1. This site uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Learn More.

How do the Buffs become a bowl team in 2012?

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by Duff Man, Apr 3, 2012.

  1. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    39,753
    Likes Received:
    4,749
    I am not talking about things you would like to see happen, but rather things that need to happen if the Buffs are to get to six wins this year.

    1. Start the season 3-0. This is the easiest opening I have seen in a long time at CU. Fresno State on the road is not a gimme, but it is the type of game we need to start winning to take steps forward as a program. Basically, it is easier to find three conference wins than four.

    2. Connor Wood needs to finish higher in the PAC-12 in passing than Cody Hawkins or Tyler Hansen ever did, probably significantly higher. Here are the finishes in conference passing efficiency over the last several years:

    201112
    20107
    200912
    200812
    200710
    200612

    The last time our QB finished in the top half of the conference? That would be 2005, when Joel Klatt finished 4th. We have played in two passing-dominated leagues in the last several years and failed to break through the bottom third. Wood is going to have to be better than that if we want to not only win six games, but also to be more competitive overall in league games.

    3. Directly related to Wood's success as a QB, Paul Richardson needs to push for all-conference honors. The PAC-12 is loaded at WR. Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Marquess Wilson, and Marqise Lee are four of the top WRs in the entire country. If the Buffs are to have any sort of success this season, Richardson needs to be pushing those guys. We have all seen the potential, now is the time for Richardson to stay healthy and fulfill it. With limited receiving options beyond him, at the moment, there might be no other choice.

    4. The special teams need to take a major step forward. It is no secret that the special teams have been beyond bad for a while now. How bad? Take a look at our finish in the conference in the major categories:

    YearFG %Net PuntingKickoff ReturnsPunt ReturnsKickoff Coverage
    2011128101011
    2010811364
    200910124125
    20081297811
    200767646
    20061029105

    As you can see, we were pretty bad across the board in 2011. Three areas that have really given us issues over the last several years: kicking, punting, and punt returns. With a team that will not be dominant on either offense or defense, the special teams need to pick up the slack. BTW, if you will notice from the table, the best overall season of special teams happens to be the year we last made a bowl game.

    5. Stay healthy. You could argue this should be at the top of the list, but I will go ahead and finish with it instead. In 2011, injuries in the secondary, along with serious injuries to Doug Rippy and Jack Harris really put the team in a bad spot. You cannot avoid injuries in football, but the Buffs need to stay relatively healthy at most positions because the depth simply is not there.

    Thoughts?

    (You will notice I do not really think defense is the key to success this season)
     
    Goose and BuffNut99 like this.
  2. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    48,533
    Likes Received:
    4,526
    Interesting to see that our FG percentage was worst in the league last year. I thought that was one area where we really had some improvement.

    The easy answer to the question is: win six or more games. The tough part is trying to figure out where those wins will come from. Yes, we *should* start out 3-0. So then we have to go 3-6 over the remaining nine games. As much as it hurts, there ain't no way in Hell we'll beat USC, Stanford or Oregon. Home or road, those teams are light years ahead of us still. That leaves roadies at WSU and UA and home games with ASU, UCLA, Utah, and Washington as potential wins. Need to go 3-3 in those games. Frankly, I'm struggling with the idea that we'll go 3-3 in those games. I hope I'm wrong.
     
  3. CUFan

    CUFan Welcome back Club Member

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2010
    Messages:
    6,964
    Likes Received:
    470
    Given our overall lack of talent, experience and depth, it seems like our best hope for a bowl game is with surprising QB success. Given none of our QBs have seen much or any PT, Wood (or whoever starts) needs to have a phenomenal first year.

    With so much youth playing, we are going to lose some games we should win. It seems to me that if we get six wins next year it will be a minor miracle.
     
  4. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    39,753
    Likes Received:
    4,749
    One weird thing about the FG percentage is that with one more FG made, we would have ended up tied for 7th in the conference. Overall, the FG kicking in the PAC-12 apparently sucked.

    Special teams have to be better than that though. We play at altitude for more than half our conference games this season (we did last season as well), so there should finish in the top half of the conference in net punting.
     
  5. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    48,533
    Likes Received:
    4,526
    Stanford agrees with you.
     
  6. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2009
    Messages:
    3,909
    Likes Received:
    57
    We should start 3-0 with wins over CSU, Sacremento State, and Frenso State. CSU and Frenso State have new coaches this year.

    I agree with not being able to beat USC, Oregon, and Stanford this year so that leaves the six games against WSU, UA, ASU, Utah, UCLA, and UW as games that we must go at least 3-3 in order to go to a bowl game.

