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Home Court Advantage & PPG Home/Away

Discussion in 'Colorado Basketball Message Board' started by jgisland, Nov 2, 2011.

  1. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    I have put together a bunch of stats and will post ones I find interesting as the season goes on. Here are a couple on Home vs Away Point Per game scoring as well as one on Home Court Advantage for last year. Home court advantage is calculated on Home Win % - Away Win %.




    TeamHome PPGAway PPGDiffHCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent)
    ARIZONA79.973.76.231.304
    ARIZONA ST64.763.31.434.5029
    CALIFORNIA7668.27.832.706
    COLORADO84.77410.755.1136
    OREGON72.865.47.422.5274
    OREGON ST72.665.76.913.3928
    STANFORD68.963.75.228.5425
    UCLA70.769.31.440.1515
    USC66.366.20.134.2857
    UTAH71.363.18.222.6006
    WASHINGTON90.576.813.750
    WASHINGTON ST75.869.8626.5734



    A couple of noteworthy things.

    1) CU played very well at home last year, scoring 10.7 PPG more at home than on the road and winning 55% more games at home than on the road.

    2) UCLA didn't score many more pts at home than away (1.4), but won 40% more games at home than on the road. This year UCLA will be playing their "Home" games at the Los Angeles Sports Arena which is right next to USC as Pauley Pavilion is being renovated.

    Good article on their attempted adjustment to their new home here.

    3) Washington was a monster at home
     
  2. CVilleBuff

    CVilleBuff Club Member Club Member

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    We're going to have some epic battles with Washington in upcoming years - some 105-103 type games.
     
  3. btbuff

    btbuff It's an inside joke Club Member

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    It would be awesome if we did this exact thing for the last couple years. Find out who has had the best average home field advantage. I'm guessing Washington.
     
  4. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Another great post, jgisland.

    YMSSRA

    Someone please hit him with their rep stick for me.

    ******************

    Where we need to get is to be almost impossible to beat at home for anyone except the true elites while winning 50% on the road. When we get there, we'll be a consistent tournament team.
     
  5. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    I hit him hard with my rep stick.
     
  6. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    btbuff you are quite correct, Washington has had the best home court advantage over the last 5 years. However the Buffs are # 2 in HCA and PPG differential.

    Below is the info for HCA (Home court advantage, which is calculated by Home Court Win % - Road Win %) as well as PPG differential (calculated by avg home points per game scored - avg away points per game scored).

    2010/20112009/20102008/20092007/20082006/20075 YR AVG
    TeamHCA factor (Home Winning Percent - Away Winning Percent)
    ARIZONA31.30432.3863636466.81812.59.04977375630.41166384
    ARIZONA ST34.502938.7559808621.2532.0261437930.5555555631.41811604
    CALIFORNIA32.70638.2352941238.8891.21212121215.5555555625.31957195
    COLORADO55.113664.58347.05916.92331.666743.06902
    OREGON22.527421.5311004815.29433.3333333332.1428571424.96576172
    OREGON ST13.392829.2307692325.4816.04395604419.0283400818.63532692
    STANFORD28.542545.8333333345.70134.5238095230.5555555637.03131118
    UCLA40.151532.524.2113.33333333325.2136752125.08180697
    USC34.285750.5681818263.8893.0303030332.8063241136.91587957
    UTAH22.600619.607841.34638.636355.357135.50958
    WASHINGTON5049.473684213022.581.6666666746.72807018
    WASHINGTON ST26.573443.7510.795-5.7692307714.9797570918.06587617
    PPG H/A DIFF
    TEAM2010/20112009/20102008/20092007/20082006/20075 YR AVG
    ARIZONA6.25.35.38.52.95.64
    ARIZONA ST1.43.16.710.412.56.82
    CALIFORNIA7.83.75-3.684.18
    COLORADO10.72.62.27.513.37.26
    OREGON7.43.58.99.60.66
    OREGON ST6.91.4-2.86.23.12.96
    STANFORD5.23.23.44.85.84.48
    UCLA1.46.46.97.52.74.98
    USC0.10.64.43.110.93.82
    UTAH8.26.74.34.34.85.66
    WASHINGTON13.72.61.415.298.38
    WASHINGTON ST6-0.91.82.8-0.21.9
     
  7. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    I'm not sure how I feel about the HCA stat. I think it's suggestive more than definitive. For example, let's say a team wins 90% of its games at home but 80% on the road. That team would be a +10. If another team wins 50% of its home games and 20% of its road games, it would be a +30. There's value here, but I think that it may point more to being a bad road team (or just plain bad or good) in a lot of cases versus being especially good at home.
     
  8. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Completely agree, the HCA stat in itself only tells part of the story, you need to look at the overall team records in conjunction, but as the sample size gets bigger (5 years is still a relatively small sample size) it does start to actually tell a story. You also need to look at the bigger picture, PPG Home vs Road helps tell that as well as H vs R tempo.


    There is an interesting read here on a study about college basketball HCA. It also may put you to sleep.......

    Or is it all about the ball?
     
    BehindEnemyLines and absinthe like this.
  9. btbuff

    btbuff It's an inside joke Club Member

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    Jgisland if I could rep you I would. Excellent work.
     
  10. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    gotcha covered
     
  11. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    Ken Pomeroy has an article on HCA today featured in ESPN (insider access required). He used a similar methodology as I did, taking home margin of victory vs. away margin of victory. He did this for the all of DI but didn't publish the whole list. He basically found that HCA has more to do with altitude and travel than a hostile crowd, high altitude schools Utah Valley and DU were in the top 10. No mention of CU but worth the read.
     
  12. Nor Cal Buff

    Nor Cal Buff Well-Known Member

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    A lot of research suggests that HCA doesn't have a ton to do with a hostile crowd but rather is mostly from familiarity with surroundings. Of course altitude is another factor that definitely has an impact. It's more geared towards football, but advancednflstats.com has some good posts on the topic of HCA/HFA.
     
  13. DesertDawg526

    DesertDawg526 Resident Dawg Club Member

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    Would not be surprised at all if CU has the biggest HCA in the upcoming years.
     
  14. SECOBuffsFan

    SECOBuffsFan Active Member

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    Boyle has made Boulder a nearly impossible place to win - we should have beaten Kansas in here last year but that was the best team we have faced in Boulder during Boyle's short but fabulous tenure here....it still baffles me how Wyoming beat us.
     
  15. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

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    Maybe the band could signal it by blasting a funeral dirge -- dum, dum, da-dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum, dum.
     
  16. jgisland

    jgisland Club Member Club Member

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    This isn't going to happen, but I think the student section should be moved into the north bleachers, that way the opposing team would have to basically walk through the student section to get to the locker room. I haven't walked out that tunnel, but I have to imagine if you had all of the students jumping up and down on those bleachers it would feel like the roof was going to cave in when you walked through there. Now that would be HCA.
     
  17. Ruckus

    Ruckus Peep my words. Club Member

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    I seriously want the other teams to be afraid to be here. Lets get a coffin in the student section, play funeral music, put fake blood near their bench, write the names and addresses of their family members on posters, bite heads off of bats, all sorts of fun **** we can do.
     
  18. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

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    start at the 00:20 mark. [video=youtube;6PQ6335puOc]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PQ6335puOc[/video]
     

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