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How much more will CU improve this season?

Discussion in 'Colorado Football Message Board' started by dio, Jan 9, 2008.

  1. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    I expect a pretty big improvement from the CU Buffs this season.

    It is often the third year of a coaching change in which a team finally breaks out.

    I look to the University of Iowas hire of Kirk Ferentz in 1998 as what I expect for CU (or something similar). Below is an excerpt from Wiki illustrating a program and a coaching change for a program that was in a similar situation to CUs:

    "On December 2, 1998, Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4-19 record, but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid under Ferentz after a 7-5 season in 2001. They beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19-16.

    The 2002 season would prove to be memorable for Ferentz and the Hawkeyes. The team finished the regular season with an 11-1 record, with the only loss coming to in-state rival Iowa State at Kinnick Stadium. They shared the Big Ten Conference championship with Ohio State, as both teams finished 8-0 in conference play. Quarterback Brad Banks won the Davey O'Brien Award for best quarterback and finished second in the Heisman Trophy balloting to Carson Palmer of USC. Tight end Dallas Clark was that season's John Mackey Award winner, and placekicker Nate Kaeding was the Lou Groza Award winner. Ferentz was named Coach of the Year by the Associated Press for his efforts. Iowa received its first-ever BCS invitation, losing to USC in the 2003 Orange Bowl 38-17.

    Despite losing several seniors to graduation, the Hawkeyes compiled a 9-3 regular season record in 2003. They defeated Florida 37-17 in the Outback Bowl on January 1, 2004, for their first January win since 1959. This earned the Hawkeyes a #8 national ranking in both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll at the end of the season. Offensive tackle Robert Gallery was that season's Outland Trophy winner; after the season, the Oakland Raiders chose him with the second overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft."


    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirk_Ferentz

    If anything, the Buffs are ahead of this curve, with greater long-term potential.

    Do the Buffs, even with a grueling schedule, see a similar breakout (9-3 or so) this season?
     
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  2. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Iowa is the last program the Buffs should be striving to emulate.
     
  3. RuffBuff

    RuffBuff Club Member Club Member

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    thats prolly a lil extreme......
     
  4. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    I am not saying they should emulate Iowa, I am using the Iowa coaching change as an example of what often happens during coaching cycles.

    :huh:
     
  5. NW Buff

    NW Buff Club Member Club Member

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    I expect really big improvment on the playing field next year but it might not be reflected in the record. The Buffs have a tough row to hoe next year. @FSU, WVA, Texas, @KU, @Mizzou, @aTm. Those are some tough games.

    The big possitives next year are an offense that has one more year under it's belt and a young offensive line that should play much better together. The OL has been the Buffs big issue in the last few years, IMHO.
     
  6. Highflyer

    Highflyer Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    The 2008 buffs should win 6-8 games next year.
     
  7. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    Okay.

    I think the Buffs are looking at a 8-4 season next year.
     
  8. 66BUFF

    66BUFF FTW Club Member

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    14-0
     
  9. MiamiBuffs

    MiamiBuffs Wᴉɐɯᴉ qnɟɟs Club Member

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    [​IMG]
     
  10. Scotch

    Scotch Registered User Club Member Junta Member

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    :yeahthat:
     
  11. NWD Buff

    NWD Buff Club Sandwich Club Member

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    I was thinking more along the lines of the 2008 Buffs winning 8 games this year and the 2009 Buffs winning 10+ games next year. :lol:
     
  12. Coloradosker

    Coloradosker Active Member

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    Assuming they can find a good RB the offense should improve greatly. You'd have to say that the defense will be down a little losing so many important players. 8 wins is reasonable.
     
  13. buffsyko

    buffsyko Club Member Club Member

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    10 games in 2009? Let's see,lucas,rabid goldfish and nicolas will all be gone,walters and burney gone.

    Better find some top defensive players to fill inat dt and secondary,lb will be fine but DL and DB will be a concern in 2009.
     
  14. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    My very early handicapping of the 2008 season:

    Colorado State (Denver) CU -7
    Eastern Washington CU -14
    AT Florida State CU +5
    West Virginia CU +7

    Texas CU +7
    AT Kansas CU +5
    KSU CU -5
    AT Missouri CU +10
    AT Texas A&M CU +2
    Iowa State CU -9
    Oklahoma State CU -1
    AT Nebraska CU +7


    Buffs will be favored against CSU, Eastern Washington, Kansas State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State. They'll be underdogs in all the rest. If the Buffs go with the chalk, they'll go 5-7. They'll have to pull an upset to make another bowl game.
     
