Honest thoughts on CSU and where CU needs to look for rivalry

[TDbuff]

On Cincy, you might have forgotten about West Virginia being in the conference as a major geographic outlier (I tend to forget about that). The conference needs to bridge that. Cincy's the best choice, by far, of those options. 2nd best is probably Memphis.

I think Memphis would be a complicated market to get into. Plenty of people graduate from Memphis that will mention their favorite SEC team before saying they went to Memphis. I think a Big 12 venture into CO would have as much to do with CU as it would CSU. Would they bet on Memphis wrestling market share away from the rest of the SEC, or take a chance on CSU taking a chunk of the state with the 3rd highest growth rate where the flagship school is struggling?

I also don't think they used much logic when they added TCU and WVU, so I think their next moves will also seem a bit desperate because they don't have a lot of options. And under those conditions, as bad as CSU might seem to everybody here, I could see how they might appeal to the Texas 10. I wouldn't be surprised if it really came down to the amount glad-handing Jack Graham can do.

 

[CsquaredCC]

Yup, they averaged a whopping 31,292 for a four game home schedule in 1998, what a highlight to fall back on.

Makes you long for those glory days as the average tickets sold this year was an awe-inspiring 18,600 per home game. Big 5 conferences are just lining up to get that financial powerhouse in their leagues.

Hey let's spend hundreds of millions to build a new stadium, we will instantly double our attendance.

http://archive.coloradoan.com/artic...State-s-football-attendance-sinks-42-year-low

You literally are a complete and absolute joke. You have no idea what you are talking about, but continue to act like you do. It really is pathetic.

 

[MtnBuff]

You literally are a complete and absolute joke. You have no idea what you are talking about, but continue to act like you do. It really is pathetic.

You want to argue with the numbers, note they are sourced.

Keep dreaming that 15-20 thousand fans are going to come out of the woodwork to see the sheep in a new stadium. It isn't happening.

CSU draws like an FCS school, they might as well play at that level and stop wasting time and money at the BCS level.

By the way I remember the delusions of grandeur when they renovated Hughes with the Stryker donation in the Sonny years, CSU was on the way to the big time.

Go back and look at the attendance figures on the CSU athletic department website. Simple fact is that attendance has gone from bad to worse, a new stadium isn't going to fix that.

 

[Buffnik]

I think Memphis would be a complicated market to get into. Plenty of people graduate from Memphis that will mention their favorite SEC team before saying they went to Memphis. I think a Big 12 venture into CO would have as much to do with CU as it would CSU. Would they bet on Memphis wrestling market share away from the rest of the SEC, or take a chance on CSU taking a chunk of the state with the 3rd highest growth rate where the flagship school is struggling?

I also don't think they used much logic when they added TCU and WVU, so I think their next moves will also seem a bit desperate because they don't have a lot of options. And under those conditions, as bad as CSU might seem to everybody here, I could see how they might appeal to the Texas 10. I wouldn't be surprised if it really came down to the amount glad-handing Jack Graham can do.

Best reference I can give on this is the analysis from Frank the Tank last Fall.

First, here's the Big 12 map:

Next, here's the relative values of the Big 12 expansion candidates:

Cincinnati - 90 points
BYU - 75 points
SDSU - 67 points
UCF - 65 points
USF - 63 points
Tulane - 58 points
UConn - 57 points
Temple - 53 points
Boise State - 52 points
Memphis - 49 points
Houston - 48 points
New Mexico - 45 points
SMU - 43 points
CSU - 43 points
UNLV - 37 points
Rice - 35 Points

Methodology was very well done. Worth a read. http://frankthetank.me/tag/big-12-expansion/

 

[MtnBuff]

Best reference I can give on this is the analysis from Frank the Tank last Fall.

First, here's the Big 12 map:

Next, here's the relative values of the Big 12 expansion candidates:

Cincinnati - 90 points
BYU - 75 points
SDSU - 67 points
UCF - 65 points
USF - 63 points
Tulane - 58 points
UConn - 57 points
Temple - 53 points
Boise State - 52 points
Memphis - 49 points
Houston - 48 points
New Mexico - 45 points
SMU - 43 points
CSU - 43 points
UNLV - 37 points
Rice - 35 Points

Methodology was very well done. Worth a read. http://frankthetank.me/tag/big-12-expansion/

CSquared isn't going to like this. You have no grasp on reality. CSU is the obvious choice for any expansion scenario, especially when they get that stadium built.

