Got a hunch about these Buffs and upcoming Postseason play....

[CVilleBuff]

I think we could potentially end up being slightly better next season. Obviously a bunch of factors play into that, but losing a star yet having stringer guard play may well lead to that. With that said, I could also see us looking back and cursing ourselves for not making more noise with a Senior JS if the pinnacle of our March Madness is beating Wazzu.

 

[BuffG]

'10-'11 was a lot of fun. They could score the ball and it was so nice to see good basketball after the previous years.
'11-'12 became my favorite team, though I wasn't in love with them before the Pac-12 tournament.
'13-'14 was then my favorite until Spencer went down. In the end, '11-'12 remains the season.

This season can top '11-'12 still. #MarchTadness is upon us. Get your popcorn out.

Depends on your metrics. I'm going by which team was the most pleasurable for me to watch throughout the season. Obviously, '13-'14 is coulda/woulda/shoulda. '11-'12 had the benefit of playing against the worst collection of PAC teams in recent memory. The regular season champs (Wash) didn't get invited to the dance. '11-'12 had the most impressive March but probably the 2nd worst reg season performance in Tad's tenure. Just another example of how much matchups determine tournament results.

'10-'11 beat more ranked teams (4) than any team in Tad's history. They had a top 10 KenPom offense, a lottery pick, an all-time Buff in Higgins, B12 6th man of the yr Levi, & the emergence of Dre. They were the most talented & fun team to watch. Too bad they had to be a harbinger for bad scheduling.

 

[Buffnik]

Depends on your metrics. I'm going by which team was the most pleasurable for me to watch throughout the season. Obviously, '13-'14 is coulda/woulda/shoulda. '11-'12 had the benefit of playing against the worst collection of PAC teams in recent memory. The regular season champs (Wash) didn't get invited to the dance. '11-'12 had the most impressive March but probably the 2nd worst reg season performance in Tad's tenure. Just another example of how much matchups determine tournament results. '10-'11 beat more ranked teams (4) than any team in Tad's history. They had a top 10 KenPom offense, a lottery pick, an all-time Buff in Higgins, B12 6th man of the yr Levi, & the emergence of Dre. They were the most talented & fun team to watch. Too bad they had to be a harbinger for bad scheduling.

Timing helps. '10-'11 was so much fun for me mostly because the program had finally broken through and the rebuild had worked.

Time helps, too. Losing at Georgia, San Francisco, Harvard and Nebraska was horrible. But the sting isn't what it was and I'd almost forgotten those games until I looked them up (except SF... that one lingers.)

My clearest memories from this regular season over time are going to be the Oregon, Cal and Arizona wins, just as from that season it's those home wins over Mizzou, OSU and UT, the Vegas tourney my wife and I went to with the win over Indiana, and the sweep of KSU. That was a fun year. This has been too. Post-season means so much, though, on where it will be in the final analysis.

 

[BuffNut99]

I have a hunch that Dom is going to have a career game this postseason and basically win a game for us.

 

[aghcsm]

I have a hunch that Dom is going to have a career game this postseason and basically win a game for us.

Were you thinking of, maybe, the Wazzu game?

 

[Birch1]

I have a hunch that Dom is going to have a career game this postseason and basically win a game for us.

Even a stopped clock gives the right time twice a day.

 

[Birch1]

I couldn't resist.

But truthfully, I dig our melancholic point guard, and think he's going to break out next year. This year, though, is sort of like a Daniel Johnston song.

 

[aghcsm]

I couldn't resist.

But truthfully, I dig our melancholic point guard, and think he's going to break out next year. This year, though, is sort of like a Daniel Johnston song.

That attachment was cruel to my ears. I vote a week suspension for Birch1 as punishment.

 

[Birch1]

That attachment was cruel to my ears. I vote a week suspension for Birch1 as punishment.

Haha. I'll take it. But I love that guy.

 

[Uncle Ken]

I couldn't resist. But truthfully, I dig our melancholic point guard, and think he's going to break out next year. This year, though, is sort of like a Daniel Johnston song.

Like he's looking for a heartbeat? Wait, who's this guy again?

 

[Eggon]

I have a hunch that Dom is going to have a career game this postseason and basically win a game for us.

If Dom connects, we could really make opponents Uncomfortable. I see him as the Backcourt guy who could elevate a bit, like we are starting to get from Z and Josh. Could be a real sign of progress.

Potential to be a very fun post season.... May want a little Irish stew, and a damn fine flatscreen. It is near.... This postseason.

 

[Daaah]

Haha. I'll take it. But I love that guy.

Definitely not for everyone, but I always kinda liked Love Wheel.

 

[GoBuffs!!]