  15. RalphieMalph

    RalphieMalph Well-Known Member

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    You honestly believe that Kansas and kNU are going to be favored to beat us? I sincerely doubt that, Kansas will be coming in to that game with at least 2 losses, and despite the departure of Callahan Neb is likely to be an absolute train wreck for at least the next 12 months. Texas A&M might well fall into this same camp too, it's not like they landed a world beater for their new head coach.
     
  16. Lt.Col.FrankSlade

    Lt.Col.FrankSlade Well-Known Member

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    With all three games being on the road, absolutely I think the Buffs will be underdogs in all three games.

    And Colorado will be going into that game with at least 3 losses.

    Personally, I don't think Nebraska is that far away. Their offense will be good next year, and I suspect the defense will improve dramatically under Pelini.

    That's true, but it's still a road game.
     
  17. MiamiBuffs

    MiamiBuffs Wᴉɐɯᴉ qnɟɟs Club Member

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    Nebraska was actually pretty decent on offense this year. It was their horrible give up 40 points a game defense that killed them. A lot of that was a poor scheme that had too much zone and not enough pressure on the QB. NU has talent on both sides of the ball. Marlon Lucky is probably coming back. Ganz will be the starting QB. For a change, the best players will be on the field. Pelinni knows what he is doing.

    KU appears to be losing Talib and Anthony to the NFL but return most of the rest of their starters including QB Reesing. There schedule also features another fine series of Vanilla and Choclate cupcakes bringing them into Boulder at 5-0.

    08/30/08 vs. Florida International Lawrence, Kan. TBA
    09/06/08 vs. Louisiana Tech Lawrence, Kan. TBA
    09/13/08 at South Florida Tampa, Fla. TBA
    09/20/08 vs. Sam Houston State Lawrence, Kan. TBA
    10/04/08 at Iowa State Ames, Iowa TBA
    10/11/08 vs. Colorado Lawrence, Kan. TBA
    10/18/08 at Oklahoma Norman, Okla. TBA
    10/25/08 vs. Texas Tech Lawrence, Kan. TBA
    11/01/08 vs. Kansas State Lawrence, Kan. TBA
    11/08/08 at Nebraska Lincoln, Neb. TBA
    11/15/08 vs. Texas Lawrence, Kan. TBA
    11/29/08 vs. Missouri Kansas City, Mo. TBA
     
  18. Duff Man

    Duff Man Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I would be surprised to see Kansas come into the game against the Buffs at 5-0. South Florida on the road is no pushover, and neither is Iowa State in Ames for that matter.
     
  19. 66BUFF

    66BUFF FTW Club Member

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    looks like 7-5 for the gayhawks
     
  20. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    It looks like three very probable losses against Oklahoma, Texas and Missouri, with tossups against S Fla, CU, Tech, Nebraska, and KjSU.
     
  21. 77buff

    77buff Well-Known Member

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    The schedule is way too much for a young team, CU will be lucky to win 7 games, but the team will be much improved. It just won't show up in wins.
    The non-conference schedule again will put us behind.
     
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  22. CarolinaBuff

    CarolinaBuff Weekend Poster Club Member

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    I'd say that's a real good assessment of KU next year, so even if you give them 3 of the 5 tossups, that puts them at 7-5, and even 6-6 is plausible.
     
  23. Jerry

    Jerry Well-Known Member

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    If we don't go 8-4 or better, I'll be disappointed.
     
  24. BehindEnemyLines

    BehindEnemyLines beware the habu Club Member

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    Kinda agree. I think 7 wins is doable, but it's a killa schedule. And I think we win a lower tier bowl this go 'round. This team will continue to improve.

    The Buffs will launch in '09.
     
  25. colinski

    colinski Member

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    Thank you 'dio' for this topic -- good job.

    The emphasis in many posts here is on record, and I think that focus is misplaced. Measurables aren't going to tell the story, but we can employ fuzzy metrics and we can look at the progress in certain areas.

    [underlined areas are especially important]

    OFFENSIVE LINE

    The nucleus is in the 2007 crop of OLs, and the 2008 class of OLs is also particularly important for shoring up any remaining weaknesses.

    T - I'd love to hear that story about the star system being meaningless here (just kidding), because Miller has been everything we hoped for, and he's stayed on the steep section of the learning curve. More improvement here, on top of already stellar play.

    T - Tau. I believe he red-shirted (someone please correct me if I'm wrong). There's a lot of talent here but he's going to be replacing Polumbus, even though Polumbus was on the leftside, or weakside. I don't expect him to be better than a senior was, at the beginning, but we'll see a steep trajectory, so it will probably be a story of two seasons -- early and late, for him.

    There should be some interesting stories in the competition for backup at tackle, and we're basically looking at the same story as Tau's, with RSs Atkins and Berhens, if they're not at guard, and others, in the same situation as Tau. Obviously we're talking about a very young line, but we're also talking about quality depth and numbers that we haven't seen since the pre-GB recruiting era.