    It's difficult to say with WSU because we don't know how well the QBs and WRs are clicking in Leach's offense. Same for UA, ASU, and UCLA. Rich Rod's teams that he coached for didn't have good first seasons at the helm so we might have a good chance in Tucson this year. Graham has done a good job getting his teams going in year one but I'm glad the game is in Boulder. UCLA was more of a running team last season and they are going to a more pass friendly offense this coming season. And for Utah, we should beat them since most of their kids that we beat last season are coming back.

    I don't see us beating UW...not with that athletic QB returning and the Huskies will find someone to replace Polk.

    CU should be able to compete for a bowl game this year. Another three win season will lead to dobuts about Embree's future at CU.
     
  7. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    22,246
    Likes Received:
    654
    We start 2-1 and win 1 in conference play to finish with 3 wins
     
  8. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    39,753
    Likes Received:
    4,749
    If we finish with 3 wins, Embree should be on the hot seat.
     
  9. Jaximus

    Jaximus Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2011
    Messages:
    1,744
    Likes Received:
    296
    This year has got to be the toughest to predict. Still a new staff. New players at the biggest impact positions.

    Who knows?! We could win 1 or 8.

    The safest bet is a 5 or 6 win season. Obviously that depends on the ability of Wood, our OL and the incoming freshman on Defense.

    We're likely still a couple years away from possibly seeing a rise to relevance. But I'll take a bowl game or two in the mean time!
     
  10. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    22,246
    Likes Received:
    654
    Didn't say he shouldn't
     
  11. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Messages:
    39,753
    Likes Received:
    4,749
    I know, was not trying to imply anything.

    Three wins would be pretty damn disappointing.
     
  12. BuffNut99

    BuffNut99 Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Nov 19, 2008
    Messages:
    13,088
    Likes Received:
    2,503
    I think we go 6-6 in a rollercoaster of a season - I think we lose one of our first three in crushing fashion (thinking Fresno), but pull off a few huge upsets later in the year after our kids get their sealegs. I'm think we go 4-2 out of (WSU, UA, ASU, Utah, UCLA, and UW), and I am guaranteeing wins over UCLA and Washington. I think Jim Mora is full of sh1t and can't gameday coach worth sh1t either, and we'll be seeing lots of this:

    [​IMG]
     
  13. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    22,246
    Likes Received:
    654
    I'm pretty worried about CSU. On paper I shouldn't be, they are breaking in a new coach and a new QB. They don't have a good track record against us when breaking in a new QB, but something bothers me about them this year. I am actually worried more about them than Fresno
     
  14. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2006
    Messages:
    7,589
    Likes Received:
    847
    Next year, I need to see improvement. Colorado has a very favorable schedule against a lot of new coaching staffs. I understand that rebuilding takes a while, but it is time to see relatively consistent offensive and defensive performances.
     
  15. Jaximus

    Jaximus Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Dec 12, 2011
    Messages:
    1,744
    Likes Received:
    296
    One word: connorwoodneedstoplaylikeagodtogetustoabowlgame
     
  16. buffedup

    buffedup Cooler than a Popsicle Stand. Club Member

    Joined:
    Dec 18, 2006
    Messages:
    7,589
    Likes Received:
    847
    I'm not. They will be playing the very first game under the new coaching staff against a team with superior talent. Embree will be in a huge load of trouble if he loses this game, and I don't think he will.
     
  17. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    48,533
    Likes Received:
    4,526
    CU is not going to lose to CSU. Of the first three games, the Fresno game is the toughest to automatically count as a win. If CU has really gotten the road monkey off it's back, that should be an easy game, too.
     
  18. SBG

    SBG Formerly known as EFNMB Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2006
    Messages:
    6,828
    Likes Received:
    505
    We got beat badly against ASU and UW.

    We need to be competitive in every game. We should win some nailbiters and lose some nailbiters, but be competitive in every game, except UO, USC and Stanford (which we might be able to do; expect a loss, but we should at least be in the game). No more blowouts. We need to go 3-0 to have a shot to make a bowl game.
     
  19. NashBuff

    NashBuff CSU Knob-Slobberer

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2009
    Messages:
    3,909
    Likes Received:
    57
    I don't think anyone should worry about CSU that much. We beat CSU easily in Dan Hawkins' last game against that school and got Embree's first win against them. We have won seven out of the last 11 games at Sports Authority Field against them. The 24-3 win in 2010 was very telling of the talent gap between CU & CSU and will only widen under Embree. The days of competitive CSU-CU games could be coming to a close as well. This year's game could be the last competitve one before CU hammers them all the way to 2020.
     
  20. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    22,246
    Likes Received:
    654
    I don't think Stanford is going to be very good this year. I don't think we'll beat them, but they shouldn't be in the same grouping as SC and Oregon IMO.
     