Time helps, too. Losing at Georgia, San Francisco, Harvard and Nebraska was horrible. But the sting isn't what it was and I'd almost forgotten those games until I looked them up (except SF... that one lingers.)

I was at that game ~5 ft from the infamous TO call, still get nightmares about that.

But it was more memorable for two other items.
- Nate trying to fight the USF coach
- USF handing out "Bust the Buffs" t-shirts before the game, and sure enough that's exactly what they did...

 

[darth-horax]

best 3 point shooting percentage in the PAC
deepest bench in the PAC

punchers chance. I'll take it.

 

[Buffnik]

best 3 point shooting percentage in the PAC
deepest bench in the PAC

punchers chance. I'll take it.

Looking at KenPom's team page for Colorado:

On offense, #16 in the nation in 3P% but #332 in 2P%. This team has been more likely to knock down a contested 3 pointer than a contested layup. Also does very well on FT% (#53) and Offensive Rebounding % (#43) but is horrible on getting its shots blocked (#293) and allowing steals (#327). That adds up to an overall O Rating of #117. Basically, it's a NIT bubble team in terms of the offense in a weird way -- good or bad at different things with nothing in between. Which is why we see this team being so damn hard to beat when it moves the ball well (plays inside-out) without turning the ball over. On those nights (or those game segments), the things it does so well come to the forefront.

On defense, the Buffs are back to playing Tadball this season. #24 defense in the nation. Starts with being #13 in avoiding offensive rebounds by opponents. #46 in eFG% (combo of defending 2P, 3P and not giving up FTs). Also #57 in Block%. Only thing it doesn't do well is steal the ball (#294) / force turnovers (#325).

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Colorado

All of the above just cements what we've been saying all season as the key for this team's success. Defend, rebound and value the ball. When all 3 of those things happen, the offensive firepower is there to beat anyone and they're good enough to beat a pretty good team even on an off shooting night.

 

[scoob]

Looking at KenPom's team page for Colorado:

On offense, #16 in the nation in 3P% but #332 in 2P%. This team has been more likely to knock down a contested 3 pointer than a contested layup. Also does very well on FT% (#53) and Offensive Rebounding % (#43) but is horrible on getting its shots blocked (#293) and allowing steals (#327). That adds up to an overall O Rating of #117. Basically, it's a NIT bubble team in terms of the offense in a weird way -- good or bad at different things with nothing in between. Which is why we see this team being so damn hard to beat when it moves the ball well (plays inside-out) without turning the ball over. On those nights (or those game segments), the things it does so well come to the forefront.

On defense, the Buffs are back to playing Tadball this season. #24 defense in the nation. Starts with being #13 in avoiding offensive rebounds by opponents. #46 in eFG% (combo of defending 2P, 3P and not giving up FTs). Also #57 in Block%. Only thing it doesn't do well is steal the ball (#294) / force turnovers (#325).

http://kenpom.com/team.php?team=Colorado

All of the above just cements what we've been saying all season as the key for this team's success. Defend, rebound and value the ball. When all 3 of those things happen, the offensive firepower is there to beat anyone and they're good enough to beat a pretty good team even on an off shooting night.

And, not coincidentally, those are the factors that correlate most closely with NCAA tournament wins. I did a little research a while ago using the past three tournaments and these, in order, correlated with wins:

1) eFG% differential
2) TO% (offense)
3) eFG% (defense)
4) RB differential

These are the only factors that had any material correlation with wins in the tournament.

CU is very good at #4, pretty good at #1 and #3, and terrible at #2. If they can take care of the ball, they could make some noise.

FWIW, I found no correlation on defensive TO%. The days of 40 minutes of hell may be gone.

Btw, this was based on a team's statistics prior to the NCAA tourney each year.

 

[Eggon]

Forensic assessment per my hunch, there was reason for optimism = first half, and unfortunately the "wheels did come off Buffs guard play"='2nd half. Sadly, still the unwanted Dance first round BBye.

Perhaps staff, and majority of this years team, with some positive player adds pending, will use this to break through next year. Going to miss Josh, great guy and great player, but now let's emerge from first round in 2017. I did like the recovery in 2016 a bunch, after a pronounced program regression in 2015. We are back on the rise, looking forward to progression in 2016-17.

 

[aghcsm]

Forensic assessment per my hunch, there was reason for optimism = first half, and unfortunately the "wheels did come off Buffs guard play"='2nd half. Sadly, still the unwanted Dance first round BBye.

Perhaps staff, and majority of this years team, with some positive player adds pending, will use this to break through next year. Going to miss Josh, great guy and great player, but now let's emerge from first round in 2017. I did like the recovery in 2016 a bunch, after a pronounced program regression in 2015. We are back on the rise, looking forward to progression in 2016-17.

Nice wrap-up to the original post. No doubt things could have been different...if only...