://statistics.ncaafootball.com/...all&page=cfoot/stat/ncaa-team-passing-def.htm

    Also Frenso State has the highest % of upperclassmen on any roster according to Phil Steele: http://blog.philsteele.com/2012/07/02/of-sr-jr-soph-frosh-on-a-roster/

    They might have all that experience but they weren't that good last year so why should it be any different? We had two senior heavy teams the last several seasons and it did nothing for us in the Big 12 and Pac-12.

    And Frenso State lost to both New Mexico State and San Jose State. What does that tell :you:?
     
  16. Sexton Hardcastle

    Sexton Hardcastle Club Member Club Member

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    Like someone above said earlier, it's hard to trust stats when their is a new HC at Fresno. I'm not saying we should mark this down as a loss. I just don't see how anyone is confident heading up to this game.
     
  17. Quattro

    Quattro Banned BANNED Club Member

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    Impossible the only team that has issues is us.
     
  18. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Nash is saying we have experience in the secondary and we should be able to pressure Carr with a very inexperienced DL? Huh?

    This game is going to be close and we will likely have to win with offense.
     
  19. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Close games are usually won with special teams.
     
  20. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    So much of this season hinges on special teams and turnover differential.
     
  21. Sexton Hardcastle

    Sexton Hardcastle Club Member Club Member

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    Yes.

    I believe it's going to be a shootout. Hopefully our offense will be ready to step up. Not so sure about the defense however. Greg Brown has his hands full with this squad.
     
  22. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

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    Exactly right. FSU will have their issues. Will confidence be one of them after playing in Eugene the previous weekend?
     
  23. BuffLuKe

    BuffLuKe Club Member Club Member

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    Let's hope special teams will be improved a ton or we are up **** creek without a paddle.
     
  24. 4DemBuffs

    4DemBuffs Most admired poster Club Member

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    the only g-ded thing i want to know about the fsu game is how both teams look going into that week.

    the rest of this crap is just that. crap.

    CU could be on its third starter at QB by that time.
     
  25. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

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    I hope we don't get to that point...it could mean it's time to focus on basketball.
     
  26. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Sure, but we have to be much better on offense in 2012 for special teams to matter. Scoring under 20 points in most games will not cut it, it needs to be closer to a 30-point average. We are still going to give up plenty of points on defense (might be bottom third in the conference with the inexperience), so the offense will need to provide some more relief this season.
     
  27. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    When you consider the number of guys from our offense the last couple years who have at least had a cup of coffee in the NFL, it is completely inexcusable that we have been so bad.
     
  28. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    I don't want to know anything further about Fresno State. This game smells like too many of the **** games that we've seen over the past few years (Hawaii, CSU in 09, Toledo, Eastern Washington)
     
  29. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

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    Agreed. I've seen numerous teams adapt to a new spread, and it is always a hot mess. CU should win this game, and I will be a bit pissed if they don't.
     
  30. ROFLCOPTER

    ROFLCOPTER Member

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    Oddly enough, historically Fresno State's strong point has been special teams, especially blocks (By far the most in the NCAA over the past decade or so). Pat Hill never shied away from putting his absolute best athletes on ST and it paid dividends. I doubt DeRuyter will change that.
     

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