  21. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    48,533
    Likes Received:
    4,526
    I've heard this exact same thing the last 4 years. The days of competitive CU/CSU games are not coming to an end, they ended.
     
  22. Buffnik

    Buffnik Real name isn't Nik Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    Messages:
    80,772
    Likes Received:
    16,483
    We have to play well on the road this year. Some of our best opportunities for conference wins are on the road (Wazzu, Zona) and we absolutely must win at Fresno State.

    We also need to find a way to reverse some of our road beatdowns when we play Stanford, Washington, ASU and UCLA at home this year. Can we split those?

    In order for this to happen, efficiency is the key.

    Our run defense has to be good enough to put teams in more 3rd and longs so that we can get off the field more often. With lack of depth on the DL, sustained drives will kill us.

    Our offense has to run the ball at over 4 yards a carry (actually closer to 5). That will be a huge factor in also improving our pass efficiency. It's much easier to pass on 2nd and 4 than on 2nd and 9.

    Special teams must win the field position battle for us. We've had games where punting, returns and FG misses reversed field position on us in a bad way and cost us any chance at wins over the past several years. When our average starting field position is inside our 25 and the other team is around their 40, we're usually going to lose.

    Turnovers. Turnovers. Turnovers. I saved the most important for last. The team that wins the turnover battle usually wins the football game. And we're simply not good enough or explosive enough to give the other team more opportunities than us in our games.
     
  23. BlackNGold

    BlackNGold Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    4,505
    Likes Received:
    609
    I agree with most of Boulder's points but I do think defense is going to be a key to improvement...we lost the Cal and WSU games last year because of big lapses on defense....

    The passing game does need to improve...I think the key to Richardson being an impact is if other receiving threats emerge. The don't have to be the caliber of Richardson but be there if Prich is double covered.
     
  24. Highflyer

    Highflyer Moderator Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    11,418
    Likes Received:
    442
    Health and youth stepping up. I know it's general but some of our youth has to rise for any success and if we have the injuries we had last year we are in deep trouble. The depth at LB and DL is just scary.
     
  25. SJBuff

    SJBuff Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    4,707
    Likes Received:
    251
    These are the teams we play with new head coaches in 2012 - I like are chances in every one of these contests
    CSU
    FSU
    WSU
    fUCLA
    ASU
    UA

    5 of the first 6 teams we play will have first year HC's!!!! And the 7the team is a div II team!!!! We bettter win 5 in this stretch or I'm going to be baby punching mad!

    Remember, we were 3-8 in 2000 and went 10-3 in 2001 (most of that with a Juco signal caller). We got enough talent, they just need to play together and believe. How we do in Fresno will reveal where this team is really at.
     
  26. Darth Snow

    Darth Snow Hawaiian Buffalo Club Member Junta Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2008
    Messages:
    56,968
    Likes Received:
    4,979
    BB, I really like your take... but I do want to hear your reasoning as to why the D isn't important. The way I see it, only two units will not have a true frosh starting... OL (not counting TE); and LB.... That leads to huge questions EVERYWHERE, so why did you ignore the D?
     
  27. dply

    dply Doble hoja Club Member

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2008
    Messages:
    20,383
    Likes Received:
    2,472
    Must......not....drink.....what.....Tom...Selleck..... is......serving up.

    Too late. :woot: We're gonna win!
     
  28. Unleash Hell

    Unleash Hell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2005
    Messages:
    22,246
    Likes Received:
    654
    I would say O-line depth is in worse shape than D-line depth
     
  29. sliderNcider

    sliderNcider MacLovin Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2008
    Messages:
    17,283
    Likes Received:
    1,819
    Win all the games we're supposed to (CSU, DIAA, Fresno). And then out coach more talented teams to win 3 more games
     
  30. Shldr2Shldr

    Shldr2Shldr Club Member Club Member

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    16,848
    Likes Received:
    5,005
    We have a very good shot at winning our first 6.

    CSU new coach/they suck
    SacSt D-2 enough said
    Fresno New Coach and not nearly as frightening as they were years ago
    WSU New Coach/ in a completely new offensive system
    UCLA New Coach/ in a completely new offensive system
    ASU New Coach/new offense/ lost a lot of talent this offseason
    USC We wont be them. Not sure if anyone beats them
    Oregon Wont beat them in autzen. Still too much talent
    Furd This one might happen, however it is unlikely
    UA Should beat them. New Coach
    UW This game could be close depending. At this point we should be really solid as a team and firing on all cylinders
    UU Should beat the team to the west.

    I see us falling between 5-8 wins
    Bowl Eligibility is obviously the goal and I think we can get it. What I dont want to see is the team win the first six, then lose the next six, and limp into a bowl game.
     

Share This Page