 

[TDbuff]

Best reference I can give on this is the analysis from Frank the Tank last Fall.

First, here's the Big 12 map:



Next, here's the relative values of the Big 12 expansion candidates:

Cincinnati - 90 points
BYU - 75 points
SDSU - 67 points
UCF - 65 points
USF - 63 points
Tulane - 58 points
UConn - 57 points
Temple - 53 points
Boise State - 52 points
Memphis - 49 points
Houston - 48 points
New Mexico - 45 points
SMU - 43 points
CSU - 43 points
UNLV - 37 points
Rice - 35 Points

Methodology was very well done. Worth a read. http://frankthetank.me/tag/big-12-expansion/

Well he doesn't mention my SEC angle to the Memphis market. There's more Ole Miss fans in Memphis than Memphis fans in my experience. The other schools would be fine I guess and better than CSU as programs, but would be more weird leaps in geography with Cali or Florida.

And forget Tulane, if they really wanted to get a foothold in Louisiana, Louisiana-Lafayette would be the way.

 

[CsquaredCC]

That analysis is an excellent snapshot at this point in time of the remaining schools that have any shot of making the leap to a BCS conference. But that is what it is. A snapshot. 10 years ago CSU would have been much higher on that list based on an excellent run on the field. The point that it's fluid and there are few programs on that list making investments of $200 million plus in facilities and have an overall university profile that make it a peer institution to other BCS universities. These are the calculations the leadership at CSU is making. Time will tell if it works.

 

[InTheBuff]

That analysis is an excellent snapshot at this point in time of the remaining schools that have any shot of making the leap to a BCS conference. But that is what it is. A snapshot. 10 years ago CSU would have been much higher on that list based on an excellent run on the field. The point that it's fluid and there are few programs on that list making investments of $200 million plus in facilities and have an overall university profile that make it a peer institution to other BCS universities. These are the calculations the leadership at CSU is making. Time will tell if it works.

36,000 seat stadium on campus.....

that's not going to do it... it's just not

 

[CsquaredCC]

You want to argue with the numbers, note they are sourced.

Keep dreaming that 15-20 thousand fans are going to come out of the woodwork to see the sheep in a new stadium. It isn't happening.

CSU draws like an FCS school, they might as well play at that level and stop wasting time and money at the BCS level.

By the way I remember the delusions of grandeur when they renovated Hughes with the Stryker donation in the Sonny years, CSU was on the way to the big time.

Go back and look at the attendance figures on the CSU athletic department website. Simple fact is that attendance has gone from bad to worse, a new stadium isn't going to fix that.

I have and will continue to argue numbers. The NCAA site only has official records extending back to 1998. However, CSU averaged home sell-outs in 1998, 2002 and 2003 (30-32k). Having gone to school there in the mid-1990's the crowds were similar then with the highest attended game ever being the 1994 game against Utah (approx. 39k) and against WYO the same year (approx 36k). CSU averaged roughly 90-91% capacity (27-28k) in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2004, and 2005. Things started to decline in 2006.

Those are the numbers. You have been proven wrong on this stupid statement that CSU never averaged over 30k during Lubick's tenure time and time again. Yet you for some reason you continue to lie about it.

 

[CsquaredCC]

Someone should have told Houston, because they just built a 40k capacity stadium as well with an eye towards a BCS conference some day.

 

[MtnBuff]

CSquare, post a valid reference to your numbers or shut the **** up. I was in Ft. Collins doing a masters program in the late 80's when Earl Bruce woke the program up. In the best days of Sonny they never, never averaged sell-outs. They has some occasional big crowds but until you can prove otherwise I'll stand by the numbers in the Coloradoan article.

You can dream of a major conference connection but CSU if far away from that and getting further every year. A half empty 36k on-campus stadium isn't going to change that.

 

[Goose]

I would be perfectly happy if I never witnessed another CU/NU game in my life. screw them. I don't want to legitimize their existence.