    Givens and Dannewitz need to add weight, and I see Givens becoming the L-tackle and Miller moving to RT, in time.

    G, C - The main story here is Maiava, and I think we'll see Tuioti-Mariner real soon. Again, more depth than we've seen a while, and without neglecting some of the veterans I think we're looking at strong upward trajectory.

    The improvement of the OL will spill over into other areas -- both offensive and defensive. There's also a synergism within the line. How they play and how long it takes for them to mature will determine, in part, how the team as a whole does.

    WR - The other area, besides OL, that enjoyed a big influx of talent in 2007 is here. This is one area that I expect to see noticeable improvements.

    TE - Hard to tell here. There's certainly some potential in the returnees, and there has been good play, but I see this area as needing improvement. Deehan and Pericak will improve this area in time, but not necessarily this year. Improvement here may come about anyways -- from spillover effects.

    RB - Could be hugely improved, but let's wait to talk about this area.

    QB -- Cody did wonderfully for a RS frosh. He can't help but get better.

    DEFENSIVE LINE

    Strength in the middle, and potential for a dominant performance by Hypolite in 2008. Too little from the edges, although I like some of the others. An infusion of talent would greatly help. A healthy Hudgins would help, even more if he was able to play at his pre-injury potential, but here's one area I think they need to get help this year -- if only for later. Returnees equal better performance but the long term is what's worrisome.

    LINEBACKERS

    Losing Dizon can't help, but the returnees with size, who were missing last year, and the incoming talent, makes this another area of great improvement. I don't expect instant success -- necessarily -- but it's only a matter of time. Major could help here or at DE, which could partly solve the questions there.
    Katoa will pull major time, probably with Sipili. Lots of competition and depth makes this a wonderful area to watch as they grow and gel. Don't forget about Mohler, he should have an immediate impact.

    DEFENSIVE BACKS

    Lots of young guys who have been unnoticed makes this the surprise area. Losing Wheatley can't help, again, but I'm more worried about safety than cover men. Here again, this class of recruits can be extremely important to our future. Becoming strong in the middle of the defense is what's at stake, and we still need the big playmaker to police the center zone and provide run support. Mahnke and Ewing could surprise people, but Woods would help immensely. Look for Vaiomounga to move back now that LB is stocked, and also look for another incoming recruit. Could be a surprise area.

    KICKING GAME

    Looks better. Reports are very encouraging. This is huge for team success and gets 'spit.'

    SPECIAL TEAMS

    We've improved everywhere. This is also hugely important to team success and get's 'squat' for respect. Team depth should make theses areas better, and the staff deserves credit for improvements in these areas.

    OVERALL

    I'm looking at a team that should win 8, but I'm far less concerned with win totals than performance. We're still very young, and we may look much better at the end of the season, after the OL gets more experience together.

    I'm less an optimist than I am a believer in shoring up the lines. OL looks good down the road, but they're still quite young. And the DL needs some more talent at DE, and I don't discount the possibility of returnees emerging but I'm still looking at this as an area where a top DE recruit could help us immediately. The final pieces of this crop of recruits could make difference in the win total, so it's still an open story.

    Great improvement could still come with limited success (i.e., 6 or 7 wins), but the signs point to a fairly strong team, which would equate to 8 wins under most circumstances. Expect some upsets. The odds posted are an artifact of last season -(although I appreciate them as an aid). 2008's team is going to be better than 2007's, so that means a few upsets. There are a lot of intangibles going our way, too. I don't believe in gambling, but it will be a good year to take them against the spread.
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2008
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  26. dio

    dio Admin Club Member Junta Member

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    Wow, great post and analysis. Spot on!
     
  27. sackman

    sackman Club Member Club Member

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    Do you not believe Conrad Obi has the ability to be the pass rushing DE we've been waiting for? Coupled with Herrod, I think this is a strong position for us.
     
  28. buffs6236

    buffs6236 Club Member Club Member

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    :yeahthat: dont know if it will happen but i would be disappointed. i am always disappointed when we lose. I think we will be ok.
     
  29. Highflyer

    Highflyer Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    And Drew Hudgins and Perri. Both of those guys were terrors at getting after the QB at the Juco level. Abe Wright was also a guy that was a terror at the Juco level for us and he worked out all right. I'd like to see more stunts and twists out of the DL this season. Lucas needs to breakout as a pass rusher. He's great against the run, but does not seem to be much of a pass rusher. If he steps up his game next season, look out, this DL will be solid and then some.
     
  30. Highflyer

    Highflyer Moderator Club Member Junta Member

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    I think Ryan Miller is the left tackle for the next 3 years and Tau, Givens, Atkins and Bahr will be battling for the RT position.
     

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