This.

Nik, you did a great job, and I salute you, but **** Nebraska, **** that game, and **** anyone who wants that to come back. I'm still pissed that Bohn brought it back. Never again.

 

[CsquaredCC]

CSquare, post a valid reference to your numbers or shut the **** up. I was in Ft. Collins doing a masters program in the late 80's when Earl Bruce woke the program up. In the best days of Sonny they never, never averaged sell-outs. They has some occasional big crowds but until you can prove otherwise I'll stand by the numbers in the Coloradoan article.

You can dream of a major conference connection but CSU if far away from that and getting further every year. A half empty 36k on-campus stadium isn't going to change that.

This stuff is not hard to find. Here is a link to the 2003 attendance figures.http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/Attendance/2003.pdf

i will find the others when I am at a computer and can edit the post.

 

[SD Buff]

Here are the numbers from CSU.

I am not going to waste my time to see if all the numbers match with the NCAA - but they have 2006 average at 24,183.



Regardless, CSU is not getting a P5 invite. With or without a stadium. And if Stryker or someone else doesn't come in with a monster donation, issuing bonds for half or more than half of that thing based on projections that would make fantasy land blush - is going to be a huge mistake. I will take no pleasure in the story about how the University and the State got stuck with the bill.

 

[Highlander]

Nik touched on the most important thing: what drives conferences these days is the TV money. There is some debate if Ft Collins is included in the Denver TV market because it is so remote. The Pac 12 would never be interested because they already have access to the market with CU. Outside shot that the Big 12 would consider them if there was an implosion with UT and OU leaving as Nik described.

 

[sackman]

Ft Collins/Loveland/Windsor/Greeley is a rapidly growing area. That's something to keep in mind, too. If CSU can somehow figure out a way to capture that market, they could see some success. I was up in Greeley a couple weeks ago, and US 34 between Loveland and Greeley is filling up with development fast. If current growth rates continue for another 10 years, that will be one continuous metro area with close to a million people in it. Of course, a lot of that growth is due to the oil boom, and oil booms always go bust, so that's something to consider as well.

 

[CUFan]

Ft Collins/Loveland/Windsor/Greeley is a rapidly growing area. That's something to keep in mind, too. If CSU can somehow figure out a way to capture that market, they could see some success. I was up in Greeley a couple weeks ago, and US 34 between Loveland and Greeley is filling up with development fast. If current growth rates continue for another 10 years, that will be one continuous metro area with close to a million people in it. Of course, a lot of that growth is due to the oil boom, and oil booms always go bust, so that's something to consider as well.

This. Colorado is a fast growing state. There is room for two and someone may want a piece of that growth. I think it's clear that CSU will be on some lists for inclusion. Don't know if they make it, but they have a legit shot. The financing on the stadium project is definitely suspect, but what do they have to lose at this point if they want to be included? Now is the time to take the risk if they don't want to be left behind.


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[CsquaredCC]

Here are the numbers from CSU.

Thanks for posting. These match the NCAA statistics I have seen and proves what I have been saying about attendance. Until 2004 Hughes Stadium was a 30,000 seat venue with additional standing room. Which means 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2003 averaged home sell-outs during Lubick's tenure. However, I am sure all of this will be lost on Mtn Buff and he will be back to spreading the falsehood that CSU never averaged 30K in attendance in any given season.

 

[J.R. Ewing]

Ft Collins/Loveland/Windsor/Greeley is a rapidly growing area. That's something to keep in mind, too. If CSU can somehow figure out a way to capture that market, they could see some success. I was up in Greeley a couple weeks ago, and US 34 between Loveland and Greeley is filling up with development fast. If current growth rates continue for another 10 years, that will be one continuous metro area with close to a million people in it. Of course, a lot of that growth is due to the oil boom, and oil booms always go bust, so that's something to consider as well.

CSU needs to worry about winning over their student body first, their allumni second, and Fort Collins third. Greater Northern Colorado is a ways out in the future.

 

[CsquaredCC]

CSU needs to worry about winning over their student body first, their allumni second, and Fort Collins third. Greater Northern Colorado is a ways out in the future.

This. It also needs to grow the student body population which CSU intends to do. The most recent long-range planning projections I have seen from CSU show expanded enrollment to 35k in the next decade.

 

[sackman]

CSU needs to worry about winning over their student body first, their allumni second, and Fort Collins third. Greater Northern Colorado is a ways out in the future.

I agree. But, here's the thing: If CSU ever really wants to get an invite to a BCS conference, one of the things they'll need is a solid population base. They still have a long way to go in that, but it's not as crazy as I would have thought just a few years ago. I'm not kidding when I say that part of Colorado is absolutely booming. A million people isn't a crazy prediction in 10 years. But what you said is totally true - there are a lot of other factors they need to account for as well.

 

[CsquaredCC]

I agree. But, here's the thing: If CSU ever really wants to get an invite to a BCS conference, one of the things they'll need is a solid population base. They still have a long way to go in that, but it's not as crazy as I would have thought just a few years ago. I'm not kidding when I say that part of Colorado is absolutely booming. A million people isn't a crazy prediction in 10 years. But what you said is totally true - there are a lot of other factors they need to account for as well.

I believe the most likely outcome will be the formation of a new conference at some point among the group listed in that analysis. The dividing line will come when full cost of tuition is being paid to student athletes. Schools like Utah State and San Jose State have already made rumblings that they can't afford to do it. I can't imagine Nevada will be able pay the bill with the condition of its athletic department. I think the MWC could be done within ten years and a new 14-team conference formed from some of the schools listed above. The best one I have seen looks like this:

West
BYU
Boise State
New Mexico
San Diego State
Fresno State
Colorado State
UNLV

East
UConn
Cincinnati
UCF
USF
Houston
SMU
Memphis

Basically a merger of the strongest from the Mountain West and American to form a true coast to coast conference to try and leverage television inventory. You could always add the service academies (AFA and Navy) to get to 16 and have more national appeal. I think a realignment among the non-BCS programs is motivating CSU as much as anything when it comes to the new facility plans. The administration is trying to ensure that CSU does not get lost in the shuffle if that type of upheaval in the non-BCS leagues in fact occurs as it almost did when Boise State and SDSU tried to leave the conference.

 

[Darth Snow]

CU needs to start kicking everyone's ass again, and let the hate flow. Done.

 

[Darian3Hagan]

CU needs to start kicking everyone's ass again, and let the hate flow. Done.

That sounds allsome when will it happen?

 

[Buffskier]

That sounds allsome when will it happen?

It officially will start August 29th, 2014.

 

[Highlander]

It officially will start August 29th, 2020.

FIFY (for any realistic hope)

 

[Darian3Hagan]

It officially will start August 29th, 2014.

You are assuring me we are going ot kick csewe's ass? I think some of you forget what nonconference ass kicking looks like. Let me help you.

1995

Sat,Sep 02	Wisconsin	at Madison, Wisc.	W 43-7	ABC
Sat,Sep 09	COLORADO STATE	BOULDER	W 42-14	ESPN
Sat,Sep 16	NE LOUISIANA	BOULDER	W 66-14	KCNC

1996

Sat,Aug 31	WASHINGTON STATE	BOULDER	W 37-19	ABC
Sat,Sep 07	Colorado State	at Fort Collins	W 48-34	ESPN 2

1998

Sat,Sep 05

Colorado State

Denver

W 42-14

ESPN

Sat,Sep 19

UTAH STATE

BOULDER

W 25-6

1999

Sat,Sep 11	SAN JOSE STATE	BOULDER	W 63-35
2001 Sat,Sep 01 Colorado State Denver W 41-14 ABC ▪ Stats Sat,Sep 08 SAN JOSE STATE BOULDER W 51-15 Stats

 

[Buffskier]

FIFY (for any realistic hope)

 

[InTheBuff]

Someone should have told Houston, because they just built a 40k capacity stadium as well with an eye towards a BCS conference some day.

are they in one yet ?

don't see them anywhere near the top of anyone's list but would see they are ahead of csu even if csu buils it's 36,000 seat on-campus stadium-

 

[Quattro]

Someone should have told Houston, because they just built a 40k capacity stadium as well with an eye towards a BCS conference some day.

Good thing Fort Collins is as big as the Houston metro area